Feb 12-13 Sleet/Snow/ZR Event

[deltadog03]

from 6z WED to 6z THUR verbatim from the euro we are sitting at 35 and have 1.8" QPF falling.  00z run that was 1.5" QPF and sitting at 37-38.  ummmmm trending?  lol  

[buckeyefan1]

What??? I'm guessing Columbia ends up with a raging sleet storm and not a lot of snow. 

 

I can only hope that happens    That is a lot of zr the models have thrown this way the past couple of days  

[MichaelJ]

Looks like from a line from CLT to RDU it's snow through hour 78.  Which would be 8-10" for CLT and 2-3" for RDU.  After that it's all sleet it looks like for both.  Another 0.25" of sleet for CLT and 0.5" for RDU.

Up in the Triad it looks like almost all snow although a little lighter in QPF

[RevDodd]

What??? I'm guessing Columbia ends up with a raging sleet storm and not a lot of snow. 

Hate to see the folks Down East get shafted like that. I'm guessing the shift east isn't enough to change back over?

[deltadog03]

On my maps 850s are slightly warmer with the first wave but colder with the 2nd. Surface temp wise, I don't see much difference over north and northeast ga. If there is any, it's sort of splitting hairs. Regardless the first wave is really tough to nail down the smallest of temp differences aloft just makes a world of difference for areas along and south of 85. North of there it's snow but again precip is lighter. And it's just a huge mess with that second one with a buttload of precip

Looking back at it, your right, 850's are about the same up that way and 2m, but down here they are about 4 colder at 850 and 2-3 at 2m.  

[superjames1992]

Does GSO's 850's stay freezing the entire event?

 

Yes, but it's close.  Surface temperatures are in the mid-20s.  Looks like 8-10" of snow or so.

 

It also is similar to last night's run in that it drags through a band of snow in N AL into GA and SC as the storm exits.  It's fairly light, but still.  That's the same band that crushed Nashville on last night's run.

[deltadog03]

Larry, Chris given everything yall have seen today, would you say that its looking more and more likely for a major ZR fest around here?  Thank yall for all the help!

[Lookout]

Some folks should be praying the canadian is wrong. Seriously. That freezing rain is insane.

 

[NCsandhills]

Hateto do an IMBY but how is the Fay region looking? Am I going to miss another test?

[buckeyefan1]

Some folks should be praying the canadian is wrong. Seriously. That freezing rain is insane.

 

 

I seriously have no words for this....wow 

[packbacker]

Most of this in RDU is sleet, so probably 3" of snow, 2" of sleet.  Further west you go the more snow.

 

[GAdawg]

Lookout all I can say is WOW.  If all that happens it is going to be really bad.  Even if it is less than is shown on the CMC.

[Cheeznado]

One factor with the CAD is that up north from the OH Valley to the NE there is a really large fresh snow pack- when the high settles into wedge position Tues night and Wed there will be some really cold air at the surface with radiation and this can mean a few degrees lower temps down here than the models forecast. This is looking epic, like the 1982 original snow jam which was snow followed by ice followed by more snow, right now that looks like what the ATL metro will likely see based on everything I have glanced at. Luckily I think because of the earlier clusterf%$k with the roads etc I think that this time a lot of schools will close beforehand and there should be a lot fewer people going to work Tuesday AM so maybe we can avoid a complete disaster.

[Poimen]

What??? I'm guessing Columbia ends up with a raging sleet storm and not a lot of snow. 

 

 

If my geography is correct, it looks like RDU makes the 6-8" category, per this map.

[packbacker]

Euro 2m has most of central NC from 29-31F, cutting it really close.

[LovingGulfLows]

Is that 2 inches of ice on the Canadian?

[Stormsfury]

I seriously have no words for this....wow 

Oh sh**.   on top of that, WPC throws a curveball even in the inland coastal counties of SC.  with a hatched 40% percent of .25" ice accretions valid 12z TUE thru 12z WED.

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_pice_gt_25.gif

[FallsLake]

Most of this in RDU is sleet, so probably 3" of snow, 2" of sleet.  Further west you go the more snow.

 

For everybody thinking that's a shaft for RDU, 2" of sleet is significant. Add that to 3" of snow and it's like a 7-8 snow. I'll take this with a smile.

[packbacker]

For everybody thinking that's a shaft for RDU, 2" of sleet is significant. Add that to 3" of snow and it's like a 7-8 snow. I'll take this with a smile.

 

We are cutting it close though, that SLP goes 50 miles west we will flip to rain very fast, of course if it's 50 miles east we have more snow, toeing the line.  CLT makes out like a bandit on that overrunnig precip, we get squat from that.

[Brick Tamland]

Euro 2m has most of central NC from 29-31F, cutting it really close.

Isn't that usually when we get our heaviest snows?

[LithiaWx]

One factor with the CAD is that up north from the OH Valley to the NE there is a really large fresh snow pack- when the high settles into wedge position Tues night and Wed there will be some really cold air at the surface with radiation and this can mean a few degrees lower temps down here than the models forecast. This is looking epic, like the 1982 original snow jam which was snow followed by ice followed by more snow, right now that looks like what the ATL metro will likely see based on everything I have glanced at. Luckily I think because of the earlier clusterf%$k with the roads etc I think that this time a lot of schools will close beforehand and there should be a lot fewer people going to work Tuesday AM so maybe we can avoid a complete disaster.

