WNC_Fort Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Starting to get really excited here in WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 If this verifies then it's a major fun time for all under the sleet kapow. Those two dates, plus my fav in 59 or early 60's, are the best storms for fun ever. Ever!!! I've been waiting on this to occur again for a long, long time. I'm still not letting myself go all in, but I will if it's still there tomorrow. Been disappointed too many times by a big sleet that never became real, lol. No amount of snow trumps 4 inches of sleet. That is just sledding heaven, if it gets cold after. T Tony, I'll forever remember this one as the Tony storm if it is mainly sleet in and around ATL. You've been talking about how the Gulf moisture has been lingering as well as a nice supply of cold air and patiently waiting for them to meet just right but with cautious optimism as I recall. Tony, this one is for you lol. By the way, I think sig. IP will get down to near you but you'd have more threat of major ZR vs. northern burbs. You'll probably get a fair bit of both but I'm hoping it is mainly IP for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I was at softball practice... Did I miss anything?? Haha! This is going to be fun trying to forecast what happens down here in Columbus. It looks like we could be right on the line of the freezing rain line... Should be interesting. Hey, CandyMan...let me know when you know I'm loving riding on the screaming edge, since that's where you have to be to get the good sleet, but it's also scary, lol. Maybe this the central Ga mauler we missed out on last time. I just hope it isn't zrain the whole time for you. I guess they'll be locking you in at work pretty soon. If you get sleet make sure you have a skeleton key so you can escape. Nothing beats inches of sleet. Snow can't hold a candle to it. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro ENS mean is maybe a whisker east of the Op, temps/precip look the same as the Op Do you remember how the new ens mean compares to last night? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Starting to get really excited here in WNC Trends looking a little better but I wouldn't get too excited just yet for mountain areas. GFS was east and Euro was east of the 00Z runs. If that continues then we will miss out on the big snow event. I think tonight's runs will be huge because the system out west should already be fully sampled by the upper air network. 00Z runs may finally merge into a common solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Still awaiting watches from KGSP Agree this is the right call as of now. A lot riding on this one FXUS62 KGSP 091958 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 258 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST...BEFORE A COLD AND MOIST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA ON MONDAY. A WINTRY PATTERN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 240 PM EST SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE FROPA IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY DRY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL NOW AGREE IN DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LIGHT PCPN BEHIND THE FRONT...STARTING OVER THE NC MTNS DURING THE MORNING...WHICH THEN SPREADS EAST DURING THE DAY. BASED ON A MODEL BLEND OF QPF AND A STRAIGHT 10 TO 1 SNOW RATIO...I GET AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH LIGHTER TOTALS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ACROSS THE SMOKIES. WITH COLD AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE NE ZONES DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...I HAVE A PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPING AS WELL ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS GENERATE SNOW AT CHARLOTTE. THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...BUT THE BNDRY LAYER LOOKS A LITTLE TOO WARM. AT ANY RATE...GROUND TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM...SO MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD INITIALLY ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SFCS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING OVER PARTS OF THE NC MTNS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...AND SLICK ROADS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MY TOTALS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO NO PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...IT WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL QPF TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT LEAST OVER THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF EARLY SUN AFTN...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY WX BEGINNING LATE MON NIGHT AS BACKDOOR ARCTIC FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE CWFA. GUIDANCE FINALLY SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION AT LEAST THRU TUE...WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT CREATING BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE SRN PART OF THE CWFA OR POSSIBLY CENTRAL GA AND THE SC MIDLANDS. ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP A LITTLE SOONER AND THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE ON THIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO OUR AREA...GENERALLY TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. WHILE PRECIP MAY NOT EXHIBIT A PARTICULARLY SHARP CUTOFF GOING FURTHER NORTH...