GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 WSI RPM shows no snow for ATL proper but not too far away to the north Tuesday. Then it has a raging sleet storm over all of the Metro all night into Wed. I hope that is the case over ZR any day. Looking like 2/1979 and 1/1988 to me as of right now! If mainly IP, Guessing ~3-4" of IP accumulation and more total accum. if there is sig. snow. Euro 2 meter temp.'s ~5 too warm imo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 WSI RPM shows no snow for ATL proper but not too far away to the north Tuesday. Then it has a raging sleet storm over all of the Metro all night into Wed. I hope that is the case over ZR any day. Great news on the fact that there is no ZR! Do you agree that we're looking at almost all sleet for the second wave? Or do you think we could sneak in a few inches of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 My interpretation of Euro for RDU. 1.2 inches of total QPF Light dusting during day Tuesday, but band of snow stays south of Triangle during the day. Light snow starts early Wednesday morning, looks like there is certainly 2-3 inches of snow through 1pm. Between 1-7pm we switch over most likely to sleet. So maybe 3-4 inches of snow, and then 0.3 inches of QPF in the form of sleet or maybe freezing rain through 7pm Wednesday. Then another 0.3 inches of QPF from 7pm Wed to 1am Thursday likely in the form of sleet or freezing rain. Ending probably around 1am Thursday. Interestingly enough as the ECMWF cranks the low off the Capes, a wrap around band of snow moves in during the day on Thursday with additional 1-2 inches of snow on top. So all toll, something like 3-4 inches of snow to start, 0.5-0.6 inches of QPF in the form of sleet or freezing rain, my guess is mostly sleet. then another 1-2 inches as the storm comes to a complete end Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looking like 2/1979 and 1/1988 to me as of right now! If mainly IP, Guessing ~3-4" of IP accumulation and more total accum. if there is sig. snow. Euro 2 meter temp.'s ~5 too warm imo! I agree with the 2m temps. That would put me at 29-31 with a skating rink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 My interpretation of Euro for RDU. 1.2 inches of total QPF Light dusting during day Tuesday, but band of snow stays south of Triangle during the day. Light snow starts early Wednesday morning, looks like there is certainly 2-3 inches of snow through 1pm. Between 1-7pm we switch over most likely to sleet. So maybe 3-4 inches of snow, and then 0.3 inches of QPF in the form of sleet or maybe freezing rain through 7pm Wednesday. Then another 0.3 inches of QPF from 7pm Wed to 1am Thursday likely in the form of sleet or freezing rain. Ending probably around 1am Thursday. Interestingly enough as the ECMWF cranks the low off the Capes, a wrap around band of snow moves in during the day on Thursday with additional 1-2 inches of snow on top. So all toll, something like 3-4 inches of snow to start, 0.5-0.6 inches of QPF in the form of sleet or freezing rain, my guess is mostly sleet. then another 1-2 inches as the storm comes to a complete end Thursday. Thanks Allan. Good grief what a mess. Go home early and stay home on Wednesday if you're in the Triangle folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I agree with the 2m temps. That would put me at 29-31 with a skating rink I hope someone keeps a record of the Euro and other model 2 meter temp.'s today or saves the maps so we could see what verifies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 WSI RPM shows no snow for ATL proper but not too far away to the north Tuesday. Then it has a raging sleet storm over all of the Metro all night into Wed. I hope that is the case over ZR any day. I take it that would also mean sleet all the way to the al border and no zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For everybody thinking that's a shaft for RDU, 2" of sleet is significant. Add that to 3" of snow and it's like a 7-8 snow. I'll take this with a smile. Indeed. Sledding conditions will be stellar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z euro clown map here. Obviously overdone snowfall in ice areas but sniffs out insane ice for midlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yeah i would say if the GGEM freezing rain forecast was right that would be catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z euro clown map here. Obviously overdone snowfall in ice areas but sniffs out insane ice for midlands. Looks like the heavy amounts have shifted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z euro clown map here. Obviously overdone snowfall in ice areas but sniffs out insane ice for midlands. That looks pretty decent for WNC considering we aren't part of the 'Ice area', no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z euro clown map here. Obviously overdone snowfall in ice areas but sniffs out insane ice for midlands. Yeah i would say if the GGEM freezing rain forecast was right that would be catastrophic. Cutting those totals in half would still be insane for cae Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'm happy. That's about alli can say right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I hope someone keeps a record of the Euro and other model 2 meter temp.'s today or saves the maps so we could see what verifies! I just saved a bunch of Euro two meter maps from today's 12Z run to see how they verify. They have 32 as ATL's coldest. If ATL gets mainly IP, I expect it to get down to at least ~25. So, I'm thinking they're about 7 too warm for ATL on this run (not everywhere in GA obviously). Let's see what happens. Right or wrong, I plan to post about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z euro clown map here. Obviously overdone snowfall in ice areas but sniffs out insane ice for midlands. Yeah amazingly very little of that is actually snow in central SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I hope someone keeps a record of the Euro and other model 2 meter temp.'s today or saves the maps so we could see what verifies! I think I might do that later today. Still thinking major ice storm around MCN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looks like the heavy amounts have shifted east.That would be lower in our area because of the mixture of sleet. See Allen's comments above for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think I might do that later today. Still thinking major ice storm around MCN? Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yep ok thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I hope someone keeps a record of the Euro and other model 2 meter temp.'s today or saves the maps so we could see what verifies! exactly. I'm going to try and save some images myself if I have the time. I hope others do the same. It sure would help us out a lot in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think I might do that later today. Still thinking major ice storm around MCN? Screams ZR as it is for your area to me....but I'll be this keeps trending colder as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 CAE at 1:36pm updated, but didn't change any wording .SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WINTER WEATHER DEVELOPING ACROSSTHE AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDSBEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOWAVERAGE AS FAR AS THE EXTENT OF WINTER WEATHER AND PRECIP AMOUNTSGIVEN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.AS COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINSINTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHEDSOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MONDAY. INCREASINGMOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OFLIGHT RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ABAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND COLD CANADIAN HIGHPRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTCOAST WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THEN HEAD EASTWARDACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS SHOW PERIODS OFISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THEBAROCLINIC ZONE AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THELIKELY CATEGORY...WHICH ARE CONSERVATIVE...FROM TUESDAY THROUGHWEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN CAD...HAVE LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS TO LEANCLOSER TO OUR WEDGE TECHNIQUE. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAYTO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. HAVEINDICATED MIXED RAIN/SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS ANDPIEDMONT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...KEPT PRECIP ALL LIQUID FROM THECENTRAL MIDLANDS SOUTHWARD TO THE CSRA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILLUNCERTAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 exactly. I'm going to try and save some images myself if I have the time. I hope others do the same. It sure would help us out a lot in the future. Good deal! Delta, you, and I! To clarify what I said. IF ATL is mainly IP, then I'm guessing it gets down to ~25 at the coldest vs. the 12Z Euro's 32. However, if it is mainly ZR, then I'd go more with ~27-28 for the coldest as of now...so say ~5 too warm if mainly ZR. Edit: Folks, If 31ish for coldest in ZR, can still be VERY bad!!! Think 1973! Ask Tony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Good deal! Delta, you, and I! To clarify what I said. IF ATL is mainly IP, then I'm guessing it gets down to ~25 at the coldest vs. the 12Z Euro's 32. However, if it is mainly ZR, then I'd go more with ~27-28 for the coldest as of now...so say ~5 too warm if mainly ZR. Edit: Folks, If 31ish for coldest in ZR, can still be VERY bad!!! Think 1973! Ask Tony. Is that considering latent heat release from IP or ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Local TV met Van Denton in High Point says the following: Winter weather threat is still a real possibility. It is looking to me like there are going to be 2 different periods of winter weather.On Monday the first wave of low pressure pushes some moisture into the area that should fall as some light snow and this could produce a dusting to 1/2" during the afternoon. This appears will taper off during the evening.Monday night and Tuesday, most of the moisture stays to our south with very small chances of anything around here until late Tuesday night.Tuesday night into Wednesday the next and more significant round moves into the area from the south. This is when I feel we have a chance to get more significant snowfall. Early guess is 2-3 inches of additional snowfall for much of the area. This area then pulls away on Wednesday night.*At this time, this is a better way for us to look at what this storm will likely do rather than the many varying snowfall accumulation maps that are circulating on the web from computer models. In the past these models were not so easily available to the non-meteorologist and many posting do not understand how these models fluctuate often until a storm is right on top of us. Plus it is one output of the model and we need to look at the entire package of the model which usually paints a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yeah i would say if the GGEM freezing rain forecast was right that would be catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z GGEM snow zoomed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Local TV met Van Denton in High Point says the following: Winter weather threat is still a real possibility. It is looking to me like there are going to be 2 different periods of winter weather. On Monday the first wave of low pressure pushes some moisture into the area that should fall as some light snow and this could produce a dusting to 1/2" during the afternoon. This appears will taper off during the evening. Monday night and Tuesday, most of the moisture stays to our south with very small chances of anything around here until late Tuesday night. Tuesday night into Wednesday the next and more significant round moves into the area from the south. This is when I feel we have a chance to get more significant snowfall. Early guess is 2-3 inches of additional snowfall for much of the area. This area then pulls away on Wednesday night. *At this time, this is a better way for us to look at what this storm will likely do rather than the many varying snowfall accumulation maps that are circulating on the web from computer models. In the past these models were not so easily available to the non-meteorologist and many posting do not understand how these models fluctuate often until a storm is right on top of us. Plus it is one output of the model and we need to look at the entire package of the model which usually paints a different story. Oh, I think most here understand that all too well but thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 OK looks like the euro goes neg with the trough a little later compared to the Canadian which explains the orientation of the precip shield. Small details to iron out but could really affect totals NC on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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