Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I don't disagree and I realize your comments are not aimed toward N GA, specifically. However, for ATL (I'm not talking about NC climo, which isn't the same), there have been a respectable 7 major ZR's involving a Miller A (that's about 25% of them; anyone interested could look up the old wx maps if they want as that is obviously how I discovered this), including the great 1/1973 ZR: - 2/6-7/1979 - 1/7-8/1973 (one of the worst, if not the worst, in ATL on record) - 3/25/1971 - 12/25/1943 - 1/7/1940 - 12/16/1932 - 1/21/1918 All seven of these had similar tracks of the Miller A low. That's interesting, Larry. I didn't know that location made that much of a difference. Thanks for sharing that. Do you know the geographical extent of those ice storms? I wouldn't think that an ice storm with a Miller A is not doable, but it seems like the geographical coverage of it would be much less than any rain or snow coverage associated with it or with a a Miller B-type system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 PRESS HGT(MSL) TEMP DEW PT WND DIR WND SPDHPA M C C DEG M/SE = Estimated Surface Height992. 239. -1.0 -1.8 47.5 7.0975. 381. -2.3 -3.0 49.9 9.7950. 587. -3.8 -3.9 53.3 10.7925. 798. -1.9 -2.4 75.5 10.4900. 1017. 0.2 -0.2 102.3 9.4850. 1478. 1.7 1.4 151.5 10.2800. 1966. 0.5 0.4 176.1 12.5750. 2482. -1.5 -1.9 193.3 11.6700. 3030. -4.1 -4.6 207.1 10.6650. 3612. -6.7 -7.2 221.5 13.5600. 4234. -9.4 -9.8 228.7 18.7550. 4903. -12.7 -12.9 231.0 22.4500. 5625. -16.9 -17.1 234.0 25.0450. 6408. -22.0 -22.2 236.8 28.8400. 7264. -28.1 -28.4 237.9 32.6350. 8208. -35.7 -35.8 237.7 35.4300. 9259. -44.5 -44.9 237.0 40.5250. 10452. -54.9 -54.9 238.2 49.0200. 11844. -64.4 -64.6 244.1 71.4150. 13602. -62.4 -68.7 258.9 61.3100. 16109. -62.7 -79.0 248.8 36.850. 20376. -58.9 -85.6 274.2 14.620. 26227. -52.0 -273.1 272.7 4.6 Aint seeing this huge warm nose on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 You guys can already see farther than I can, but the Euro looks like it's about to phase at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Euro seems to be coming in faster for our event compared to the GFS, would that be an accurate statement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The 12z Euro is the 5th in a row with a major winter storm for part of the SE within 2/11-13. Add that to 11 of the last 12 GFS runs. Any details about our main ingredients would be greatly appreciated. -Cold air supply (GL low, confluence, strength of high) -Strength/placement of our southern energy -Track of low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Euro has a zone of overrunning snow or rain/snow for much of NC on Monday. Boundary layer warmth could be an issue as temps look to be a little above freezing but could be a 1-2 or 1-3 inch swath mostly I-85 corridor north and west. Main energy comes out Tuesday night/Wednesday with a pretty big hit. Probably snow to ice for much of NE Ga, upstate SC, much of NC I-95 west. Keep in mind euro snow maps are probably going to be overdoing it a bit since some of this will cleary be sleet/freezing rain. Looks like it stay at or below freezing most of if not whole storm from Raleigh westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Ok, to answer my own question...after seeing it through Day 6, looks to be quick overrunning across North Carolina and then it lays down the hammer on the mountains by 144... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Euro if true this run would paralyze Charlotte. 0c line all the way to GA and maybe ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Euro if true this run would paralyze Charlotte. 0c line all the way to GA and maybe ATL. Hope the trend holds up, keep that 0c line marching south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Heavy snow in Charlotte by 0z on Tuesday. well, maybe not heavy but moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Heavy snow in Charlotte by 0z on Tuesday. Yes I think lady's and gent's this is the real deal... very good trend (so far). What's causing the transition to snow... a stronger HP or less of a warm nose, or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The 12Z Euro is a serious ZR all of the way to the ATL-AHN corridor verbatim via a Miller B per the model's two meter temp.'s. This is the coldest run of either the Euro or the GFS by a good margin (although the 12Z GFS is fairly close) for that corridor and the qpf is 1.5-2"! IF this were to verify closely as a ZR, it would potentially be the worst there since 1/1973. Combine that with the 12Z GFS doing something similar qpfwise (but with a Miller A, not Miller B ) and considering colder recent model trends, the risk of a major winter storm in N GA ~2/12 is clearly increasing though still only slowly due to inherent uncertainty six days away. Also, prior to 12Z today, the models were too warm for N GA (at least verbatim). Edit: Also, keep in mind that the Euro, if anything, is warm biased at two meters when there is a wedge and steady precip. in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 My God. Major ice storm for SC on the OP Euro. MAJOR I'd post the maps; but they are pay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Reports from the MA thread indicates that there is no Great Lakes low on this run of the euro. This could be why it's a colder run. I would be concerned that it shows up in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks like a 1040 HP over northern NE at 144, sliding out and down to 1036 by 168. Larry might say that the Euro's tendency to over-strengthen HP at these leads might be at play here. Also, does anybody else think it's bogus that the Euro tracks the storm right up into the established wedge like it does? I can only see the 24 hour panels, so I might be missing something.