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Feb 12-13 Sleet/Snow/ZR Event


JoshM

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Canadian is the perfect storm in GA and Carolinas in my  opinion. I used to draw such maps in Junior high, hoping one day that would really happen. For areas in the Piedmont of both Carolinas and southeast of Atlanta that missed out on big totals of Superstorm 93, this run would make up for it bigtime. It may be too extreme though, but it has had the hot hand on details imo, as well as NAM in certain situations, atleast setting trends. We'll see if Euro has all the pieces come together just right. When I saw all models holding on to Baffin Ridge so long, I suspected something big would erupt down south. We'll see though, its' all in the details. Honestly, you wouldn't want quite what the Canadian shows really, it would devastate communities worse than an actual icestorm, massive roof collapses and trees, etc. 

What a storm though, no matter how you cut it.

If the canadian was right and the combo of the 2 storms would produce totals many would be talking about 50 years from now.

I know right...try to forecast for some of this on tv..heheh  CMC looks a bit colder again at 2m and 850...Dr no is up next.  I think FFC is going to have to consider something for us down here as well.  

I wouldn't. I don't envy you or anyone else right now at the nws/tv.

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good lord. '

 

12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_C

Just beautiful how the vort wraps in negative tilt in exactly the right spot to nail so many areas at once. We never get this kind of setup, well maybe once in a quarter century. Its usually just north of this region and MidAtlantic that gets to have such a meteorological masterpiece occur right over them. And to think its only 3 days away from getting started or even less for some. Not a week. Seriously with all the models showing something down south, the public only has a couple days to prepare for a moderate Winter storm in the least. And historic at best.  Truth could be in the middle, but we're due for something truly major I think, and this has the potential. You'd want to see this now, not a month from now when southern trees are budding. Still would mean a devastating hit to many livelihoods if this occurs. We'd be reeling for weeks I think.

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HA! About as epic a look on a map inside 5 day you will probably see.

That's the truth. Hard to believe such an extreme solution but there is some model agreement of this thing blowing up. This is just...I have no words lol

 

This doesn't even count the first wave :lol:

 

P6_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gifP6_GZ_D5_PN_078_0000.gifP6_GZ_D5_PN_084_0000.gifP6_GZ_D5_PN_090_0000.gif

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If the Euro holds serve I'd expect watches to go up this evening. Wyff already talking this up as crippling to the upstate and surrounding areas. Good trends from all the models thus far gives me a lot of confidence in seeing warning criteria snowfall....finally!

Keep up the great disco fellow weenies!!

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hmmm. Not quite as cold as I thought it would be given the setup. It's clearly the warmest model aloft for both systems. It would be deformation zone sleet and freezing rain for many per ewall maps.

 

Not a surprise given it's the Canadian... It would definitely be cold enough in the mid levels with a storm bombing out of this nature.

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Where can I get a snowfall accumulation map for the Canadian? This run is probably overdone, but I'd like to see what our ceiling is in terms of snowfall.

It's not out yet..

 

edit: http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&type=SN〈=en&map=na change the run to 12z when it becomes available

 

I'm sure someone will post a paid map though considering the run.

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Where can I get a snowfall accumulation map for the Canadian? This run is probably overdone, but I'd like to see what our ceiling is in terms of snowfall.

 Iol  I know this is banter, but we are between models so I'll risk it.  You answered your own question.

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if you look back at any wound up hecs type of system like the ggem is showing, there are many pockets of warm air in the mid-levels and even at the sfc that can get pushed inland due to the mid and low level east winds. THere would definitely be sleet and zr in this situation for anyone east of i77.

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Phasing would be wonderful but I think we need to consider that the GFS has the more sane picture. just trying to take us(me) down to earth. If we go just with the GFS, I would not complain about five inches of snow(with temps in the 20s) it shows my back yard and would be happy for you guys SW of here.

Total precip at hour 96. Like I said still a good hit for RDU just not a fabulous hit like shown to the SW.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_096_precip_p48.gif

Looks Great for CLT!  3 - 6" in the Triangle.  2 - 4" maximum north of the Triangle into the southern VA border.

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if you look back at any wound up hecs type of system like the ggem is showing, there are many pockets of warm air in the mid-levels and even at the sfc that can get pushed inland due to the mid and low level east winds. THere would definitely be sleet and zr in this situation for anyone east of i77.

I'm .3 of a mile west of 77...am I safe? :P

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hmmm. Not quite as cold as I thought it would be given the setup. It's clearly the warmest model aloft for both systems. It would be deformation zone sleet and freezing rain for many per ewall maps.

I was going to say the same thing.  CMC should be colder with that look at 2m and 850.  I think for temps, at least in cad areas for 2m, the NAM should be the front runner.

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