Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 @78 it's phasing big time.. if it can get the LP bombing off the SE coast quick enough before the precip pulls into W NC then we'd be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 @84 it looks fantastic...very much in line with what Brandon said. GFS and Euro today will be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 In a single 24-hour cycle, the NAM took the northern 3/4 of N.C. from a 10-inch snow to nothing re: first impluse. #nicemodel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ha! By 84 the low is bombing and pulling the 850 freezing line back east a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well it's certainly cold enough for major ice down into central ga absolutely kills them with freezing rain. Question of the day with this run is if the nam is being too supressed with precip with the second wave. might be some convective feed back but if that area of heavy precip is there, could interrupt moisture transport to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ummmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wow.. that energy phasing on on the backside is scary.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 In a single 24-hour cycle, the NAM took the northern 3/4 of N.C. from a 10-inch snow to nothing re: first impluse. #nicemodel It's crazy how with each run it shows something different. Ha! By 84 the low is bombing and pulling the 850 freezing line back east a bit Yeah and it might be under performing actually for nc if that area of heavy convection isn't there, I would expect more precip further north and into nc initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Very interesting. Massive phasing occurring on the 84 hr NAM....almost looks like another low is trying to spin up in the NE Gulf based on the wind fields. At very least, the developing SFC low off the SC coast is nearly stationary. Orientation of the vorticity fields is a little different, but this looks a lot like the overall Euro idea to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well it's certainly cold enough for major ice down into central ga absolutely kills them with freezing rain. Question of the day with this run is if the nam is being too supressed with precip with the second wave. might be some convective feed back but if that area of heavy precip is there, could interrupt moisture transport to the north. I think the NAM would be an interesting solution to say the least. I don't buy it yet! However, what I do by is that each model is getting colder and colder at 2m and 850 across our state. For the first time, on any models, Verbatim this would CRUSH CSG-MCN-AGS with a massive ICE storm and it actually has me at 30-32 degrees at about 00z WED. Lookout, Larry, T, Candyman, and everyone else, I think we can at least take away from this run that its def. trending colder. Which I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow.png Gsp storm total. That map shows precip ending at 1 am Tuesday...I would hope people don't panic over that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 the nam is so strong with the northeasterly flow that temps are actually effected by the wedge all the way down into southern alabama, especially aloft. I've never seen that before. It should be noted the nam has a lot of sleet somewhere between the 0c 850s and central ga. Just amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well if it can get its act together on the energy in TX here... I'd agree. The energy over the N Plains looks intimidating and ready for a big phase with it. I'm thinking we see a phase, but not sure to the extent the euro is showing. i agree w/ allan and dt on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I honestly don't know what to say....IF this run is even close to verifying and our 2m temps are that cold....I will be at work for days because it would be a super damaging ice storm here. Over 1.25" of ZR here from 3z WED on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Very interesting. Massive phasing occurring on the 84 hr NAM....almost looks like another low is trying to spin up in the NE Gulf based on the wind fields. At very least, the developing SFC low off the SC coast is nearly stationary. Orientation of the vorticity fields is a little different, but this looks a lot like the overall Euro idea to me. Good point Matt but wouldn't this also mean a further South and East precipitation field that would have a sharp cut off over Western NC/SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's crazy how with each run it shows something different. Yeah and it might be under performing actually for nc if that area of heavy convection isn't there, I would expect more precip further north and into nc initially It's crazy how with each run it shows something different. Yeah and it might be under performing actually for nc if that area of heavy convection isn't there, I would expect more precip further north and into nc initially More like a 12 hour cycle! Looking at the 700mb RH maps, I'd agree.. ATL to CLT to GSO.. a long fetch of moisture... That low is going to be deeping rapidly and the convection is going to explode over these areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I honestly don't know what to say....IF this run is even close to verifying and our 2m temps are that cold....I will be at work for days because it would be a super damaging ice storm here. Over 1.25" of ZR here from 3z WED on I'm not sure I've ever seen that much ice before......I have no words for this if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think the NAM would be an interesting solution to say the least. I don't buy it yet! However, what I do by is that each model is getting colder and colder at 2m and 850 across our state. For the first time, on any models, Verbatim this would CRUSH CSG-MCN-AGS with a massive ICE storm and it actually has me at 30-32 degrees at about 00z WED. Lookout, Larry, T, Candyman, and everyone else, I think we can at least take away from this run that its def. trending colder. Which I believe Yeah this would be a devastating ice storm for those areas and over into central south carolina. Hell it could end up being a lot of sleet in the northern parts of the midlands. One thing is for sure, this is an epic storm for a hell of a lot of people being shown now from guidance. The area of coverage and how much actually falls is truly an historical storm in the making (assuming of course the models don't do an about face) Just an incredible period of winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Burger, delta, lookout or Larry... One thought I'm thinking this morning and would love your opinion on. If the first punch drops we'll say 2" of snow north of I-20 up through the 85 corridor up through SC, the the high pressure slides in to place, in my mind this creates a virtual "slide" if