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Feb 12-13 Sleet/Snow/ZR Event

JoshM

By JoshM,
in Southeastern States

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

CAE starting to give some detail now.....

 

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COMPLEX SITUATION SETTING UP FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY REACHING
THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH COOLER
AIR TO BEGIN ENTERING THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS TUESDAY
MORNING AND STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. TUESDAY
EVENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND TRACK
EASTWARD REACHING THE FL PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY TRACKING ACROSS THE SC
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SITUATION WILL CREATE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINING. MODELS HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEING EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION BREAK DOWN CURRENTLY HAS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AND GOES LIKE THIS...MONDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT RAIN
WILL BEGIN MIXING WITH SNOW ALONG THE NC BORDER AND BEGIN CREEPING
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT REACHING A LINE FROM NEWBERRY TO BISHOPVILLE.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER
30S...HOWEVER THIS WILL PUSH THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION BACK TO
THE NC LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES DROP TUESDAY
EVENING THE WINTRY MIX WILL AGAIN MARCH SOUTHWARD AND ENCOMPASS
ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS PERIOD IS OF CONCERN AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS...WITH GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING THE CSRA. WEDNESDAY WILL
SEE THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION RETREAT NORTHWARD AGAIN WITH
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL THE
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO SURROUND AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS SYSTEM WHICH KEEPS CONFIDENCE
LOW...HOWEVER MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HALF AN
INCH OF ICE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

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RaleighWx

RaleighWx

Posted
Posted

How can the NAM produce that much snowfall? It looks like the 850 line is way north and west in NC.

The snowfall parameter for the NAm and also for those ECMWF runs include ice in it.

 

Just looked at the bufkit soundings, probalby only about 0.45 or so at RDU is actually snow. There is a weak warm nose around 800mb. rrest is sleet or freezing rain

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

Those NE GA counties should not even be served by GSP, not one snow amount given and looks to be heaviest there as well.

gotta disagree with you on that one.  i am one of those counties and gsp does a fantastic forecast for us almost all the time.  ffc is too far removed and with atl metro has enough on its hands already to give us the info we get from gsp.  also, with a slightly higher elevation (although not like in union counties) our microclimate is much more similar to upper sc and adjacent nc

 

we get excellent coverage from them and their forecasts are usually spot on.  they updated the amounts and have us getting a lot of snow (and the amts look pretty good this far out)

 

 

I can promise you right now they'd rather have GSP than FFC.

 

bingo!  i would take that map in a heartbeat, and that might not be all we get lol.

 

better hide the GB posts before lookout gets back or LOOKOUT lolol

 

while there may be a bit shifting back and forth, and sure the rain/snow/ice line will shift i am seeing a pretty decent agreement for the most part that most of us will get a great winter storm.

 

once there are no major shifts taking it away with the 0z runs and s/w onshore hopefully we will be good to go.  the fact we are talking about these kinds of amounts at this point is pretty amazing

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

CAE starting to give some detail now.....

 

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

COMPLEX SITUATION SETTING UP FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONTAL

BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY REACHING

THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH COOLER

AIR TO BEGIN ENTERING THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN

MIDLANDS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS TUESDAY

MORNING AND STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. TUESDAY

EVENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND TRACK

EASTWARD REACHING THE FL PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK. THE LOW WILL

CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY TRACKING ACROSS THE SC

COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SITUATION WILL CREATE AN

EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE

FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH CONSIDERABLE

UNCERTAINTY REMAINING. MODELS HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES

CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS WHICH HAS RESULTED IN

WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEING EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY

FORECAST. THE PRECIPITATION BREAK DOWN CURRENTLY HAS MODERATE

CONFIDENCE AND GOES LIKE THIS...MONDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT RAIN

WILL BEGIN MIXING WITH SNOW ALONG THE NC BORDER AND BEGIN CREEPING

SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT REACHING A LINE FROM NEWBERRY TO BISHOPVILLE.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER

30S...HOWEVER THIS WILL PUSH THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION BACK TO

THE NC LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES DROP TUESDAY

EVENING THE WINTRY MIX WILL AGAIN MARCH SOUTHWARD AND ENCOMPASS

ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THIS PERIOD IS OF CONCERN AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR

FREEZING RAIN WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS...WITH GREATEST

ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN

PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING THE CSRA. WEDNESDAY WILL

SEE THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION RETREAT NORTHWARD AGAIN WITH

ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL THE

PRECIPITATION EASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO SURROUND AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN

ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS SYSTEM WHICH KEEPS CONFIDENCE

LOW...HOWEVER MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HALF AN

INCH OF ICE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

Darlin', it's time to go buy you a good chainsaw.  At least any 18 inch one.  And anybody in line for more than an inch and a half, or two, make sure you have a saw on the block, because with ten trees down and power poles, if there is an emergency you need to be able to cut your way out, and away from the power lines.  I'll never forget Peachtree Street in Buckhead blocked as far as you could see both directions with popping powerlines, exploding oil cans, poles leaning over into the street and trees down all over.  Sparks, and blue, and destruction everywhere...and I mean everywhere.  That's the one thing everybody needed, a saw,  and no one had, but moi :)  And extra chains, which moi didn't have :)   I was watching the folks today when I went for my storm groceries, and realized most of them have never seen the kind of zrain that's being talked about, and they have no idea the kind the stress they may be facing.  Get gas for the grill, candles, whatever you need to be happy for a week in the dark, and bone cold :)  Plenty of Jose, I expect, lol.  T

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

RAH says Winter Storm Watches may be issued within 24 hours.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT:

COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...AND WELL INTO

THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING...STALLING ALONG

WRN/CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MONDAY

NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...AN EXPANSIVE COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE

CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD

INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT

OF COLD DRY AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

AT THE SAME TIME AS THE COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES

EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION

MONDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO RE-SATURATION AND LIFT IN THE MID

LAYERS...WITH RENEWED UPPER DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS THE

ALREADY VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM JET INTENSIFIES FURTHER. THE GFS

AND NAM ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SMEARING LIGHT POST-

FRONTAL PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z TO 06Z...WITH EMPHASIZE

ON THE WORD "LIGHT"...WITH AVERAGE LIQUID AMOUNTS OF ONLY 0.03 TO

0.05". BASED ON PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND SFC WETBULBS...THE AIRMASS

WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL

SNOW/FLURRIES NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRIANGLE(OR US 64 CORRIDOR

NORTHWARD)...WITH A LIGHT RAIN/MIX SOUTH OF THE TRIANGLE...CHANGING

OVER TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL HANG ON TO A

SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ZONES AFTER

MIDNIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A LULL IN

PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BREWING STORM SYSTEM

ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. A FEW

SPOTS...MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE...COULD SEE AS

MUCH AS A DUSTING...BUT GIVEN SUCH LIGHT AMOUNTS...AND RELATIVELY

WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...SUCH AN

OCCURRENCE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED AND THUS NO ADVISORIES ARE

NEEDED AT THIS TIME. IF MODELS COME IN WETTER WITH THE OOZ

PACKAGE...A HALF INCH TO NEAR AN INCH WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS

THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

GIVEN THE WETTER TREND OF THE GFS AND NAM...HAVE LOWER TEMPERATURES

A GOOD 7 TO 10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 30S TO LOWER/MID

40S SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER

30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

...WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN 24 HOURS...

MODEL TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO

BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EAST OF THE

ROCKIES AND EXPECTED CYCLOGENESIS ALONG/OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST

EARLY/MID WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CENTRAL NC WILL

EXPERIENCE ANOTHER (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER

IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE COMPLICATED/CHAOTIC NATURE

OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO DICTATE

ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF APPROACHING

SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ATTENDANT CYCLOGENESIS IN VICINITY OF A POTENT

BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG/OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW (I.E. POLAR VORTEX

CURRENTLY OVER NUNAVUT) WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY AND FAR

NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO TONIGHT-THU...ALLOWING ARCTIC HIGH

PRESSURE TO PLUNGE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST

TODAY/TONIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...THE LEADING

EDGE OF WHICH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AS AN ARCTIC COLD

FRONT LATE MON/MON NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS

THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF SMALL AMPLITUDE

SHORTWAVES TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST

12Z ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE...SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY

IS EXPECTED TO PHASE ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT/WED...WITH

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND

CAROLINAS LATE WED/WED NIGHT...AND A STRONGER/MORE CONSOLIDATED

CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ALONG

THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THE

AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ATTENDANT CYCLOGENESIS REMAINS

DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL

PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND SOME AMOUNT OF CONVERGENCE AMONG

LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT NECESSARILY IMPLY A NARROWER

RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS.

