Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Canadian putting out 6-8" around CLT... I think this will end up being one big drawn out system and less of two separate systems where the southern s/w will come in and enhance the low in place driven by the leading wave. The model does phase with the polar energy late... should it occur a bit earlier, precip could be significantly more as the low bombs off the coast. Just something to watch. Right now, it's already looking like a big winter storm for many. Def don't want to be farther south with the freezing rain threat. I hate that stuff and have never had a good experience with it. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 most models have CLT around 4-6 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Larry, it appears that the CMC is a massive ZR or IP storm for GA. 2m Temps, from weather bell, look pretty dang cold as all of mid and NGA go below freezing by 0-6z Wed right as that 2nd mass of moisture comes in. Lines up very well with EURO And now the GFS (verbatim its the coldest at 2m of the 3) Edit: CMC has about 1-1.30" QPF around here and up to ATL-AHN in that time frame...WOW and almost 2" total qpf for both events around MCN Chris, Wow, I'll have to check that out. That sounds pretty wicked! It definitely sounds like the outlier models (NAM and GFS) are caving to the King and company. Now watch the incredibly consistent Euro trick us and suddenly change at 0Z lol. I would be quite surprised if it were to change too markedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I've been kinda sitting on the sidelines here with this storm and haven't said a whole lot...but just looking at the synoptic setup, it is obvious for the North Carolina Mountains/Foothills and Piedmont to cash in, we need that initial s/w to be the more dominant wave. It seemed for a while that the models were converging to that idea but the 0z suite so far as added a bit of doubt into that, especially the GFS. Of course the Euro runs would be pretty much a combo of both shortwaves combined into one prolonged event that begins as snow and transitions to possible mixed precip even up here in my neck of the woods. I know a lot of my local friends on social media have been asking for my take...and sadly enough I've had to wait until tomorrow because there is some sense of the unknown...lets face it the American models flip around more than the guy cooking on the grill at Waffle House so I have been leary no doubt. I will say this much, if we can get the lead wave to be the main player, we might be able to get the Carolina mountains a significant winter storm (6 inches is my definition of significant) and maybe even further east than that. I've got my fingers crossed!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Canadian putting out 6-8" around CLT... I think this will end up being one big drawn out system and less of two separate systems where the southern s/w will come in and enhance the low in place driven by the leading wave. Def don't want to be farther south with the freezing rain threat. I hate that stuff and have never had a good experience with it. Good luck! Don't forget about your inch if sleet too :-). That would be an incredible storm, matches up with Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The GGEM gives RDU ~3" of snow followed by a little sleet and then about .50" of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The UKMET looks like an absolute bomb up and down the east coast, FWIW... 985 mb (!!!) LP off of Cape Cod at hr 120. Don't know about P-type, temperatures, etc., but you'd have to think that would be a big storm for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I've been kinda sitting on the sidelines here with this storm and haven't said a whole lot...but just looking at the synoptic setup, it is obvious for the North Carolina Mountains/Foothills and Piedmont to cash in, we need that initial s/w to be the more dominant wave. It seemed for a while that the models were converging to that idea but the 0z suite so far as added a bit of doubt into that, especially the GFS. Of course the Euro runs would be pretty much a combo of both shortwaves combined into one prolonged event that begins as snow and transitions to possible mixed precip even up here in my neck of the woods. I know a lot of my local friends on social media have been asking for my take...and sadly enough I've had to wait until tomorrow because there is some sense of the unknown...lets face it the American models flip around more than the guy cooking breakfast Waffle House so I have been leary no doubt. I will say this much, if we can get the lead wave to be the main player, we might be able to get the Carolina mountains a significant winter storm (6 inches is my definition of significant) and maybe even further east than that. I've got my fingers crossed!!! Even with the new 0z solutions, WNC still gets a pretty good hit. Asheville looks to get right around .5 inches liquid on both the GEFS and the GEM. Though I believe youre right, in order to get the major storm we were looking at before we need the lead wave to be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The GGEM gives RDU ~3" of snow followed by a little sleet and then about .50" of freezing rain. That's more snow than I originally thought...The combination of snow/ip/zr will make for one nasty storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Don't forget about your inch if sleet too :-). That would be an incredible storm, matches up with Euro. Heh.. Allan's sleet maps has it east of 85. I am west of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Heh.. Allan's sleet maps has it east of 85. I am west of it. John WOW... It has been a while bud. Hope all is well!! I agree...I like where we are sitting. What time does the EURO start rolling out? Thanks for all of your analysis! Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I've been kinda sitting on the sidelines here with this storm and haven't said a whole lot...but just looking at the synoptic setup, it is obvious for the North Carolina Mountains/Foothills and Piedmont to cash in, we need that initial s/w to be the more dominant wave. It seemed for a while that the models were converging to that idea but the 0z suite so far as added a bit of doubt into that, especially the GFS. Of course the Euro runs would be pretty much a combo of both shortwaves combined into one prolonged event that begins as snow and transitions to possible mixed precip even up here in my neck of the woods. I know a lot of my local friends on social media have been asking for my take...and sadly enough I've had to wait until tomorrow because there is some sense of the unknown...lets face it the American models flip around more than the guy cooking on the grill at Waffle House so I have been leary no doubt. I will say this much, if we can get the lead wave to be the main player, we might be able to get the Carolina mountains a significant winter storm (6 inches is my definition of significant) and maybe even further east than that. I've got my fingers crossed!!! Well put. I would like to see a beefed up first wave myself. The second wave does nothing for me. Oh well hope someone gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 John WOW... It has been a while bud. Hope all is well!! I agree...I like where we are sitting. What time does the EURO start rolling out? Thanks for all of your analysis! Jason around 1am... I'm ready! Euro's going to hammer us, man. I can feel it. Don't care if I jinx it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Man... Things are getting really interesting. As GaWx & Delta have talked about... I too think the 2m temps are too warm for most of Georgia, including over here in Columbus. The more I look at things, the more things look really icy for the CAD regions Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. I mean, the GFS has us in the mid-upper 30s in Columbus, but a stronger CAD will send temperatures down. It's going to be fun the next couple of days. LOL! I think it could get interesting all the way to you as well. GFS and now the CMC has over 1.25" QPF in that range where it could be all ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Every model is just a smidge to my south and east, I need a 50 mile nw jog. If euro holds to it's 12z solution I'm not giving up until tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ya, the king is running...I would also be surprised if it strays to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 00z GGEm is a big ice hit for the midlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ya, the king is running...I would also be surprised if it strays to much. Careful... it could spite you and trend to the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Snowgoose Tuesday looks like a real toughie to me at two meters! The Euro, which is often at least several degrees too warm there, has ~36-7 at ATL-AHN and wedging getting going in the morning with brisk NE winds really bringing in that air from the NE. I see much of PA is below zero then for lows and I know the snowpack up there is pretty impressive. With steady precip. then and 850's at a mere 1-2 C, it is hard for me to believe that temp.s in ATL-AHN wouldn't drop to 32 by around noon at the latest if the wedge comes in like the 12Z Euro has along with steady precip. However, the Euro keeps it at ~33-35 as of 1 PM. When considering the Euro's warm bias at two meters when there's good wedging and steady precip., I really think the Euro would be too warm by several degrees assuming its wedge strength would verify, thus making it quite possible ATL-AHN would be down to 32 or lower by 18Z. Yet, you don't think they 'll reach 32 til 7 PM, similar to what the Euro has verbatim . Thoughts? Edit: If the +1 to +2 C 850's along with wedging and steady precip. of the Euro were to verify, I 'd expect an accumulating sleetstorm and temp.'s to fall into the middle 20's before the sleet ends Tuesday evening. This is largely based on my study of old wx maps' 850's for times of IP, including the great 2/1979 and 1/1988 4" IP's. fwiw, I'm happy with tonights runs so far. I haven't had time to talk about it but I'm watching them and have been smiling..although it's still very complicated imo. We'll see what the euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Holding serve so far thru 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Holding serve so far thru 42 agreed, it looks nearly identical to the 12z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's actually a little colder vs the 12z run over north ga through 48 hours. 54 hours has the 0c 850 from rome to around augusta. light something falling but not much yet..totals similar to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 HR 48 looks very close to 12z run. However, its looking colder at 2m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's actually a little colder vs the 12z run over north ga through 48 hours. LOL great minds think alike? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The overrunning precip back over AR at 54 has vanished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 HR 54 no change in QPF or H5 energy. a little slower this run, but colder at 2m and stronger with SFC high...1038 it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 HR 54 no change in QPF or H5 energy. a little slower this run, but colder at 2m and stronger with SFC high...1038 it appears 850s are what i'm following with the first wave since it means more snow/sleet for north ga with it. it's more supressed with the first wave..which probably means more with the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Definitely strenghening the main system ... everything shifted west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 hr 72 it looks like its slower moving qpf in with first piece and a bit further south with that this run, but it appears all systems are about go for launch with 2nd one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 euro is a pretty good hit for north ga..looks like 2-4 inches of snow from somewhere between atlanta/rome to athens north before going to sleet or freezing rain with the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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