GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 To no surprise at all, the 6Z NAM has completely folded and looks similar to the Euro and company with some of wave 1's precip. waiting for wedging to get started due to its further south position/delay and a much stronger wave #2 now. Just two runs ago, it had a very weak/far south wave 2! So, now that it is no longer out to lunch, I'll analyze it. Of course, it overdoes qpf (as usual) in some areas like N/C GA. So, I'd ignore its ridiculously high totals there. Considering 850's, 925's, sfc features, and qpf/sim, (I don't have two meter temp.'s), it looks to me like it may very well be producing a whole lot of IP and some ZR for ATL-AHN-AGS-CAE during hours 60-84, where 850's are in the +2 to +3 C range during a bunch of the precip. (while there's strong wedging) and a major ZR down Delta's way where 850's hang around +4 to +5 C. Precip. is still not over at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 06z NAM finally has substantial ZR down to KCAE. We can only be so lucky if Larry's view is right for IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 To no surprise at all, the 6Z NAM has completely folded and looks similar to the Euro and company with some of wave 1's precip. waiting for wedging to get started due to its further south position/delay and a much stronger wave #2 now. Just two runs ago, it had a very weak/far south wave 2! So, now that it is no longer out to lunch, I'll analyze it. Of course, it overdoes qpf (as usual) in some areas like N/C GA. So, I'd ignore its ridiculously high totals there. Considering 850's, 925's, sfc features, and qpf/sim, (I don't have two meter temp.'s), it looks to me like it may very well be producing a whole lot of IP and some ZR for ATL-AHN-AGS-CAE during hours 60-84, where 850's are in the +2 to +3 C range during a bunch of the precip. (while there's strong wedging) and a major ZR down Delta's way where 850's hang around +4 to +5 C. Precip. is still not over at hour 84. Just got up for a few mins to see that the NAM is trying to go around to the other solutions. Again, verbatim, its just a cold rain with temps in the mid 30's, but with a pretty nice wedge built in I just can't see us staying at that range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 06z gfs is coming on board for wave 2, heavy precip moving into GA at 72 moving up I-85 at h81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 06z gfs is coming on board for wave 2, heavy precip moving into GA at 72 moving up I-85 at h81 Yep looks like a good hit for most of NC for snow and ice into northern GA and ice into much of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 06 GFS on board now for ZR into KCAE.So here, we have Euro, NAM, GFS, GGEM, (ukmet?), and SREF possibly.Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Winter storm watch all the way into central ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Winter storm watch all the way into central ga I'd guess KCAE will issue one by 3/3:30pm tomorrow for a lot of the midlands of sc etc as long as the 12z runs hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Folks; we are looking at a major ZR event per 06z GFS. in KCAE. Even as the second wave/the low goes up the SC coast; ZR wraps us us up bad. Be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 FFC: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO ATLANTA TO HOMER. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 2 TO 3 ACROSS THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS AND UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. * TIMING...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND TEMPERATURES...THESE IMPACTS MAY LAST INTO MID WEEK. * WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ON TUESDAY. * UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. FOLKS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND EVEN PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Folks; we are looking at a major ZR event per 06z GFS. in KCAE. Even as the second wave/the low goes up the SC coast; ZR wraps us us up bad. Be safe. Yeah most models are showing a very high qpf event down that way. Areas where it's below freezing could get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Folks; we are looking at a major ZR event per 06z GFS. in KCAE. Even as the second wave/the low goes up the SC coast; ZR wraps us us up bad. Be safe. Ya wow at the snow and ice storm the GFS is showing. Just would be devastating to say the least. Also look how far south the wedge of cold air is! Wow no good at all if this were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yeah most models are showing a very high qpf event down that way. Areas where it's below freezing could get ugly. Just one frame: (please feel free to delete @ mods (if needed)). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ya wow at the snow and ice storm the GFS is showing. Just would be devastating to say the least. Also look how far south the wedge of cold air is! Wow no good at all if this were to verify. I think the GFS is wrong showing the major wedge I posted above into almost Hilton Head/ Savannah. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 FFC mentions nothing about ice in the watch. 