Feb 12-13 Sleet/Snow/ZR Event

[Lookout]

That's not what I see when I see the euro. Midlands and columbia get hit hard...especially north of an augusta to columbia line since it has little warming occuring until very late or not at all.[/quote

By ice or snow or both? Not n imby post but i rely on this site for preparing. Not my local tv station.

Depends on exactly where you are to be honest and one degree aloft difference means the difference between all types of precip. Hopefully will know more by tomorrow. With so much waffling around, it's really hard to make a call on how much of each precip type there will be right now for any one location...especially those on the southern/western edges.

So, does this one have your attention yet? LOL.  Your area is almost in the best spot according to this run. You have to like where you are sitting.

Depends on what you consider best spot lol. I actually enjoy ice storms but I don't want to be in the middle of 2 inches of freezing rain. Hopefully it would be cold enough to give my local more sleet than FZR. But I suppose it's fair to say it has caught my attention a small bit lol

[superjames1992]

ryan maue; if you read this; I hope you mean about those inaccurate snowfall maps (euro) you have... this is a major problem for many on an ice/sleet level.

 

I think he's calling bogus on the inland solution.

 

I have to give this storm credit: it's been exciting.  We're less than three days out and I can't even really give a ballpark estimate for snow here.  I could see anything from nothing to a foot.  The most likely scenario is probably 1-4" followed by a changeover to IP and/or ZR.

[GaWx]

My thoughts exactly Lookout.

I agree with Perry and Lookout about the worry about a devastating ice storm for north and central GA into the Columbia area. I still wonder when temp.'s would first fall to 32 in the ATL -AHN corridor. There's a little less precip. and perhaps a little delay in the wedging getting established. So, I wonder if there will be significant IP with this 1st wave or else if it will be mainly either rain or snow. Regardless, the 2nd wave has gotten stronger and wetter with a longer period of precip.

 

Edit: Nine Euro runs in a row with a major SE winter storm 2/11-13!

[Lookout]

Lookout; please let me see a "trend" to possibly  the ice going away.   Its a super 2.7 inch of liquid hit here.  I almost feel like it would be barely too warm here.

 

You're right though.. this is a  real bad deal for KCAE IF they are in the bullseye.

 

 

2m maps are like 32, 31, 33, etc during the event from what I saw in KCAE proper.  That could help a bit I hope.  That precip is heavy man! 

It would be quite remarkable if the euro was right and not at least a degree or two too warm for columbia proper. Even if it was completely right, it looks like anywhere north of augusta to columbia to florence is looking ready to shine, so to speak.

 

But as you can see here, areas further to the south are in the game per canadian. That's 1.5 inches of freezing rain south of augusta and columbia.

 

[DixieBlizzard]

Depends on what you consider best spot lol. I actually enjoy ice storms but I don't want to be in the middle of 2 inches of freezing rain. Hopefully it would be cold enough to give my local more sleet than FZR. But I suppose it's fair to say it has caught my attention a small bit lol

 

Man, I haven't seen hardly one model that doesn't thump you with something in the last 48 hours. AHN has been consistently pegged with snow/sleet/ZR on every run. Can't wait to see the product FFC puts out this morning. This one has to have them wondering what to do.

[Lookout]

I agree with Perry and Lookout about the worry about a devastating ice storm for north and central GA into the Columbia area. I still wonder when temp.'s would first fall to 32 in the ATL -AHN corridor. There's a little less precip. and perhaps a little delay in the wedging getting established. So, I wonder if there will be significant IP with this 1st wave or else if it will be mainly either rain or snow. Regardless, the 2nd wave has gotten stronger and wetter with a longer period of precip.

 

Edit: Nine Euro runs in a row with a major SE winter storm 2/11-13!

The euro has been trending more and more toward a snow vs rain situation with the first wave. This run has a nice little swath of snow it would appear with rain to the south. Freezing temps don't take over until afterwards. It's sort of odd though that even though it's colder aloft it's actually warmer to start off with at the surface.

[dsaur]

Lookout; please let me see a "trend" to possibly  the ice going away.   Its a super 2.7 inch of liquid hit here.  I almost feel like it would be barely too warm here.