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY LOOKS MOST LIKELY ALONG OUR SERN BORDER. PREVIOUS FCST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THERE WOULD BE A LULL BETWEEN THE PRECIP GENERATED AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA AND LATER IN THE PERIOD WHEN ERN GULF SFC LOW DEEPENS AND BEGINS TO TRACK UP THE COAST IN A /MILLER A/ TYPE SCENARIO...REINFORCING THE LLVL FORCING. THERE IS STILL SOME SUGGESTION THAT POPS MAY DIMINISH TUE NIGHT...OR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHTER PRECIP RATES...BUT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO EXPECT SOME PRECIP TO CONTINUE OVER THE SRN/ERN ZONES INTO WED AS THAT LOW DEVELOPS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A NON-EC CONSENSUS...THE GFS AND NAM SEEMINGLY CLOSE IN TERMS OF THE LOW TRACK. EC IS MORE ONSHORE AND THUS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS WITH THE NEW 12Z RUN. GFS ENSEMBLE BACKS UP MORE BENIGN QPF TOTALS LIKE THE OPNL GFS. QPF HAS BEEN INCREASED THRU THE PERIOD BUT STILL REFLECTS A MODEL BLEND...THOUGH THE HIGHER EC TOTALS ARE INCLUDED IN THE BLEND. IN THE PRESENCE OF THE DRY ARCTIC AIR AND PRECIPITATION FALLING THEREIN...WET BULB EFFECTS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN AND LIKELY NEAR STEADY OR EVEN DROPPING THRU THE DAY BOTH TUE AND WED. SOME GUID WED WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING THRU THE DAY. FAVORED BLEND KEEPS TEMPS BORDERLINE BUT STILL PERMISSIVE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE SFC. PTYPE OF RA/SN LOOKS BEST THROUGH 00Z WED WITH STRENGTH OF WARM NOSE QUESTIONABLE THIS FAR NORTH. PROG SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE FA ARE ALL BELOW FREEZING INTO TUE NIGHT EXCEPT ALONG OUR SERN BORDER. THOSE AREAS ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE FZRA OR SLEET MIX IN...BEFORE WARM NOSE MORE LIKELY PUSHES NORTH EARLY WED. FAIRLY DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER NEAR 0C SHOULD ENHANCE SNOW RATIOS. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WED NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 145 PM EST SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON THURSDAY AS THE WINTER PRECIP EVENT IS WINDING DOWN. ALOFT...THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF AXIS WILL LIKELY BE RIGHT OVER THE FCST AREA AS WE BEGIN THE MEDIUM RANGE. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS...THE WAVE LIFTS TO THE NE...HOWEVER ANOTHER LOBE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ROTATES BACK OVER THE AREA IN ITS PLACE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE A FAIR AMOUNT WRT THE PATTERN PROGRESSION. THE NEWER 12Z RUN OF THE GFS MOVES THE SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY NE OF THE CWFA BY SAT MORNING AND THEN DEVELOPS A 3RD WAVE OF ENERGY/PVA FOR NEW DAY 7 ON SUN. THE ECMWF HOWEVER...IS SLOWER TO LIFT THE 2ND WAVE ON SAT AND THEN FLATTENS OUT THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IF YOU LOOK TOWARDS DAY 8...THE ECMWF APPEAR TO DEVELOP THAT 3RD UPPER WAVE...BUT THIS OBVIOUSLY BEYOND NEW DAY 7. AT THE SFC...THE OVERALL EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT AS CLEAR/COHERENT COMPARED TO THE UPPER LVLS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE LATEST 12Z GFS HAS THE CENTER OF THE LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALREADY MOVING EAST OF THE CWFA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTERED FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND HAS SIG MORE WRAP AROUND DEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. BOTH MODELS DRY THINGS OUT CONSIDERABLY BY 00Z FRI WITH THE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL NW FLOW PRECIP/SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALTHOUGH I DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY QPF BEYOND ROUGHLY 18Z THURS DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE. EARLY FRI...THE GFS MOVES A FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT OVER THE FCST AREA WITH DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT...WHILE THE ECWMF IS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HRS SLOWER WITH THE FROPA. BY EARLY SUNDAY...THE GFS SPINS UP ANOTHER LOW TO OUR NW AND MOVES ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS. BY 18Z HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ONCE AGAIN. THE ECMWF KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THRU SUNDAY. HOPEFULLY MANY OF THESE INCONSISTENCIES WILL DISSOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...TEMPS WILL WARM THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY NEW DAY 7 NEXT SUNDAY. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Do you remember how the new ens mean compares to last night? Thanks! Looks the same, a little colder on the 12z run. Looks to be slightly more wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Winter Storm Watch for much of Central GA for a tenth of an inch of ice or less. Wow, this could be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Tony, I'll forever remember this one as the Tony storm if it is mainly sleet in and around ATL. You've been talking about how the Gulf moisture has been lingering as well as a nice supply of cold air and patiently waiting for them to meet just right but with cautious optimism as I recall. Tony, this one is for you lol. By the way, I think sig. IP will get down to near you but you'd have more threat of major ZR vs. northern burbs. You'll probably get a fair bit of both but I'm hoping it is mainly IP for you. Thanks man! Yep, you just can't have the highs coming down, and that moisture underneath, without some good chances at a merger!! I could just feel a sleet storm coming since late Dec.... Tony's storm....if it wasn't a z monster And I see no reason this can't go on through early March, unless major changes occur. Like I just told Cman, I love riding the ragged edge because that's where the magic happens, but it's danged scary too. Don't mind a mix, just don't want to see the airport with 4 inches of sleet, and me with 2 and 2 of zr. lol. We'll know more later, but for now I'm optimistic. You sure