Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GFS botching the phase and has two separate lows and can't get it going.. it'll be well stronger. So what do you think WOW? I am worried about the whole shooting match moving north and we get left with more ice/rain. Is that your worry? Grrr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yep if folks in NC on our side complain about this run they need to get a life. 100% agree with this statement. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GEFS individual panels are going to have some bombs on it. Hope so.. It's good to know that even with a late phase, our area still racks up a solid amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Like burger, I'll take this run. Me two..the gfs has 1 inch liquid where I'm at and goes from snow to sleet and back to snow or a snow/sleet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yep if folks in NC on our side complain about this run they need to get a life. It's easily warning criteria and possibly up to half a foot for the city. If you can find something to complain about there, I can't help you. Stay away from the banter thread then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 So what do you think WOW? I am worried about the whole shooting match moving north and we get left with more ice/rain. Is that your worry? Grrr... If anything this is getting colder for us per the GFS and NAM. Less worry of ice, question will be if the low can bomb out. Looks like all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 wow..believe it or not, the gfs has it going from sleet to more or less a snow sounding in athens by hour 72. Only area above freezing is around 850mb and it's only 0.8c. if precip is heavy enough that is probably snow..at the least it's not freezing rain which is good news for yours truly. Very strong sleet sounding in atlanta by that time..although precip is almost over Are y'all looking at heavy precip overcoming the mid-layer warmth? That would be great news for folks up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's easily warning criteria and possibly up to half a foot for the city. If you can find something to complain about there, I can't help you. yeah this is a good snow for most of north carolina. Just a reminder about cod's legend..which is a little different than most. Medium green is 0.50 and dark green is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Me two..the gfs has 1 inch liquid where I'm at and goes from snow to sleet and back to snow or a snow/sleet mix. You're looking in a better spot each minute. This thing is going to keep trending colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I've got a count of .71 for the airport which would probably be all snow before transitioning to FZDZ sometime early Thursday morning. Best event since 2011 if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hey Wow or Burger how much earlier did the Euro phase in comparison to the 12z GFS in order to tuck it inland and up the coast was it just a tick off or? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 yeah this is a good snow for most of north carolina. Just a reminder about cod's legend..which is a little different than most. Medium green is 0.50 and dark green is 1 That is a lot of ice for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The only prob is the gfs moves in trends. if the euro is on to something with the mega phase, this is probably the beginning of a jump towards that solution. while i don't think the slp will be inland, a track just off the coastline is probably not out of the question. that would change most of nc over to sleet east of the foothills and far western piedmont. ga/sc would get an intial surge of snow but change to sleet/freezing rain. a change back over to snow is probably likely if this setup results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z RGEM at 48 hours a bit south of 0z GGEM at 60 hours with regards to precip field -- and slower. It's like the southern TN border is a brick wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 You're looking in a better spot each minute. This thing is going to keep trending colder. Just hope it holds or trends a little colder still because I'm just barely cold enough to have snow on both systems. Any warmer at all and it changes drastically for me but I'm very happy with the trends overall. As I said earlier though, I am a bit worried about that heavy precip to the south screwing up amounts up here, that is if it's real and not convective feedback. But since the nam shows it too, it's worth paying attention to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hey Wow or Burger how much earlier did the Euro phase in comparison to the 12z GFS in order to tuck it inland and up the coast was it just a tick off or? Euro was very aggressive with the phase and actually brought the low inland.. an early phase.. it's close, and the timing of phasing is the toughest thing to forecast... Euro Ens however kept the low off shore. If the low does come on shore, the snow/sleet line will shift west. For the W Piedmont we like to see the LP track just off shore. Dealing with a coastal low is a whole different animal compared to an overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Have only looked at the maps and it looks like we do have maybe a half an inch of precipitation over the 2day stretch. If all snow I would gladly take it. But it was not a good trend. Precipitation wise. The trend is our friend. The earlier runs had us within a mile or two of being mostly sleet or freezing rain. Now we are still getting thumped hard but we have 15 or 20 miles of wiggle room for the dreaded warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0z Euro ENS held steady for CLT btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The trend is our friend. The earlier runs had us within a mile or two of being mostly sleet or freezing rain. Now we are still getting thumped hard but we have 15 or 20 miles of wiggle room for the dreaded warm nose. One thing that 2011 taught me is you don't want to be too entrenched in the cold air for the best snowfall rates. That's why you guys and the Sandhills did better than people like burger and me. I like being right on that line. It'll jump up and bite you sometimes for sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 If anything this is getting colder for us per the GFS and NAM. Less worry of ice, question will be if the low can bomb out. Looks like all snow. Awesome! I can tell it is a colder solution. I just do not want this thing to get too far north. i can MOST DEF live with this run! HOWEVER, i would LOVE to see one 12"+, so you can finally remove the "Triangle of snow death". LMAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wow -- pretty nice look for the Ukie at 72 hours -- looks like it's ready to strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I've got a count of .71 for the airport which would probably be all snow before transitioning to FZDZ sometime early Thursday morning. Best event since 2011 if it holds. That could be too light because I think the gfs might be under estimating totals because of that convective blob it's showing. If that is just convective feedback and not real, I would think totals will be higher across the board from north ga, upstate and north carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 wow..believe it or not, the gfs has it going from sleet to more or less a snow sounding in athens by hour 72. Only area above freezing is around 850mb and it's only 0.8c. if precip is heavy enough that is probably snow..at the least it's not freezing rain which is good news for yours truly. Very strong sleet sounding in atlanta by that time..although precip is almost over The trends are very clear IMO. Usually the GFS, like EURO are always to warm in wedges at 2m around our areas. Either way, if euro holds the trends from today, hmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That could be too light because I think the gfs might be under estimating totals because of that convective blob it's showing. If that is just convective feedback and not real, I would think totals will be higher across the board from north ga, upstate and north carolina I like where we're at, Chris. I don't get the negativity over the past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Taking a blend of all of the H5 looks on models would make for a great SE storm. No need to be negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Did north Georgia just get bullseyed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just hope it holds or trends a little colder still because I'm just barely cold enough to have snow on both systems. Any warmer at all and it changes drastically for me but I'm very happy with the trends overall. As I said earlier though, I am a bit worried about that heavy precip to the south screwing up amounts up here, that is if it's real and not convective feedback. But since the nam shows it too, it's worth paying attention to. LP track on the GFS is typically a perfect run for the I-85 corridor from N GA into NC. I think QPF will be more substantial as a rapidly deepening low rides along the SE coast. Even without it, the GFS puts up some great snow totals for parts of NC/SC/GA. We're in a good spot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Did north Georgia just get bullseyed? Big time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Chris, lookout, um...I think my area might be ground zero? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Taking a blend of all of the H5 looks on models would make for a great SE storm. No need to be negative.Honestly, it's been a long couple of winters and I think that's led to people losing objectivity.I'd take a blend of all of them right now and call it a winter. Euro/GFS both give me at least 4" of snow(more on the GFS AND ECEns). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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