 

You're right though.. this is a  real bad deal for KCAE IF they are in the bullseye.

 

 

2m maps are like 32, 31, 33, etc during the event from what I saw in KCAE proper.  That could help a bit I hope.  That precip is heavy man! 

Shawn, my boy, I fear you are squirming too much   They'll see, and take note.  I'm telling you they will.  Just act nonchalant, lol.

 Seriously, it would be so incredibly hard to turn all that into zr, I just can't believe it will happen to you.  It would be easier for you to get two feet of snow, I'd think.  You have to have perfect cooling in balance with the waa, matching it step by step over a long night to solidify that much.  You'd probably only get an inch...ok, 1 1/2 at the most   T

[jrips27]

This storm is so confusing. All over the place track wise, multiple waves of precip, different types of precip throughout, etc... Regardless, it appears FFC is going to have to issue something pretty soon and begin raising some alarms.

I'm all for more snow as compared to IP and ZR!

[Shawn]

Please; anyone in SC (especially the midlands) PLEASE pay attention to the modeling..  Lookout pretty much crushed my dreams of it missing us.. and we are absolutely screwed in the midlands if the current modeling is correct.

 

ANYONE around the midlands of SC.. if this ice storm happens as modeled as of 00z tonight..(maybe even a bit south of here) please once again keep up to date on these forums etc.  This is a really delicate situation.  I'm scared... and if close to 1.5-2 inches of ZR is coming here; I'm leaving the state.

[FLO]

Fyi im in irmo north of I20 up I26 towards chapin. If u know where that is.

Depends on exactly where you are to be honest and one degree aloft difference means the difference between all types of precip. Hopefully will know more by tomorrow. With so much waffling around, it's really hard to make a call on how much of each precip type there will be right now for any one location...especially those on the southern/western edges.

Depends on what you consider best spot lol. I actually enjoy ice storms but I don't want to be in the middle of 2 inches of freezing rain. Hopefully it would be cold enough to give my local more sleet than FZR. But I suppose it's fair to say it has caught my attention a small bit lol

[jrips27]

Please; anyone in SC (especially the midlands) PLEASE pay attention to the modeling.. Lookout pretty much crushed my dreams of it missing us.. and we are absolutely screwed in the midlands if the current modeling is correct.

ANYONE around the midlands of SC.. if this ice storm happens as modeled as of 00z tonight..(maybe even a bit south of here) please once again keep up to date on these forums etc. This is a really delicate situation. I'm scared... and if close to 1.5-2 inches of ZR is coming here; I'm leaving the state.

As Tony was saying, I think an absolute worst case scenario is around an inch of ZR. It sounds like it's extremely hard to get anymore than that. Who knows though, if there ever was gonna be one in the SE, this would be the storm to dump 1.5-2 inches of ZR lol.

[Shawn]

Fyi im in irmo north of I20 up I26 towards chapin. If u know where that is.F

 

Flo; you are fuxed if it is real.  Per 00z Euro.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

So just to make sure I'm right.... MS and AL could get ice but it won't be CAD related, but GA and SC could get ice from CAD ?

[Shawn]

So just to make sure I'm right.... MS and AL could get ice but it won't be CAD related, but GA and SC could get ice from CAD ?

 

GA/SC/NC could get major snow due to CAD.  CAD doesnt look to spread to the west of those areas though.  It's more of an "overhead" deal for them.

[Shawn]

So i need more than my normal 2 gallons of milk and 2 bags of lettuce and 2 loafs of bread this week? And my extra V8 and beer?

 

Haha flo.  Just pay attention to my forum.  Man; nobody here (other than the upstate) cares about us down here close to KCAE.. other than michelle. (buckeye).... thankfully i have some GA people there that like how I post about their areas too (espcially N.GA) since that weather heads this way...

 

We could either be looking at something really bad.. at least .5 - 1.00 of ZR or just rain with a bit of sleet/snow mixed it from the first wave.

 

I will be able to let you guys in SC know much better come 12/00z tomorrow.

