GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Is that considering latent heat release from IP or ZR? Greg, There will be a fresh supply of cold air from NE winds throughout to combat any latent heat release from ZR freezing. I don't think that is even an issue with IP unless I'm mistaken. Anyhow, I'm saying that if there is a ZR for which the temp. hangs out at 31-32 for much of it for the coldest (I've read about many like that), that can easily be very bad on the trees/lines especially though roads may do ok outside of bridges. I've seen a few comments on occasion to the contrary. 1/1973 was like this and it was one of the worst ever! Ask Tony! I'm not saying that makes it the worst kind. I'm just saying it still can be very bad as per history. edit: May not be able to post for a while..too busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Verbatim it's 90% ice, not snow for RDU. CLT/GSO/INT mostly snow, 8-10". Like I said above, the SLP shifts east we get more snow, shifts more west, we get rain. The TV guy in High Point says a 6-8" iis certainly possible. However, this far out it would be an unwise forecasts. Odds of that much snow are currently around 20-30%. Good chance that type of forecast would blow all credibility and trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 My interpretation of Euro for RDU. 1.2 inches of total QPF Light dusting during day Tuesday, but band of snow stays south of Triangle during the day. Light snow starts early Wednesday morning, looks like there is certainly 2-3 inches of snow through 1pm. Between 1-7pm we switch over most likely to sleet. So maybe 3-4 inches of snow, and then 0.3 inches of QPF in the form of sleet or maybe freezing rain through 7pm Wednesday. Then another 0.3 inches of QPF from 7pm Wed to 1am Thursday likely in the form of sleet or freezing rain. Ending probably around 1am Thursday. Interestingly enough as the ECMWF cranks the low off the Capes, a wrap around band of snow moves in during the day on Thursday with additional 1-2 inches of snow on top. So all toll, something like 3-4 inches of snow to start, 0.5-0.6 inches of QPF in the form of sleet or freezing rain, my guess is mostly sleet. then another 1-2 inches as the storm comes to a complete end Thursday. 4 to 6 inches of snow with ice. That would be a mess and create havoc on the roads. And of course there could be more snow if it keeps trending east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looks like the latest run of the SREF is coming in wetter with that initial wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The TV guy in High Point says a 6-8" iis certainly possible. However, this far out it would be an unwise forecasts. Odds of that much snow are currently around 20-30%. Good chance that type of forecast would blow all credibility and trust. FYI...was wrong about CLT looks like 3-5" snow with rest sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Good deal! Delta, you, and I! To clarify what I said. IF ATL is mainly IP, then I'm guessing it gets down to ~25 at the coldest vs. the 12Z Euro's 32. However, if it is mainly ZR, then I'd go more with ~27-28 for the coldest as of now...so say ~5 too warm if mainly ZR. Edit: Folks, If 31ish for coldest in ZR, can still be VERY bad!!! Think 1973! Ask Tony. Maybe we can take bets on how cold/warm it will be compared to what actually happens lol No doubt 31 would be cold enough to cause serious problems on power lines, trees, etc. . The depth of the cold air and how thin and cool the mid level warm layer is on other models sounding would mean the drops themselves will be very cold by the time they hit the surface. It makes a big difference if those rain drops fall through a real deep and warm mid level layer and a very shallow subfreezing layer at the surface. That's why sometimes you have a lot of accumulation at 31 and other times you don't. Precip rates also make a difference. You have more freezing if it's a steady and not too precipitation rate. So there are quite a few factors to consider in determining how much actually freezes on objects instead of running off on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 OK looks like the euro goes neg with the trough a little later compared to the Canadian which explains the orientation of the precip shield. Small details to iron out but could really affect totals NC on north.yeah and a little later than last night. Would like to see it go negative earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 SREF much wetter. Has 1 inch of QPF getting into CLT. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 FYI...was wrong about CLT looks like 3-5" snow with rest sleet. Does i-40, hickory, statesville, Winston have sleet also on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 SREF much wetter. Has 1 inch of QPF getting into CLT. Wow. Wow, impressive for the sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 FYI...was wrong about CLT looks like 3-5" snow with rest sleet. Verbatim yes, but I'll bet it's wrong with just how much cold air is there. CLT would be one of those areas that probably has a sharp cutoff 30 miles in almost every direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wow, impressive for the sref It's track is a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwisephotog Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Does i-40, hickory, statesville, Winston have sleet also on the euro? Hickory should be all snow... Don't really know about statesville or Winston.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 You are correct man. Much wetter all the way back into the mountains. It's track is a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Maybe we can take bets on how cold/warm it will be compared to what actually happens lol No doubt 31 would be cold enough to cause serious problems on power lines, trees, etc. . The depth of the cold air and how thin and cool the mid level warm layer is on other models sounding would mean the drops themselves will be very cold by the time they hit the surface. It makes a big difference if those rain drops fall through a real deep and warm mid level layer and a very shallow subfreezing layer at the surface. That's why sometimes you have a lot of accumulation at 31 and other times you don't. Precip rates also make a difference. You have more freezing if it's a steady and not too precipitation rate. So there are quite a few factors to consider in determining how much actually freezes on objects instead of running off on the ground. The trend of the first wave maybe being lighter I think helps anyone in your region who wants more frozen precip, especially ATL/MCN, you don't really want to saturate the atmosphere at 10pm tomorrow night with rain when its a 42/30 spread and then be at 37-39 and have a hard time advecting the wedged dry air in...best case is probably the first wave to be little or nothing or at least hold off til after 06-12Z which would allow for evaporative cooling when the atmosphere is in a better state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 News 14, euro model Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/432598804592730113 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I was at softball practice... Did I miss anything?? Haha! This is going to be fun trying to forecast what happens down here in Columbus. It looks like we could be right on the line of the freezing rain line... Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Does i-40, hickory, statesville, Winston have sleet also on the euro? GSO mixes a little, but INT should be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 SREF much wetter. Has 1 inch of QPF getting into CLT. Wow. That is impressive. With as much spread as they usually have with its individual members, there must be some bombs! The plumes will be fun to look at in a bit! Some must be like the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 CAE just put this out for its CWA: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC242 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 ... LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-BAMBERG-...242 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014...INCREASING CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THEMIDLANDS AND CSRA FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM TUESDAY MORNINGTHROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO BRING AWINTRY MIX TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATINGSNOW WITH BOTH SYSTEMS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...ALONG WITH THENORTHERN CSRA...WILL HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A MIXTURE OFFROZEN PRECIPITATION...RANGING FROM SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...ANDICE PELLETS. THAT REGION WILL HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEEINGFROZEN PRECIP FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.AT THIS TIME THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THESESYSTEMS. THIS UNCERTAINTY INCLUDES THE TRACK OF THESE LOWS...THESURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THESE EVENTS...AND EVEN WITH WHATTYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY FALL. WINTER STORM WATCHESAND WARNINGS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS.THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TOTHESE EVENTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 **FFC has adjusted the WSWatch** Increased time frame and added new counties. 247 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING...* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA TO HOMER.* HAZARD TYPES...A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 2 TO 4 ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.* TIMING...THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL BEGIN ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY EVENING...AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SWITCH TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THIS THREAT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEDNESDAY DAY PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. ICE WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON ROADS TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ICING WILL ALSO ACCUMULATE ON TREES AND POWER LINES WHICH COULD BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POSSIBLY SOME POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT...REMAINING IN THE 30S TUESDAY...THEN FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT.* UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. FOLKS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY IN THE EVENT THAT THIS WATCH IS UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY OR WARNING.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Different wording on the WSWatch for Central GA: 247 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED AWINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENINGTHROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...NORTH AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAMILTON...TO WARNER ROBINS...TO LOUISVILLE.* HAZARD TYPES...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH FREEZING RAIN BEING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.* ACCUMULATIONS...ICING AMOUNTS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.* TIMING...BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS THREAT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEDNESDAY DAY PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.* IMPACTS...ICING ACCUMULATE ON ROADS MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. ICING WILL ALSO ACCUMULATE ON TREES AND POWER LINES WHICH COULD BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POSSIBLY SOME POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S.* UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST AND SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. FOLKS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY IN THE EVENT THAT THIS WATCH IS UPGRADED TO AN ADVISORY OR WARNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's track is a thing of beauty. JB, Do you think you could post a map of the SREF? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Here it is at 81 JB, Do you think you could post a map of the SREF? Thanks! 09Z run at 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The SREF plumes are out. Over 4 inches for the triad and over 5 inch mean snowfall for Charlotte. Looking good! There was one ensemble that looked like the Canadian. The 21z should really up the ante if everything stays on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looking like 2/1979 and 1/1988 to me as of right now! If mainly IP, Guessing ~3-4" of IP accumulation and more total accum. if there is sig. snow. Euro 2 meter temp.'s ~5 too warm imo! If this verifies then it's a major fun time for all under the sleet kapow. Those two dates, plus my fav in 59 or early 60's, are the best storms for fun ever. Ever!!! I've been waiting on this to occur again for a long, long time. I'm still not letting myself go all in, but I will if it's still there tomorrow. Been disappointed too many times by a big sleet that never became real, lol. No amount of snow trumps 4 inches of sleet. That is just sledding heaven, if it gets cold after. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro ENS mean is maybe a whisker east of the Op, temps/precip look the same as the Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Here it is at 81 09Z run at 81 THANK YOU SO MUCH Bud!!! Hoping all is well with you and yours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 WOW the SREF really amped up the precip at Asheville. Nearly a 7 inch mean with a member at 18 inches and one at 15 inches. It's a fixin to get good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Starting to get really excited here in WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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