you will, and could possibly enhance the CAD south and west? Larry, having lived in East Gwinnett all my life, I cannot remember a cad event with snow on the ground initially or immediately in this case. Thoughts? interesting thought - was discussed briefly yesterday (i think) at one point. we didnt remember a wedge coming in with snow cover either. i would tend to agree with you, if anything it could help with that extra degree or two drop that we so often need here in ga lol. i have had storms come in and go snow to ice or rain. i do not recall a one two punch like is being shown. this seems for the most part (as others stated this morning) to be looking like a more usual se winter storm with snow, sleet and freezing rain (to rain in some areas). since we are what, less than two days away its looking pretty good. we are almost to the point of being able to see the temps and radar start lighting up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 THe cad will keep trending stronger. look at the high pressure on any current sfc analysis over the northern plains, it's an arctic hp with source regions over the nw territories. it's just another reason any thermal boundary that sets up will likely be off the coastline. this situation looks pretty classic. everyone needs to take a deep breath and quit model hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Simulated radar at hour 84. 850 line looks to be moving back east (drawn in) and is near RDU. This would be a huge storm. "If this is right" http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yeah this would be a devastating ice storm for those areas and over into central south carolina. Hell it could end up being a lot of sleet in the northern parts of the midlands. One thing is for sure, this is an epic storm for a hell of a lot of people being shown now from guidance. The area of coverage and how much actually falls is truly an historical storm in the making (assuming of course the models don't do an about face) Just an incredible period of winter weather. Agreed! on all accounts. I did notice a little pocket of sub 4c temps at 850 when that heavy burst comes through. I know its 1 run, and don't buy it overall, but I do buy into the colder temps *trending* What are you thinking? Also, I do think some phasing will occur, just where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 THe cad will keep trending stronger. look at the high pressure on any current sfc analysis over the northern plains, it's an arctic hp with source regions over the nw territories. it's just another reason any thermal boundary that sets up will likely be off the coastline. this situation looks pretty classic. everyone needs to take a deep breath and quit model hugging. Looking at the mid level maps it's a big one. Surface cold is not a problem... and for northern areas, mid level temps should work out as well with the major phasing taking place.. HP will build on the back side. Look at the classic CAD sig on the NAM 500mb vorticity... beautiful I can see a single sub-1000mb low bombing off the coast of GA/SC based on the 500mb setup here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 THe cad will keep trending stronger. look at the high pressure on any current sfc analysis over the northern plains, it's an arctic hp with source regions over the nw territories. it's just another reason any thermal boundary that sets up will likely be off the coastline. this situation looks pretty classic. everyone needs to take a deep breath and quit model hugging. Really this setup the NAM is trying to show on this run is how one would expect to see a statewide thump of 9-12" for NC at least like the NAM had yesterday versus a overrunning type event, the warm nose will be a problem but once that coastal gets cranked 850's should crash towards the coast and everyone but the immediate coast would go all snow, then we need that sucker to sit there for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxcwman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 interesting thought - was discussed briefly yesterday (i think) at one point. we didnt remember a wedge coming in with snow cover either. i would tend to agree with you, if anything it could help with that extra degree or two drop that we so often need here in ga lol. i have had storms come in and go snow to ice or rain. i do not recall a one two punch like is being shown. this seems for the most part (as others stated this morning) to be looking like a more usual se winter storm with snow, sleet and freezing rain (to rain in some areas). since we are what, less than two days away its looking pretty good. we are almost to the point of being able to see the temps and radar start lighting up lol I disagree. The storm back in January of 2000 at least in the Dawsonville area had at least an inch of snow on the ground before freezing rain began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Good point Matt but wouldn't this also mean a further South and East precipitation field that would have a sharp cut off over Western NC/SC? There would be a sharp cutoff somewhere yes.... but there would be some big winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 THe cad will keep trending stronger. look at the high pressure on any current sfc analysis over the northern plains, it's an arctic hp with source regions over the nw territories. it's just another reason any thermal boundary that sets up will likely be off the coastline. this situation looks pretty classic. everyone needs to take a deep breath and quit model hugging. I also agree with this. The CAD should trend stronger as we get closer. I will say this, the NAM usually sniffs out the 2m cooling trend first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Robert, like most meteorologists on here, is hedging because of the differing model solutions and the complexity of the systems as depicted so far. He said he would issue a call map this afternoon after he has time to study the 12z runs and possibly the later EURO run. The fact that we have so many talented meteorologists whom are perplexed by this system is indicative of how uncertain the end result will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Is that yet another low spinning up in the GOM? And if so, would it trail the first low, or be forced further east? Can't say I've seen that before, so apologies if that's an ignorant question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I disagree. The storm back in January of 2000 at least in the Dawsonville area had at least an inch of snow on the ground before freezing rain began. We had 3" inches of snow before the ice during that storm in Hartwell, GA. I remember that one very vividly. I also remember Athens not getting any snow at all, so it was a fine line between the two cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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