THE BULK OF LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES PRECIPITATION

OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUE AFT/EVE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 12Z

ECMWF INDICATES A PATTERN OF CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE MILLER-B

VARIETY...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE OF A MILLER-A

TYPE SOLUTION. IF A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE DEVELOPS AS GUIDANCE

SUGGESTS...A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE /STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM

ADVECTION/ WOULD BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...

IN ADDITION TO PENETRATING FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR.

THOUGH TIMING/PTYPE/ACCUM/IMPACT REMAIN DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WITH

MUCH CONFIDENCE...IT DOES APPEAR THAT PROBABILITIES OF SIGNIFICANT

WINTER WEATHER HAVE INCREASED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC TUE NIGHT

THROUGH EARLY THU. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE TRENDED THE

FORECAST COOLER/WETTER TUE-THU...WITH PTYPE CORRIDORS CLOSE TO

CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...I.E. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW

IN THE FAR N/NW PIEDMONT...THE BEST CHANCE OF A TRANSITION TO

FZRA/RA SOUTH AND SE OF THE TRIANGLE (FAY/GSB)...AND A WINTRY MIX OF

SN/IP/FZRA ALONG THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR (SOP/RDU/HNZ). DUE TO THE

AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY AND THAT IT IS POSSIBLE PRECIP MAY NOT

FULLY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NC (ESP NORTH OF HWY 64) UNTIL LATE

TUE/TUE NIGHT...IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH...

THOUGH ONE COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN 24 HOURS. -VINCENT

&&

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Sounding for FAY, per the 18z NAM: 0 snow, .18 IP, 2 inches ZR ... we ain't built for that down here.

The big ice storm back in 2002 basically destroyed my yard, fence, and car. My wife actually saw a hickory tree get pulled up by the root ball because of too much ice. I only got 1.25 of freezing rain. If you get 2"......my God.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/

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DueUCMe

DueUCMe

Posted
Posted

From NWS Raleigh:

 

 

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
 

-- Changed Discussion --

AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN 24 HOURS...

 

MODEL TRENDS/CONFIDENCE: THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND EXPECTED CYCLOGENESIS ALONG/OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY/MID WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT) ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE COMPLICATED/CHAOTIC NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO DICTATE ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ATTENDANT CYCLOGENESIS IN VICINITY OF A POTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG/OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

 

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW (I.E. POLAR VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER NUNAVUT) WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY AND FAR NORTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO TONIGHT-THU...ALLOWING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PLUNGE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY/TONIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...THE LEADING EDGE OF WHICH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE MON/MON NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE...SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PHASE ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY TUE NIGHT/WED...WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS LATE WED/WED NIGHT...AND A STRONGER/MORE CONSOLIDATED CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ATTENDANT CYCLOGENESIS REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND SOME AMOUNT OF CONVERGENCE AMONG LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT NECESSARILY IMPLY A NARROWER RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS.

 

THE BULK OF LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUE AFT/EVE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF INDICATES A PATTERN OF CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE MILLER-B VARIETY...WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE OF A MILLER-A TYPE SOLUTION. IF A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE DEVELOPS AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE /STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ WOULD BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN... IN ADDITION TO PENETRATING FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR. THOUGH TIMING/PTYPE/ACCUM/IMPACT REMAIN DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...IT DOES APPEAR THAT PROBABILITIES OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER HAVE INCREASED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST COOLER/WETTER TUE-THU...WITH PTYPE CORRIDORS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...I.E. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FAR N/NW PIEDMONT...THE BEST CHANCE OF A TRANSITION TO FZRA/RA SOUTH AND SE OF THE TRIANGLE (FAY/GSB)...AND A WINTRY MIX OF SN/IP/FZRA ALONG THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR (SOP/RDU/HNZ). DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY AND THAT IT IS POSSIBLE PRECIP MAY NOT FULLY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NC (ESP NORTH OF HWY 64) UNTIL LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT...IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH... THOUGH ONE COULD BE NEEDED WITHIN 24 HOURS. -VINCENT

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