[DixieBlizzard]

Haha flo.  Just pay attention to my forum.  Man; nobody here (other than the upstate) cares about us down here close to KCAE.. other than michelle. (buckeye)

 

I disagree.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

GA/SC/NC could get major snow due to CAD. CAD doesnt look to spread to the west of those areas though. It's more of an "overhead" deal for them.

it really sucks living right on the state line sometimes. It's an "overhead" deal for AL and CAD for GA and I'm 15 miles from AL so I don't know which is more likely for me. Maybe I'll just be stuck between the 2 areas and just have rain here.

[Shawn]

Whoa Shawn. I'm just saying a lot of guys downstream from you correspond with you all the time and have listened to you fret all day about a storm that is yet to be determined. I think the GA guys have especially given you good feedback. Chill bro.

 

Naw I'm not mad Dixie. Don't get me wrong; but I can name everyone that has repsonded to a possible big ice storm for kcae..  Not trying to step on toes etc.

 

nice guys: lookout, buckeye, gawx, dsaur, many sc posters (cant name all), frostie, robert even. etc.

[GaWx]

As Tony was saying, I think an absolute worst case scenario is around an inch of ZR. It sounds like it's extremely hard to get anymore than that. Who knows though, if there ever was gonna be one in the SE, this would be the storm to dump 1.5-2 inches of ZR lol.

 

Well, he was feeling ok until your last line about 1.5-2 lol. Of course, messengers shouldn't be shot as I always like to say.

[DixieBlizzard]

try living in west ga.... Even worse.

 

I will say you are kind of in a similar spot but I'll be honest with you, TW may be a good forum for you to follow too if you don't. A lot of people just up the road, literally, from you.

 

BTW, I have seen CADs wedge your way more than once in situations like this. I moved my family to GA from Missouri in 97. We had some great CADs when I lived in Douglasville (Exit 34). That's not far from you at all and when I used to drive between BHM and ATL, I always noticed the Carrolton area a few degrees cooler than surrounding areas. Just listen to Chris and Tony. SouthernWx2 (Perry) is the absolute resident expert for your area. When you see him, message him.

[GaWx]

Shawn, my boy, I fear you are squirming too much   They'll see, and take note.  I'm telling you they will.  Just act nonchalant, lol.

 Seriously, it would be so incredibly hard to turn all that into zr, I just can't believe it will happen to you.  It would be easier for you to get two feet of snow, I'd think.  You have to have perfect cooling in balance with the waa, matching it step by step over a long night to solidify that much.  You'd probably only get an inch...ok, 1 1/2 at the most   T

 

 As you said, a ZR storm with 1.5-2"+ across three states is extremely rare (as far as I know). I'm not aware of any at this time although I haven't looked real hard for that kind of storm. I have recently found several 1"ish ATL ZR's that have also produced ~1"liquid equivalent worth of IP and/or ZR for cities like CLT and RDU fwiw. The ones I analyzed were Miller A's interestingly enough.

[LovingGulfLows]

I hope if we get freezing rain, we also get snow or sleet here in the ATL area...the thought of over an inch of ice just scared me. Awesome to see the glaze on everything, but not when your lights are out.

[Cheeznado]

Have not weighed in for a while, been out. Euro ensembles not too different than the Op run- I still think that someone from ATL NE is really going to get an historic ice storm. The slightly warmer trend of the Euro is a double edged sword, perhaps we can escape the really devastating 28-30 degree all ice scenario and be more like 31-32, but it is looking less likely the ice accumulations will be tempered by some of it falling as sleet like in 1988. In any event some reading this will not have power for some days I am afraid.

[superjames1992]

The 06z NAM is looking pretty Euroish with the initial wave so far.

 

EDIT: Not really any wintry precip into NC by hr 72.  There's moisture down in SC and GA, but it's rain except in far N GA.

[dsaur]

 As you said, a ZR storm with 1.5-2"+ across three states is extremely rare (as far as I know). I'm not aware of any at this time although I haven't looked real hard for that kind of storm. I have recently found several 1"ish ATL ZR's that have also produced ~1"liquid equivalent worth of IP and/or ZR for cities like CLT and RDU fwiw.

