BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 LP track on the GFS is typically a perfect run for the I-85 corridor from N GA into NC. I think QPF will be more substantial as a rapidly deepening low rides along the SE coast. Even without it, the GFS puts up some great snow totals for parts of NC/SC/GA. We're in a good spot here. And the euro, verbatim, if it moved east just 50 miles or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntjr Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 To burger's and Queencity's points- this is a really good set-up- best I have seen for the CLT area in several years.....you always want to be a little to the N of where bright-banding occurs- this is normally where the heaviest snow sets up.. last week was a good example- we had a pretty potent influx of cold, dry air from the NE, and it limited snowfall in and around CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 LP track on the GFS is typically a perfect run for the I-85 corridor from N GA into NC. I think QPF will be more substantial as a rapidly deepening low rides along the SE coast. Even without it, the GFS puts up some great snow totals for parts of NC/SC/GA. We're in a good spot here. Mabe I am crazy, but this deal reminds me of Jan 2000. I don't think the totals will be as much, but the whole setup and the evolution of this feels similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 And the euro, verbatim, if it moved east just 50 miles or so... I believe RaleighWx said earlier he doesn't think it would be as far west as the Euro showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 And the euro, verbatim, if it moved east just 50 miles or so... Boy, yeah.. you could double the snow totals with the amt of QPF it spits out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Let's see how the storm rides the coast on the way NE. I would lean towards right on/off the coast... But there are indications more up the coastal plain Keep in mind the 0z ECMWF had a 999 up the coastal plain over Fayetteville pushing the 850 0c to Foothills 12z ECMWF will be interesting to see how it changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 From what I can tell on my phone (modem died so no home Internet til tomorrow.. Go me! ), it looks like Columbus, GA will be right on the line for freezing rain. Most models keep us in the mid 30s with rain. I know they have a bit of a warm bias with regards to CAD, but will we be able to cool off in time to get in on the freezing rain action is the bigger question. Those North and East of me look to be under the gun with more ice and sleet and snow further north. This is going to be fun to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Did north Georgia just get bullseyed? I hope not - yet. Still a day away. Need to be bullseyed sometime late tomorrow pls lol. I think things are looking great. As others said what's with the negativity? At this point things seem to be trending and falling in line for a pretty classic se winter storm. Snow sleet ice. It's all there. Temps may be in mid to upper 20s for a lot of us. My excitement has passed containment (to the regret of my friends lol). If things keep progressing like this we could have great storm. My only hesitations are 1 convection to the south stealing our moisture 2 what happens with any last min shifts when the s/w gets sampled well on shore this evening/overnight. If there are no huge shifts we should basically be good to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Another major shift in 24 hours on the GFS is how cold it is on Wednesday. Temps are almost a full 10 degrees colder at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 From what I can tell on my phone (modem died so no home Internet til tomorrow.. Go me! ), it looks like Columbus, GA will be right on the line for freezing rain. Most models keep us in the mid 30s with rain. I know they have a bit of a warm bias with regards to CAD, but will we be able to cool off in time to get in on the freezing rain action is the bigger question. Those North and East of me look to be under the gun with more ice and sleet and snow further north. This is going to be fun to watch... For us, the NAM went to town, the GFS continued to cool 2m and verbatim its showing like 34-36. As you and others have said, its got a warm bias and will probably be around 30-32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Another major shift in 24 hours on the GFS is how cold it is on Wednesday. Temps are almost a full 10 degrees colder at the sfc. Yeah, big chances there. It keeps GSO, RDU, CLT, HKY, etc. well into the 20s. That's a pretty major storm as modeled with the potential for more with the phase. While the overrunning is looking less impressive, especially up here, the potential for a "Big Dog" event seems to be growing if we can just get the phase in the right position. EDIT: Canadian, OMG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The CMC is just ridiculous, major winter storm for everyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looking at the soundings for CUB, the column isn't too far gone that you couldn't see a trend toward sleet there. KFDW(winnsboro) looks like sleet until hour 84 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 My favorite, the NAVGEM is a bomb too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The canadian is just flat out insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Canadian is a huge hit. Hr82: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 OMG at the Canadian. Going off the crude maps.. There’s probably a jackpot of 18 to 20 inches of snow somewhere from atlanta up through greenville to charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Oh mercy... there it is. Forget one foot... have another! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For us, the NAM went to town, the GFS continued to cool 2m and verbatim its showing like 34-36. As you and others have said, its got a warm bias and will probably be around 30-32 Yup! And another thing for others following this is to not look at MOS numbers as those are usually way too warm in CAD situations until too late, if they catch up at all. I've been snakebitten by doing that a handful of times when first forecasting this area and I still go a little too warm most of the time during CAD events. Heck, last Tuesday I had a forecast high of 59 and we only made it to 53, but that's because the warm front finally lifted north later in the evening; we actually stayed close to 50° most of the afternoon. A difference of 6° this time will mean the difference between cold rain or ice. That's just an example of what we mean by the models having a warm bias during CAD events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Canadian is a huge hit. Hr82: That run is awesome.! I think the final solution of our storm will look alot like this! Leaning torwards the phase! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Oh my-lanta at the Canadian. This area would be shut down for over a week. o O Easily a foot and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwupstatewx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 OMG at the Canadian. Going off the crude maps.. There’s probably a jackpot of 18 to 20 inches of snow somewhere from atlanta up through greenville to charlotte. Side question...how reliable has the CMC been this winter so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Oh mercy... there it is. Forget one foot... have another! I don't know about the rest of you but I'm actually finding it hard to sit in my seat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 You can see the comma head/deformation band snows back towards Alabama/W Georgia on the Canadian precip. maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 You can see the comma head/deformation band snows back towards Alabama/W Georgia on the Canadian precip. maps. One would think that would continue to head north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 OMG how I wish I was in SC or NC to see this unfold lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Sitting in the publix parking lot just laughing and laughing. Wow. Insane. Maybe we will score lookout. Pulling for both of us. Would love to see the cold be deep enough to make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wow, check out that bomb! Been snowing nearly 24hrs for me up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well, it's comforting to know that in the past 24 hours two models have shown two completely different ways to put down 12"+ of snow in my backyard. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Side question...how reliable has the CMC been this winter so far? The last 2-3 storms it's been very good, it had been terrible up until January 20th or so when we were in the more northern stream dominant pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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