ncskywarn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Based in what I'm hearing KRDU would get a cold rain or would there be some frozen in there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Still want to see some agreement with Goofy, before I believe in a solution. I think of this last snow where Chris and CMan and I were in the hot spot, then it went north, I didn't get my second inch until a hour before the end, so I was losing ground as the solution finally developed. My guess it this won't be written for some until the last minute either. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 How much of that falls as snow? 0.3" QPF falls before 850s get above 0C. 850s crash at the end of the storm, so it's possible we end as snow. I'd guess we'd get both IP and ZR during the middle of the storm. It would really be a pretty major storm, possibly rivaling December 2002 in some ways (different setup, certainly)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0.3" QPF falls before 850s get above 0C. 850s crash at the end of the storm, so it's possible we end as snow. I'd guess we'd get both IP and ZR during the middle of the storm. It would really be a pretty major storm, possibly rivaling December 2002 in some ways... where you getting qpf totals so fast? I'm on accuweather pro and it's slow!! looking for mwk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Mostly sleet with some snow for Atlanta and the northern burbs? I know the 12z was mainly IP/ZR, but if this run was colder we could see a bit of snow, right? I appreciate all the pbp tonight. Shows just about anything is still on the table for us in the SE! Justin, I feel better about some more snow for the NW burbs after that run of the EURO. The 2nd system just looks like it's going to make some concrete for us though. That crap wouldn't melt for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0.3" QPF falls before 850s get above 0C. 850s crash at the end of the storm, so it's possible we end as snow. I'd guess we'd get both IP and ZR during the middle of the storm. It would really be a pretty major storm, possibly rivaling December 2002 in some ways (different setup, certainly)... oh wow! I love those types of storms. Even though it might cause lots of issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 where you getting qpf totals so fast? I'm on accuweather pro and it's slow!! looking for mwk WeatherBell. I'd guess you're pretty close to GSO, though QPF is a bit less. Upstate SC would be a scary place to be if the Euro verified. That's ugly in the CLT-CAE corridor. It seems that it's a bit strange to get such a major ice storm from an inland runner, though. Is this solution believable? The Euro is a bit on its own with an inland runner, too, so we'll see how that works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro run screams major snowstorm (8-12) for all mountains and the first tier of counties along the Blue Ridge (Rutherford, McDowell, Burke, Caldwell, Wilkes, Alexander) Once you get east of 321 the transition zone will begin with mixing the closer you get to I-77. Now...let's get to the middle of a potentially huge problem for the folks at the Greer CWA. If you believe in the idea of the first s/w being a player, then wintry precip occurs as early as Monday Night...however if you wanted to go the Euro route, the significant winter weather wouldn't occur until after 0z Wednesday. Do you issue winter weather products with the next forecast cycle coming up later this morning with the caveat that the worst weather could posibly not occur inside the 3rd and 4th Period range of the forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It seems to me as if this storm is steadily heading toward the typical, or what used to be typical, NC winter storm. A low coming up out of the gulf with the rain snow line dependent on the track but usually somewhere through the piedmont. Often the line is close to Raleigh cutting SE through the sand hills to the Charlotte area. The line moves east and west depending on the track of the storm but normally remains in this general area. Depending on which side of the line Raleigh and Charlotte lie will determine the number of happy or unhappy people. This can lead to very heavy snow just a few miles from where nothing falls but rain. Someone will be very happy while others will be wailing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Justin, I feel better about some more snow for the NW burbs after that run of the EURO. The 2nd system just looks like it's going to make some concrete for us though. That crap wouldn't melt for days. Yeah I agree. I wonder how much ZR we'd be looking at if the Euro is right. Maybe Delta, Larry, or Lookout (the GA saviors) could help us out lol? Really would hate to be an Atlanta forecaster right now. You almost can't win in this situation. Models are all over the place and you have to put out something for an area traumatized recently from 2 inches of snow. If you shut down the city and it busts? You're going to get A LOT of heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro run screams major snowstorm (8-12) for all mountains and the first tier of counties along the Blue Ridge (Rutherford, McDowell, Burke, Caldwell, Wilkes, Alexander) Once you get east of 321 the transition zone will begin with mixing the closer you get to I-77. Now...let's get to the middle of a potentially huge problem for the folks at the Greer CWA. If you believe in the idea of the first s/w being a player, then wintry precip occurs as early as Monday Night...however if you wanted to go the Euro route, the significant winter weather wouldn't occur until after 0z Wednesday. Do you issue