Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Feb 12-13 Sleet/Snow/ZR Event


JoshM

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I don't know about the rest of you but I'm actually finding it hard to sit in my seat :lmao:

I know right...try to forecast for some of this on tv..heheh  CMC looks a bit colder again at 2m and 850...Dr no is up next.  I think FFC is going to have to consider something for us down here as well.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agree with burger wow Queen City. I am stoked and have been for couple days. Everything is falling in line. Gonna see a minimum of 5 or 6 inches and the potential is there to get plastered. From n GA through upstate into a good chunk of NC this is the best opp we have had in years. Can't understand how anyone in this area could be negative at the moment. Loving the Canadian.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agree with burger wow Queen City. I am stoked and have been for couple days. Everything is falling in line. Gonna see a minimum of 5 or 6 inches and the potential is there to get plastered. From n GA through upstate into a good chunk of NC this is the best opp we have had in years. Can't understand how anyone in this area could be negative at the moment. Loving the Canadian.

 

The Canadian deformation bands us for around 24 hours.  How crazy is that?  Insane.  The heavy precip even spreads into E TN and N AL.  If the Euro jumps onboard in a bit, this board my crash!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yup! And another thing for others following this is to not look at MOS numbers as those are usually way too warm in CAD situations until too late, if they catch up at all. I've been snakebitten by doing that a handful of times when first forecasting this area and I still go a little too warm most of the time during CAD events. Heck, last Tuesday I had a forecast high of 59 and we only made it to 53, but that's because the warm front finally lifted north later in the evening; we actually stayed close to 50° most of the afternoon. A difference of 6° this time will mean the difference between cold rain or ice. That's just an example of what we mean by the models having a warm bias during CAD events...

Agreed, the only reason why I know its got a warm bias is because I have been bitten in the past by it and have lived here long enough to know that a good established wedge, with a very cold terrain and snowy one its sitting on will certainly be able to drive those 2m down.  GFS, EURO and CMC will usually be a bit to warm at 2m in a wedge I have always found.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Phasing would be wonderful but I think we need to consider that the GFS has the more sane picture. just trying to take us(me) down to earth. If we go just with the GFS, I would not complain about five inches of snow(with temps in the 20s) it shows my back yard and would be happy for you guys SW of here.

Total precip at hour 96. Like I said still a good hit for RDU just not a fabulous hit like shown to the SW.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_096_precip_p48.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Am I reading the maps wrong or does the Canadian show mostly rain from Atlanta to Birmingham ? I sure do get the idea that Rome to Gainesville and northward is the prime area in Georgia. Still not expecting anything along I-20.

 

Nobody can tell much for sure until better maps.  Take forever for the better maps on the CMC to come out

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Am I reading the maps wrong or does the Canadian show mostly rain from Atlanta to Birmingham ? I sure do get the idea that Rome to Gainesville and northward is the prime area in Georgia. Still not expecting anything along I-20.

Chill man, if anything it is getting more likely that ATL is going to be plastered.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Canadian is the perfect storm in GA and Carolinas in my  opinion. I used to draw such maps in Junior high, hoping one day that would really happen. For areas in the Piedmont of both Carolinas and southeast of Atlanta that missed out on big totals of Superstorm 93, this run would make up for it bigtime. It may be too extreme though, but it has had the hot hand on details imo, as well as NAM in certain situations, atleast setting trends. We'll see if Euro has all the pieces come together just right. When I saw all models holding on to Baffin Ridge so long, I suspected something big would erupt down south. We'll see though, its' all in the details. Honestly, you wouldn't want quite what the Canadian shows really, it would devastate communities worse than an actual icestorm, massive roof collapses and trees, etc. 

What a storm though, no matter how you cut it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, it's comforting to know that in the past 24 hours two models have shown two completely different ways to put down 12"+ of snow in my backyard. LOL

i work at harris teeter and we saw a huge increase in sales already on Saturday because of the winter storm. Foods gonna go fast once more hear about this.. 

 

Looking like mooresville will get moderate to heavy accumulations. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GGEM is similar to the euro now. just not as far nw. i actually think at this point it's the most likely solution. rdu looks like snow to ice to snow. hickory looks like all snow. these precip type maps are going to be very bad at this point. i wouldn't really read too much into them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know right...try to forecast for some of this on tv..heheh CMC looks a bit colder again at 2m and 850...Dr no is up next. I think FFC is going to have to consider something for us down here as well.

*cough* call in sick. I feel for the pro mets who have to go on Air with this. Lol. As with others I am beside myself. It's not like a fantasy storm a week away. It starts tomorrow night. In all honesty this is an extreme solution to say the least. So extreme even 25% would be an awesome storm lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Canadian is the perfect storm in GA and Carolinas in my opinion. I used to draw such maps in Junior high, hoping one day that would really happen. For areas in the Piedmont of both Carolinas and southeast of Atlanta that missed out on big totals of Superstorm 93, this run would make up for it bigtime. It may be too extreme though, but it has had the hot hand on details imo, as well as NAM in certain situations, atleast setting trends. We'll see if Euro has all the pieces come together just right. When I saw all models holding on to Baffin Ridge so long, I suspected something big would erupt down south. We'll see though, its' all in the details. Honestly, you wouldn't want quite what the Canadian shows really, it would devastate communities worse than an actual icestorm, massive roof collapses and trees, etc.

What a storm though, no matter how you cut it.

southeast of atl had their big snow in 73 I believe.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Canadian is close to the 0z Euro.. just digs the s/w about 50-100 miles SE.

 

I hate to admit it, but if the Euro comes in anything like the Canadian, I am going to the grocery store.  I feel dirty just thinking about it.  Some amazing possibilities in multiple models.  It should be some week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BTW, 00z Euro Ensemble Mean snow totals for selected cities:

 

GSO: 7.5"

AVL: 8.75"

CLT: 8.5"

RDU: 7"

HKY: 7.75"

GSP: 8.75"

CAE: 8" (so probably 0,8" QPF of IP/ZR, in actuality)

DAN: 7.25"

 

Overall, they're pretty identical to the past few EPS runs.  Some places are a little higher (like RDU), others are a little less.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just putting this out there but climo heavily disagrees with the CMC regarding Atlanta. That would be historic for us.

 

 

That's like near Superstorm 93 for us. I just can't see it happening. It looks amazing though and shows that it is possible to get huge snows here if the right things come together.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...