Thanks cheez, I'm putting all of my chips in and going to the grocery, hearing you this bullish is music to my ears,

[deltadog03]

One factor with the CAD is that up north from the OH Valley to the NE there is a really large fresh snow pack- when the high settles into wedge position Tues night and Wed there will be some really cold air at the surface with radiation and this can mean a few degrees lower temps down here than the models forecast. This is looking epic, like the 1982 original snow jam which was snow followed by ice followed by more snow, right now that looks like what the ATL metro will likely see based on everything I have glanced at. Luckily I think because of the earlier clusterf%$k with the roads etc I think that this time a lot of schools will close beforehand and there should be a lot fewer people going to work Tuesday AM so maybe we can avoid a complete disaster.

I Agree, and its going to be well below zero in most areas as well up there.

[packbacker]

Isn't that usually when we get our heaviest snows?

 

Verbatim it's 90% ice, not snow for RDU.  CLT/GSO/INT mostly snow, 8-10".  Like I said above, the SLP shifts east we get more snow, shifts more west, we get rain.

[RaleighWx]

Not sure what is going on, CMC won't update on WB or AmericanWx, now the Euro is stuck at 90.

The Canadians put out their model grib files in an unchronolgical order. Today the 25km GGEM files for hour 27/30 were still not out as of 20 minutes ago. This happens often. Since our scripts are setup to process the gribs and create the graphics chronologically even if the whole run is done if the CMC hasnt put out the gribs for earlier hours the script will wait for it to come out.

 

I got around this today, because teh 66km files were out. So I downloaded those instead for hours 27/30 and now we are rolling through hour 48. Should come in steadily over the next 30-45 mins.

[deltadog03]

 Agreed on the mainly PL event. Also, I think some snow near the start, especially on the northside of ATL to AHN , looks quite possible now. 850's of +1 to +2 C do not support ZR per history in that area. If it is wintry with those 850's it is usually IP, not ZR or S.

 

 Regarding start time, I would definitely not let it start as late as 2 PM. I still think that it could POSSIBLY start as early as about 5-9 AM (earliest further north like Cumming). I think it is quite conceivable that on the northside of ATL to AHN, especially, that it is snowing/sleeting nearly all day long (snow to sleet) after ~7-9 AM. Some models are very close to that, if not actually implying that. So, they definitely should play it safe imo, especially since this is only a watch and be open to that reasonable possibility. In my mind, I wouldn't take a chance that it starts in the AM rather than 2 PM+ with it being a close call per models. That could be snowjam 2014 all over again.

 

edit: per Euro, ATL-AHN looking at a lot of IP like 2/1979 and 1/1988! If that occurs, I expect temp.'s to fall into the middle 20's. I think lots of IP down to Tony! Euro 2 meter temp.'s 5+ too warm imo.

 

Edit 2: classic Miller a track of low with ample cold air to the north is consistent with climo to produce a major ATL-AHN winter storm such as the Euro and other models are showing. Very reasonable.

 

Edit: MCN-CAE major ZR looking even more likely per Euro and others. Be prepared just in case.

Thanks Larry!  my confidence is growing that at least MCN to AGE to CAE (maybe CSG) is in the line of fire for ZR and a very significant one at that.

[downeastnc]

For everybody thinking that's a shaft for RDU, 2" of sleet is significant. Add that to 3" of snow and it's like a 7-8 snow. I'll take this with a smile.

 

We need the Euro Ens mean LP track to keep shifting east, yesterday it was right along the NC coast and today all models converged on it but last night the Euro mean shifted a little more offshore I think so if we can get the ens mean run on this Euro run to shift east as well  we might see the other models follow suit, like they did today, this would be huge for RDU and even PGV.

[Juliapalooza]

Latest tweet from Brad Panovich:  Remember ECMWF snowfall maps show all frozen precip, (snow/sleet/freezing rain) as snow. They are always overdone even if correct. #SEstorm

 

Are we able to view soundings from this latest run of the Euro?  (Trying to become an armchair met    )

[Cheeznado]

WSI RPM shows no snow for ATL proper but not too far away to the north Tuesday. Then it has a raging sleet storm over all of the Metro all night into Wed. I hope that is the case over ZR any day.

[Brick Tamland]

Verbatim it's 90% ice, not snow for RDU. CLT/GSO/INT mostly snow, 8-10". Like I said above, the SLP shifts east we get more snow, shifts more west, we get rain.

Even so, a couple of inches of snow with decent ice on top would be a mess and could cause havoc on the roads and power outages.

And maybe the east trend continues.

[packbacker]

The Canadians put out their model grib files in an unchronolgical order. Today the 25km GGEM files for hour 27/30 were still not out as of 20 minutes ago. This happens often. Since our scripts are setup to process the gribs and create the graphics chronologically even if the whole run is done if the CMC hasnt put out the gribs for earlier hours the script will wait for it to come out.

 

I got around this today, because teh 66km files were out. So I downloaded those instead for hours 27/30 and now we are rolling through hour 48. Should come in steadily over the next 30-45 mins.

 

Thanks Allan!  I wondered why the freebie site was showing hour 240 through 150 updating on the CMC, LOL