wxcwman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Why is FFC suggesting a change to rain Tuesday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 that's insane. Agreed, it kinda matches up with the CMC which did a good job with the late Jan event identifying the transition zones, and to a lesser extent, amounts. Line from Augusta to Florence could be in for one hell of a Ice Storm, like get your candles out type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 You can't take modeled fzra a face value. Fzra is a self limiting process and it needs continuous reinforcement of cold air to keep accumulating. With the transient parent high Wed...the cold air will not be reinforced enough to offset the latent heat of freezing in the sfc layer. I took a cursory look at some consensus qpf across the Midlands and noted the timing is about 4-5 hrs with sub-freezing sfc temps leading to around 0.3-0.4 ice accum before the transition to rain occurs around 14Z or so. Still a sigfnt and damaging ice potential tho. Hey scott, I have a question: Is there a number attached to the phrase "heavy snowfall accumulations in a text grid fxcast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 KILM Disco is starting to get really interesting... Interesting how ILM favors the GFS to the Euro. Also interesting was that last part of the discussion... ILM is usually pretty doggone conservative, for them to mention Wilmington and Myrtle Beach watch closely not common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Based on that discussion, snow/sleet transition line will be closer to Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 You can't take modeled fzra a face value. Fzra is a self limiting process and it needs continuous reinforcement of cold air to keep accumulating. With the transient parent high Wed...the cold air will not be reinforced enough to offset the latent heat of freezing in the sfc layer. I took a cursory look at some consensus qpf across the Midlands and noted the timing is about 4-5 hrs with sub-freezing sfc temps leading to around 0.3-0.4 ice accum before the transition to rain occurs around 14Z or so. Still a sigfnt and damaging ice potential tho. Yep I know all about the self limiting nature of freezing rain . Gary Lackman who wrote a great paper on that was my advisor. Keep in mind up here at RDU we are being reenforced by diabetic processes (hybrid cad) hence it would take longer to warm to 32-33. So damaging ice would occur if the nam were literally right. With that said it is a model forecast of freezing rain so I take it with caution for no other reason than that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The GFS drops .75 of liquid and it’s all snow imby: confirmed with soundings. This is probably about the best solution in terms of snowfall total for my backyard. I think if you live from atlanta to Charlotte, you should be rooting for the GFS, unless you would rather have sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hey scott, I have a question: Is there a number attached to the phrase "heavy snowfall accumulations in a text grid fxcast? Yeah it has to do with the rate of snowfall...I can't recall the exact rate right now, but I think it's around 2" per hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yep I know all about the self limiting nature of freezing rain . Gary Lackman who wrote a great paper on that was my advisor. Keep in mind up here at RDU we are being reenforced by diabetic processes (hybrid cad) hence it would take longer to warm to 32-33. So damaging ice would occur if the nam were literally right. With that said it is a model forecast of freezing rain so I take it with caution for no other reason than that . I'm sure you do. I was just using your post as an example of why this storm wont output around an inch of ice, like some folks think it may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That doesn't mesh with the Euro at all and would be a much better SLP track for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'm sure you do. I was just using your post as an example of why this storm wont output around an inch of ice, like some folks think it may. Good deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That doesn't mesh with the Euro at all and would be a much better SLP track for NC Yes. Once again, I think a blend of the modeling would do nicely for the majority of the SE crew. Tick the GFS NW a bit, un-amplify the nam and euro and we would have a likely outcome based on the models' traditional biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The CIPS analog probabilities for 6 or more of snowfall have increased, up to 30% over the mountains and I-40 corridor in the western and central parts of NC, looks like the 15% prob runs along I-85. Some good analog years in the mix. Edit: Actually the 30% prob line runs along I-85, and slowly increases as you head NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Thread getting way too big for our database. To reduce sql errors, I've create a new thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42794-the-big-one-forecast-discussion/ I'll be closing this thread in a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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