Yeah the p type spread in a wide storm would be wide, and probably with rather sharp gradients if it's cad based.  I think Shawn is just hyperventilating, lol.  We are a long way from anyone having 2 inches of zr.  At last a day and three quarters, lol.  And I've told him you can be in a pine forest and just have your power tap torn from the wall for damage in a biggie.  Mostly they just scare the hell out of you, and put you in the dark for a week Now, I'm not saying the other people don't get creamed...you just have to have a little luck...and act uninterested, lol.   Tony

[GaWx]

I hope if we get freezing rain, we also get snow or sleet here in the ATL area...the thought of over an inch of ice just scared me. Awesome to see the glaze on everything, but not when your lights are out.

 

 After looking at the 0Z models, I still think that sleet could be a large portion of this mess. The CMC certainly suggests that verbatim, which agrees with their +2 to +3 C 850's for much of the precip. The JMA sort of suggests a good bit of sleet is quite possible although the maps are 24 hours apart. The UK also suggests some IP. The Euro? Hard to tell but possible. However, it admittedly looks more ZRish this past run due to some warming at 850. It has waffled some between more IP and more ZR from my perspective. The 0Z GFS looks like mainly ZR for the wintry precip. Some snow seems possible near the start of wave #1. The NAM is still out to lunch imo but slowly coming back to reality. When it does, I can analyze it better.

[GaWx]

Have not weighed in for a while, been out. Euro ensembles not too different than the Op run- I still think that someone from ATL NE is really going to get an historic ice storm. The slightly warmer trend of the Euro is a double edged sword, perhaps we can escape the really devastating 28-30 degree all ice scenario and be more like 31-32, but it is looking less likely the ice accumulations will be tempered by some of it falling as sleet like in 1988. In any event some reading this will not have power for some days I am afraid.

 

I assume you agree that 31-32 F could still be devastating as was the case in 1973 among others. Tony has mentioned this several times.

[superjames1992]

At hr 78 on the 06z NAM, a surface low is popping in the NE Gulf with precip moving northwards and CAD taking hold.  Looks like ZR down to CAE with snow in the southern half of NC so far.  If you could extend this past hr 84, the CAD regions might get pummeled.  Probably snow to ice (mostly ice).  Just a guess, though.

 

As Jacob says below, it appears to have finally caved to the Euro, more or less.  Heavy snows in extreme N GA and SW NC at the end of the run.  Major ice for upstate SC down into the Midlands.

[jacobr57]

At hr 78 on the 06z NAM, a surface low is popping in the NE Gulf with precip moving northwards and CAD taking hold.  Looks like ZR down to CAE with snow in the southern half of NC so far.  If you could extend this past hr 84, the CAD regions might get pummeled.  Probably snow to ice (mostly ice).

It looks much different from previous runs. Though it is more similar to the euro. It looks like the mountains would get hammered if you could extend it.

[shaggy]

What I don't get is in the latest update of the WPC winter weather products they hatched central eastern NC with a 40% of 4 inches or more and a 10% hatch for 8 inches.....looking at the latest models it leaves me baffled.

 

MHX disco adds to my confusion

 

SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE EXACT TRACK STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR THE LATEST
PUBLIC ZONES I HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEGINNING TUESDAY
MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. PRECIP WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD
DURING THE DAY. MOST GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOKED TOO WARM ON TUESDAY AND
USED LATEST ECMWF MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS...WHICH KEEPS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE 32F-35F DEGREE RANGE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS. HAVE KEPT PRECIP ALL SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
WHERE MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL REMAIN BELOW THE ZERO DEGREES FROM THE GROUND
UP...SO AM FORECASTING ALL SNOW THROUGH THE AREA. WILL NOT PUT IN
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ZONES THIS FAR AHEAD WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES ACCUMULATION FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL EXIT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME WEST WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BELOW 850 MB DURING
THE DAY AND AM GOING WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 ON THE COASTAL PLAIN TO
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THE SOUTH COAST AND SOUTHERN OUTER
BANKS.