winter weather products with the next forecast cycle coming up later this morning with the caveat that the worst weather could posibly not occur inside the 3rd and 4th Period range of the forecast? The euro is a good track for a paste bomb for me, and you, back into the mountains. Not sure what qpf was but not a bad track, quite a few storms have taken this track in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I should note that the bombing coastal is pummeling central TN per the Euro. Nashville is getting clocked. Interesting. The low goes through Raleigh and precip reaches central TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Interesting. The low goes through Raleigh and precip reaches central TN? Yeah, it brings a strong band of heavy snow (2m temperatures are near freezing in central TN) up through central TN and up through WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro seems similar for western North Carolina anyway, to Dec 18. 2009, no? Just a little less qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 WeatherBell. I'd guess you're pretty close to GSO, though QPF is a bit less. Upstate SC would be a scary place to be if the Euro verified. That's ugly in the CLT-CAE corridor. It seems that it's a bit strange to get such a major ice storm from an inland runner, though. Is this solution believable? The Euro is a bit on its own with an inland runner, too, so we'll see how that works out. Looks like .82qpf stay below freezing whole event 850s warm to 1.1 for a brief time then crash at the end... EDIT: looks like I do get above freezing right at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Larry, Lookout, I think the euro is probably over-doing the phased look at H5, but verbatim this run, IMO I think given the 2m warm bias MCN to ATL-AHN and AGS are in line to see a significant ZR storm when this arrives tue night into wed night..Thoughts? This run, to me, is a *devastating* ice storm for parts of ga/sc after several inches of snow with the lead wave for the northern part of the state. I don't like to use terminology that like very often but I'm just calling it like I see it..and remember this is an interpretation of model output and what it would mean, I'm not committed to saying it's true or that I fully believe it. At any rate, It has temps at or slightly below freezing through hour 102 in the athens to atlanta corridor .where 2 plus inches of precip has falling. The warming the euro shows AFTER temps drop below freezing is unlikely...but even at face value temps are at or below 32 for some for the entire 2nd system. One of the craziest pair of systems I've ever seen as far as trying to get a handle on what the hell is going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yeah I agree. I wonder how much ZR we'd be looking at if the Euro is right. Maybe Delta, Larry, or Lookout (the GA saviors) could help us out lol? Really would hate to be an Atlanta forecaster right now. You almost can't win in this situation. Models are all over the place and you have to put out something for an area traumatized recently from 2 inches of snow. If you shut down the city and it busts? You're going to get A LOT of heat. They actually might have an out really if things go badly after calling for a big one..all they have to say is "hey you wanted to be warned IF it could happen". But in all seriousness, this is a pretty serious situation if it unfolds like the euro. One caveat, is there could be more sleet to the north than freezing rain. The canadian certainly implies that to be the case..and it could be the case with the euro as the boundary layer above the surface to 875mb is likely to be very cold after the cad sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernWx2 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This run, to me, is a *devastating* ice storm for parts of ga/sc after several inches of snow with the lead wave for the northern part of the state. I don't like to use terminology that like very often but I'm just calling it like I see it..and remember this is an interpretation of model output and what it would mean, I'm not committed to saying it's true or that I fully believe it. At any rate, It has temps at or slightly below freezing through hour 102 in the athens to atlanta corridor .where 2 plus inches of precip has falling. The warming the euro shows AFTER temps drop below freezing is unlikely...but even at face value temps are at or below 32 for some for the entire 2nd system. One of the craziest pair of systems I've ever seen as far as trying to get a handle on what the hell is going to happen My thoughts exactly Lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Okay. KCAE/midlands of SC seem like the Euro is trying to back off a bit. THe key word is "trying". The heaviest axis of "fake snow" per 00z Euro is over Lex/Saluda/CAE/Newberry.. BUT... its further north that previous runs. If we are lucky here in the midlands; it might be trying to take the heavier icing north. I'll take that! Eps should probably be less than 51/51 members for KCAE. We will see soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This thing is going to change several more times I think. Extremely complicated set of systems. I'm not sure I buy the inland runner theory right now that Doc is selling us.....it's turning the low right into the teeth of a pretty damn strong CAD signature. Not sure i buy that when path is least resistance would be to track 100-ish miles east of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Okay. KCAE/midlands of SC seem like the Euro is trying to back off a bit. THe key word is "trying". The heaviest axis of "fake snow" per 00z Euro is over