have been able to get the most out of the Doc this month..and I've been looking more to Goofy. You and the Doc look to be big winners. Too bad you're in Sav. I know you loved 79 too! I worry about Shawn I may have worried him a bit about the joys of a major zr attack, lol. Sure, I'm scarred for life by 73, but I lived, and thrived, and he and Michelle will to, if hell descends on them, as will Cman, and Chris....but therapy might be in order T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Still awaiting watches from GSP && It is still too early for that since we are talking about a Wednesday event. Lots of time left for things to change or for the storm to trend east away from the CWFA. No headlines with this afternoon package is the right call IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think this thread should be officially renamed " The Tony Storm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Any thoughts on the 18z nam? It looks pretty good so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Thanks man! Yep, you just can't have the highs coming down, and that moisture underneath, without some good chances at a merger!! I could just feel a sleet storm coming since late Dec.... Tony's storm....if it wasn't a z monster And I see no reason this can't go on through early March, unless major changes occur. Like I just told Cman, I love riding the ragged edge because that's where the magic happens, but it's danged scary too. Don't mind a mix, just don't want to see the airport with 4 inches of sleet, and me with 2 and 2 of zr. lol. We'll know more later, but for now I'm optimistic. You sure have been able to get the most out of the Doc this month..and I've been looking more to Goofy. You and the Doc look to be big winners. Too bad you're in Sav. I know you loved 79 too! I worry about Shawn I may have worried him a bit about the joys of a major zr attack, lol. Sure, I'm scarred for life by 73, but I lived, and thrived, and he and Michelle will to, if hell descends on them, as will Cman, and Chris....but therapy might be in order T I think you did scare Shawn....me on the other hand....if I'm getting ice, it had better be one I'm gonna remember for years to come. I'm not sure of the highest ice accum's here at cae, but one would think if the totals were cut in half from todays output, it would be close to setting records Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Nam out to 54 looks strong with the southern energy def stronger than it's 12z counterpart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'm hearing the NAM looks like a bunch of rain for ATL and BHAM on Monday Night/Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I will bet on any precip in my area on late Monday and Tuesday will be rain, if it makes it to the ground from the overrunning. The air temp will be in the 40s inmby, guarantee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Nam much wetter with the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 If I'm reading the 12z runs properly (and it's hard on my little backup screen here) the Sandhills over to about US 1 could be looking at a 50-50 Snow vs. IP/ZR run....meaning abt 4-5 inches SN and a half inch IP/ZR on top. It would REALLY be nice for one more eastward tick of the SLP. Not enough to endagers the WNC folks, Lord love 'em, but enough to keep the power on at the senior center here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 At 60 to my untrained eye it looks like the northern energy is def digging further south with precip rapidly developing over MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 18z NAM looks awesome. By hour 69 6-8 inches of snow across all of NC. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not sure if it's the 60 or 63 image but the storm has already begun to phase. 850 maps are responding it has .25" contour line up into southern va at 66 nc and sc as well. Precipitation maxima in ms,al and ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Is there more energy on the backside of the 18z nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Is there more energy on the backside of the 18z nam?Yes and the precip expansion is good too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NAM is just tracking the low too far inland by 75. WAA kicking in and turing everything over to sleet/ZR but not after 8 inches of snow falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 No big deal on the NAM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 No big deal on the NAM tonight. The NAM is like the energy bunny. It just keeps going and going. Looks good for all of NC and a slam dunk for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For CLT to RDU NAM is just a dump, then like an inch of sleet then back over to snow. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Meteorologist Jim Loznicka Our latest forecast model suggests a significant ICE STORM will hit Atlanta hard on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Like · · Share · 41 minutes ago near Atlanta, GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NAM is nasty. Lots of snow for RDU and then significant period of freezing rain too it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NAM is just tracking the low too far inland by 75. WAA kicking in and turing everything over to sleet/ZR but not after 8 inches of snow falls.Yea I was just gonna say that burg 850 line pushed up into northern nc but 2m temps are unreal that is sick how far south they are entrenched. Awesome run for everyone maybe euro was onto something more amplified and a little too far inland ok for me but not as good for nc and south freezing rain wise. Everyone knows Nam's bias for over amplifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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