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Hope the trend holds up, keep that 0c line marching south! . Central Drug orangeades for everybody if this verifies. I'm hoping we can avoid major ZR and have mostly SN/IP ala 1-2004/2010/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The 12Z Euro is a serious ZR all of the way to the ATL-AHN corridor verbatim via a Miller B per the model's two meter temp.'s. This is the coldest run of either the Euro or the GFS by a good margin (although the 12Z GFS is fairly close) for that corridor and the qpf is 1.5-2"! IF this were to verify closely as a ZR, it would potentially be the worst there since 1/1973. Combine that with the 12Z GFS doing something similar qpfwise (but with a Miller A, not Miller B ) and considering colder recent model trends, the risk of a major winter storm in N GA ~2/12 is clearly increasing though still only slowly due to inherent uncertainty six days away. Also, prior to 12Z today, the models were too warm for N GA (at least verbatim). Edit: Also, keep in mind that the Euro, if anything, is warm biased at two meters when there is a wedge and steady precip. in the SE. do you think this could be a situation where Atlanta is right on the edge and areas near the airport and western suburbs get only rain while Gwinnett gets a major ice storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 . Central Drug orangeades for everybody if this verifies. I'm hoping we can avoid major ZR and have mostly SN/IP ala 1-2004/2010/2011 Well when they get power back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Banterish but if I were in the upstate of SC or the western 2/3rds of NC I'd be out pricing generators right now. This system screams major event for someone to me. I'm not very bullish for my area, seeing 31-33 and rain outcome ATM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Banterish but if I were in the upstate of SC or the western 2/3rds of NC I'd be out pricing generators right now. This system screams major event for someone to me. I'm not very bullish for my area, seeing 31-33 and rain outcome ATM... hopefully for us to the south; the HP is overdone.. the system itself has too much waa involved for 850s to stay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks like Heavy snow at CLT by wednesday. Temps near 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 looks like 8" of snow or so before the switch through IP and finally ZR occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Hickory probably gets probably 16" of snow over 2 days. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Now the bad news...KCUB is an inch of QPF that appears to be all ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 What is hard to tell here is if this is snow or sleet in NE Ga/western Carolinas. The 850s are in the -1 to -4 range for most, but the 700-850mb thicknesses are pretty warm (1550m) which is usually indicative of a warm nose somewhere, probably above 850. But accuweather soundings aren't updated yet so I cant tell. If the soundings are below freezing, would easily be 6-12 inches of snow from the Triad to CLT to upsate SC and extreme NE Ga and west and north. For Triangle, I would ascertain 2-4 inches of snow to significant freezing rain sleet (maybe 0.5-0.6 inches of freezing rain/sleet). Last 0.25 inch of QPF or so would likely be rain or freezing grain with temps around 32-33. Keep in mind, with a wedge established the models may break it down to early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 do you think this could be a situation where Atlanta is right on the edge and areas near the airport and western suburbs get only rain while Gwinnett gets a major ice storm ? As modeled by the 12Z Euro and especially considering a tendency toward a warm bias, no because it really isn't even that close of a call imo. With the Euor's setup, it would probably get down into the high 20's for much of ATL. The 12Z GFS might be closer to your scenario even with my thinking it is a few degrees too warm is accurate. Edit: Much of the ATL-AHN corridor on the 12Z Euro is within the +3 to +5 C 850 mb zone, which is right in the wheelhouse for major N GA ZR's with a wedge and heavy precip. The 12Z GFS has similar 850's. Edit 2: If 850's cool a little more, we could even start looking at heavy IP possibilities...Tony are you listening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Hickory probably gets probably 16" of snow over 2 days. Wow. So with the euro clown maps, cut this in half? No ice or sleet on the i40 on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z Euro gives me 1.28qpf 850s below 0 for almost the entire event goes to 1.0 for a very brief time. Temps stays in 24-26 range! I'll take it, but We know it will change many times before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Now the bad news...KCUB is an inch of QPF that appears to be all ZR. that can sure bring trees and lines down!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 So with the euro clown maps, cut this in half? No ice or sleet on the i40 on the euro? Probably toward the end of the event. Even if you say the front end thump is the only all snow part, that's almost .8 of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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