Lex/Saluda/CAE/Newberry.. BUT... its further north that previous runs. If we are lucky here in the midlands; it might be trying to take the heavier icing north. I'll take that! Eps should probably be less than 51/51 members for KCAE. We will see soon. I know 73 spanked parts of Ala, but I don't know if it got over to you. Most of the bad ones seem more localized to me. Maybe it's just I was preoccupied with my situation I didn't pay attention to other states. But two inches across three states seems a bit much. Larry is there precedence for that? I would have thought the warm nose would do it's damage to most south and west, and Carolina would stay cold next to the fridge. It takes a lot to get a two inch ice storm over a big area, I'd guess. More in pockets. Be easier to get wide spread sleet with more uniform temps that uniform zr with a robust warm nose. Just musing. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Okay. KCAE/midlands of SC seem like the Euro is trying to back off a bit. THe key word is "trying". The heaviest axis of "fake snow" per 00z Euro is over Lex/Saluda/CAE/Newberry.. BUT... its further north that previous runs. If we are lucky here in the midlands; it might be trying to take the heavier icing north. I'll take that! Eps should probably be less than 51/51 members for KCAE. We will see soon. That's not what I see when I see the euro. Midlands and columbia get hit hard...especially north of an augusta to columbia line since it has little warming occuring until very late or not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I know 73 spanked parts of Ala, but I don't know if it got over to you. Most of the bad ones seem more localized to me. Maybe it's just I was preoccupied with my situation I didn't pay attention to other states. But two inches across three states seems a bit much. Larry is there precedence for that? I would have thought the warm nose would do it's damage to most south and west, and Carolina would stay cold next to the fridge. It takes a lot to get a two inch ice storm over a big area, I'd guess. More in pockets. Be easier to get wide spread sleet with more uniform temps that uniform zr with a robust warm nose. Just musing. T Exactly. What is represented is an extreme event, one that really does not occur very often. So on that alone, it's worth being cautious about and not buying into it hook, line, and sinker yet. The models keep flipping back and forth like fish out of water so I wouldn't be shocked, to say the least, if it changes again by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Did the timing of the first wave slow alot on the euro? I thought I heard it mentioned in the pbp. The other models had it breaking out early Tues morning. What time would it start in NGa and upstate based on the euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That's not what I see when I see the euro. Midlands and columbia get hit hard...especially north of an augusta to columbia line since it has little warming occuring until very late or not at all.[/quote By ice or snow or both? Not n imby post but i rely on this site for preparing. Not my local tv station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtomlinwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ryan Maue from weather bell just tweeted not to look at the storm in the 5 day Euro. Don't know what exactly that means though. Maybe he's not believing the cutting up the coast to the NE? https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/432408162570739712 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That's not what I see when I see the euro. Midlands and columbia get hit hard...especially north of an augusta to columbia line since it has little warming occuring until very late or not at all. So, does this one have your attention yet? LOL. Your area is almost in the best spot according to this run. You have to like where you are sitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Did the timing of the first wave slow alot on the euro? I thought I heard it mentioned in the pbp. The other models had it breaking out early Tues morning. What time would it start in NGa and upstate based on the euro run? There's some light stuff going around on Monday evening, but the heavier stuff really doesn't come in until Tuesday around dawn for N GA and a little later out your way. Ryan Maue from weather bell just tweeted not to look at the storm in the 5 day Euro. Don't know what exactly that means though. Maybe he's not believing the cutting up the coast to the NE? https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/432408162570739712 He follows it up with: 00z coastal low from ECMWF is 15 mb deeper compared to 12z yet tracks completely over land +5 days (Thursday) ... will see ensembles in morn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That's not what I see when I see the euro. Midlands and columbia get hit hard...especially north of an augusta to columbia line since it has little warming occuring until very late or not at all. Lookout; please let me see a "trend" to possibly the ice going away. Its a super 2.7 inch of liquid hit here. I almost feel like it would be barely too warm here. You're right though.. this is a real bad deal for KCAE IF they are in the bullseye. 2m maps are like 32, 31, 33, etc during the event from what I saw in KCAE proper. That could help a bit I hope. That precip is heavy man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 ryan maue; if you read this; I hope you mean about those inaccurate snowfall maps (euro) you have... this is a major problem for many on an ice/sleet level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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