1-2" of snow for most of metro Atlanta but amounts could change. I'm honestly surprised they issued the watch so far south, even south of I-20. I personally don't see my area getting any snow but I guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think the GFS is wrong showing the major wedge I posted above into almost Hilton Head/ Savannah. We shall see. Ya could be. We still have several more runs to go before the models iron out the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 KCAE: ... ... ... (not sure the last time i saw them say "conservative") THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WINTER WEATHER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE AS FAR AS THE EXTENT OF WINTER WEATHER AND PRECIP AMOUNTS ...GIVEN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. AS COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MONDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A BAROCLINC ZONE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THEN HEAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS SHOW PERIODS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BAROCLINC ZONE AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...WHICH ARE CONSERVATIVE...FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN CAD...HAVE LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS TO LEAN CLOSER TO OUR WEDGE TECHNIQUE. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. HAVE INDICATED MIXED RAIN/SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PIEDMONT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...KEPT PRECIP ALL LIQUID FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS SOUTHWARD TO THE CSRA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro ENS mean, atleast for NC looks the same as 12z run, actually a touch colder at the surface, precip the same, SLP track the same, curious to see mean snowfall output in an hour or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 6z GFS looks to be coming on board with the same idea of the Euro, but just a smidge further east with the surface low track...it may be time to cash it in at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 6z gfs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro ENS mean, atleast for NC looks the same as 12z run, actually a touch colder at the surface, precip the same, SLP track the same, curious to see mean snowfall output in an hour or so 00z ECMWF ENS mean snow actually beefred up a little for RDU up to 7 inches now with a healthy 16 or so of the 50 members showing 9 or more. The ecmwf ens mean low track is a good deal further east than the operational ECMWF. I think op Euro taking the low up the coastal plain is too far west. That forces RDU over the rain probably after a 0.5 of QPF which is some snow mostly ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Can someone please explain why the local meteorologist has the current maps showing this storm down at Charlotte and points south? What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Can someone please explain why the local meteorologist has the current maps showing this storm down at Charlotte and points south? What am I missing? I believe their in-house models are only running through Tuesday. The initial wave that the models were keying on before has shifted south and weaker. The second wave is scheduled to come in Wednesday and now most of the models are keying on this as being the bigger precip producer. Plus, it may not all be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I believe their in-house models are only running through Tuesday. The initial wave that the models were keying on before has shifted south and weaker. The second wave is scheduled to come in Wednesday and now most of the models are keying on this as being the bigger precip producer. Plus, it may not all be snow. Ahh...gotcha. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For those able to see the Euro ensemble. Is the sense more of the tradition r/s cutoff, or is there more of a mixed bag effect? and whatever form the cutoff takes, is it more a west-to-east or southwest to northeast path. Large implications for a lot of folks in the eastern half of NC. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Check out the RGEM...now that looks good. Overrunning starting and a good fetch of moisture from the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For those able to see the Euro ensemble. Is the sense more of the tradition r/s cutoff, or is there more of a mixed bag effect? and whatever form the cutoff takes, is it more a west-to-east or southwest to northeast path. Large implications for a lot of folks in the eastern half of NC. Thanks! It looked colder and further east to me. As Allan said r/s line is probably somewhere around Raleigh east. Looked great for MBY actually but those in the east are probably too close to the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For those able to see the Euro ensemble. Is the sense more of the tradition r/s cutoff, or is there more of a mixed bag effect? and whatever form the cutoff takes, is it more a west-to-east or southwest to northeast path. Large implications for a lot of folks in the eastern half of NC. Thanks! keep in mind it is hard to say with the mean as just averages out everything. But I would say most likely as the wedge erodes wednesday afternoon/evening Fayetteville would end as rain, but it still implies a hefty thump Tuesday night/Wednesday. The ECMWF ENS mean snow (again keep in mind this takes ice into account as well) still shows slightly over 7 inches a little more even than RDU. It looks like the best band of frontogenesis will set up from NE GA across the NC/SC border Tuesday night/Wednesday which will mean a corridor of moderate to heavy precip. So a lot of that could fall before any changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Check out the RGEM...now that looks good. Overrunning starting and a good fetch of moisture from the gulf 6z RGEM snow accumulation from my model site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 6z RGEM snow accumulation from my model site. That looks like it would be a big snow maker for my neck of the woods and the upstate if we could go into the future of it. 5h looks like it would interact with all that energy floating around out west and maybe bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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