Tacoma Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow.png Gsp storm total. I would assume this is only the first wave, still the second wave to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I would urge a little caution here though because this actually does not evolve like our typical cad storms. Most times the cold and dry air is already in place and the models will miss the evaporational cooling aspect of it..and thus end up being too warm. But with this it's already saturated and we have to lean only on cold air advection. I think this partly explains why there isn't much difference between the euro and gfs as far as surface temps go. (normally the gfs is a little colder than the euro) So it will be interesting to see how this plays out, especially if there is a good bit of snow on the ground in some areas. I fully agree with you there, and thats one reason why I am not super sold on CSG-MCN line. So, I should edit that somewhat and say ATL-AHN and AGS-CAE are in a super spot to get a significant ZR storm at the least IMO. CSG-MCN is super difficult. I have a feeling there is some plays here where the wedge/CAA is getting enhanced from the snow on the ground to our NE and since its very cold up there its a fresh airmass. I do worry, like you just said, about this not being fully built in with dry air and cold. I also wonder why the euro drives my 850's up to like 8c. So, there are more worries/no go for wintry around here atm, but curious to see whats up with further runs. GFS And NAM (6z runs) starting to show some ZR down this way verbatim on there runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 If I was in north carolina where you still could be snow, I would be worried about that for the second wave. With the first wave, there isn't a waa regime but during the second wave there is strong waa aloft. So if the warm air is underestimated I would tend to think it would be with the second wave. Yes, the second wave, while as of now is the more potent system, will be warmer in the mid levels compared to the initial overrunning moisture on Tuesday. However, if the storm can get its act together faster and deepen rapidly off the SE coast then at the very least W Carolinas need not worry about waa as cold air will then be drawn in on the back side with building HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 More moisture over TN @30 on the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The new NAM is MUCH further north with the initial overrunning precipitation than the last two runs. This is reminiscent of the 12Z and 18Z placements from yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Some light snow rolling into NC at hr33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Here is hour 34: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 @45 looks juicier compared to 6z. Not as much overrunning in NC on this one. Also a little bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That bit of precip at 33 is from the initial wave that it was once amping up yesterday..still trending weaker.. it's now all guns on the main s/w moving thru TX. The stronger the main s/w is, the more phasing will occur and bring it further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 @48 energy out west looses the steam it had. So not quite as wet as 6z at the same time frame overall close though. There is more moisture on the back north west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Light snow moving into NGA at hr 48, this run looks colder so far in GA. I think, 2m temps are a nice bit colder. NE winds are starting to really push through the state now as well edit: its actually very noticeably colder at 2m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Man, N. Miss getting hammered on this run. Everything keeps sinking south -- cold air and precip -- 500mb energy a tad slower and tad farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That bit of precip at 33 is from the initial wave that it was once amping up yesterday..still trending weaker.. it's now all guns on the main s/w moving thru TX. The stronger the main s/w is, the more phasing will occur and bring it further north. This run doesn't look like it will do a really strong phase. Kind of keeps all the impulses separated at least out to 54. It does look a little better than the 6z on the surface though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Light snow moving into NGA at hr 48, this run looks colder so far in GA. I think, 2m temps are a nice bit colder. NE winds are starting to really push through the state now as well edit: its actually very noticeably colder at 2m Yep..the trend of being colder over ga/sc here. At this rate, atlanta is going to get into the area of snow..it literally is within spitting distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 HR54 NE winds howling and its much colder (vs 6z run, and I know 0z run) at 2m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Man, N. Miss getting hammered on this run. Everything keeps sinking south -- cold air and precip -- 500mb energy a tad slower and tad farther south. ONce it phases.. it will push all of it NE.. may not on the NAM but all other models agree w/ a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'm not liking these south trends at all. North MS gets clobbered! I-20 from Tuscaloosa to Birmingham is ZR storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This run puts athens in the game for major snow accumulation. In fact the nam is contradicting my earlier statement that it's only rain vs snow. It shows an area of sleet because it's colder in the boundary layer and the mid levels are colder. Taken at face value this first wave produces 3 to 6 inches it seems from the northern atlanta suburbs to around athens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Massive shift at 2m temps on the 12z NAM. 6z had freezing line along VA. This sends it to the middle of SC. light snow around CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yep..the trend of being colder over ga/sc here. At this rate, atlanta is going to get into the area of snow..it literally is within spitting distance The 2m comparison, 6z run, is remarkable down here. MUCH colder overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This run puts athens in the game for major snow accumulation. In fact the nam is contradicting my earlier statement that it's only rain vs snow. It shows an area of sleet because it's colder in the boundary layer and the mid levels are colder. The statement you are looking is the NAM is out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For NC folks live by the NAM die by the NAM. What a difference a day makes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 LOL.. I ran a trend loop on the NAM 500mb vorticity maps and every one is completely different wrt vort max locations, strength, phasing... what a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NAM look pretty nice. i think the euro is on crack cranking the SLP inland with this hp configuration. I think what's more likely is what I said last night. we see a boundary setup over the southeast with the initial wave of overrunning/cad front. a slp forms on this front, and the 2ndary shortwave comes in behind and energizes it offshore. again this situation doesn't favor freezing rain in nc, more wet snow/sleet. i guess far eastern nc could see some zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 LOL.. I ran a trend loop on the NAM 500mb vorticity maps and every one is completely different wrt vort max locations, strength, phasing... what a mess. The usual, 12z GFS will trend to a better solution now and the NAM will come back by 12z tomorrow that's more moderate for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The 2m comparison, 6z run, is remarkable down here. MUCH colder overall Yeah it's nice to see a model finally showing the surface responding to the snow. The statement you are looking is the NAM is out to lunch lol it certainly has crossed my mind. It's hard to get too excited for snow where I'm at because of knowing how much the nam can be wrong at this range and how much the models keep changing with the first wave. The slightest shift north and it's either sleet or rain here with this first wave. But what gives me a little more hope is the fact that all of the models have slowly gotten colder and further south with the snow with this first wave. But if you are from rome to gainesville to hartwell and in the upstate, it looks really good for a nice snow with this first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NAM look pretty nice. i think the euro is on crack cranking the SLP inland with this hp configuration. I think what's more likely is what I said last night. we see a boundary setup over the southeast with the initial wave of overrunning/cad front. a slp forms on this front, and the 2ndary shortwave comes in behind and energizes it offshore. again this situation doesn't favor freezing rain in nc, more wet snow/sleet. i guess far eastern nc could see some zr. Well if it can get its act together on the energy in TX here... I'd agree. The energy over the N Plains looks intimidating and ready for a big phase with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That northern energy racing down @72 is going to try to save the day for NC folks. Nice low along the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The 12 NAM looks like a Charlotte to Raleigh south storm. For us north of that line we have to hope that first wave can drop an inch or two. We are getting close to the event and we can't expect huge shifts moving forward(maybe a little shift north if we're lucky). This might be another example of not wanting to be in the sweet spot 3/4 days out. EDIT: maybe I spoke to early....as Burger stated above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The NAM is trying to get a bomb off the coast @81 but it's 81 hours on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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