burrel2 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Correct me if I am wrong, but it looks to me like the Ukmet develops one main consolidated system that hits when the CAD high is in the perfect position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Definitely a different look to the CMC through 84 hours vs. 12z run -- actually follows the 0z NAM -- moves first wave of precip through faster and the precip field is further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'd have zero doubt looking at the 00Z UKMET and 00Z GFS that everything after 00-03Z Tue eve into Wed is ZR or IP in your area up through ATL...I'm becoming increasingly confident everything from maybe 30-50 miles north of ATL on southward before 00Z Tue evening will be all rain however....I was doubtful about the 06z-18z window Tuesday for awhile but to me the wedge simply does not get in place in time to save the first wave except for far NRN GA. I would fully agree with that!! I Think the wedge doesn't get here in time for that, but whats nuts is the euro has over 1" QPF in that window after 7pm TUE-7pm WED. The GFS is about 1-1.25" QPF as well in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The Canadian black and white maps have been stuck on hr 60 for about 20 minutes now. Is anyone else getting that? It looks pretty similar to last night's run at that point and maybe a hair south of its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I would fully agree with that!! I Think the wedge doesn't get here in time for that, but whats nuts is the euro has over 1" QPF in that window after 7pm TUE-7pm WED. The GFS is about 1-1.25" QPF as well in that range. Believe it or not a big wildcard could be getting a window of clearing, or at least precip stopping Tuesday during the afternoon, this may enable temps/dewpoints to drop more easily on the NE flow...if a stubborn drizzle or light rain hangs in there all day it may delay the cooling somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The Canadian black and white maps have been stuck on hr 60 for about 20 minutes now. Is anyone else getting that? It looks pretty similar to last night's run at that point and maybe a hair south of its 12z run. It's out to 84 and it appears to be less of a hit on the first wave for NC...though still there to some degree. It looks poised for the second round at 84 with precip over the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 At 96 GGEM has a coastal off HAT with lots of precip over NC...850s look too warm for snow except maybe Charlotte to the Triad and points west, but the heaviest precip is to the east of that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Must be my cache because now I see hr 96 and it's going boom (second wave?). Lots of precip. Not sure on P-type on the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I see hr84 of the CMC and it appears like its going to be a huge hit in GA. By 6z WED the 2m 0c line is ATL-AHN-AGS and holds there for 24hr. Verbatim this run has MCN at 35 degrees. Looks like the same amount of QPF as the gfs has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Believe it or not a big wildcard could be getting a window of clearing, or at least precip stopping Tuesday during the afternoon, this may enable temps/dewpoints to drop more easily on the NE flow...if a stubborn drizzle or light rain hangs in there all day it may delay the cooling somewhat. I could see that as well. I will say, looking at temps on where this high is located it looks at or below zero at 2m in many spots. We have a pure NE fetch from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Larry, I am thinking the NAM (still out to lunch but interesting hr84 look) and now the GFS trying to trend toward euro, with colder 850's but warmer 2m temps (think overdone and will be colder) I think mid GA could be in for a nasty ZR event with NGA..Any thoughts? wisdom? What NE GA said makes sense and I think this 0Z GFS run only increases the chance that much of middle GA will get a nasty a ZR on Wed since it has caved to the Euro and company. Go get your bread and milk now just in case before they run out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Must be my cache because now I see hr 96 and it's going boom (second wave?). Lots of precip. Not sure on P-type on the Canadian.looks a little less on the first wave but it now as wave two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 looks a little less on the first wave but it now as wave two. Yep, at hr 108 it's still going. There's a decent amount of precip and it appears cold air is wrapping in. Wow. I don't know what to think anymore. I have no answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yep, at hr 108 it's still going. Lots of precip and it appears cold air is wrapping in. Wow. I don't know what to think anymore. I have no answers. How far back does it throw the precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 So, for the record the 00z UKMET,CMC, and NAVGEM are all turning the 2nd wave into a precip bomb with perfect CAD in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 1-1.6" of precip across swath from central GA, NE into central S.C. and then SE N.C. in 12 hour period at 96 hours on 0z CMC. 850s +0 for all of that, but certainly possible surface temps are at or below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Canadian run is a more balanced solution with a significant overrunning event but a just as (more more) significant coastal low delivering more frozen precip to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 How far back does it throw the precip? Looks like some gets out your way, but you're on the edge. Not sure about QPF, but it's probably not too much. Of course, I'd imagine P-type would be more likely to be SN out your way. I'm sure we'll see better maps soon. EDIT: I don't know, you might be good for a few inches with the overrunning and coastal (assuming temperatures are okay) combined and it wouldn't take much to get you more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looks like some gets out your way, but you're on the edge. Not sure about QPF, but it's probably not too much. Of course, I'd imagine P-type would be more likely to be SN out your way. I'm sure we'll see better maps soon. Appreciate it, I'm to the point now I don't even know why I'm waiting on the runs. I look to be out of the game as of now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just from experience with past situations like this. The two waves aren't too dissimilar. What is likely to happen, is a weak slp will develop with the lead wave in the deep south.The second s/w will then come in behind and renergize the coastal low. This not a phase of streams, but more of a phase of s/w's that induce a strengthening slp. This setup favors a combo of overruning induced precip and dynamical induced precip with the actual slp complex. In general, climo wise, i see this more as a snow/sleet situation, instead of freezing rain. However, there's plenty of time for that to change as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What NE GA said makes sense and I think this 0Z GFS run only increases the chance that much of middle GA will get a nasty a ZR on Wed since it has caved to the Euro and company. Go get your bread and milk now just in case before they run out . Might have too. LOL As I expect, and you and others, the GFS is quite a bit colder at 2m in GA by 00z Wed (Tue pm) its around 34-36 here, but at or below freezing up there verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The cmc is still a decent hit for NC w/ the first wave. No complaints. Edit: I'd say for the RDU area the 1st wave brings 1 to 1.5 inches of snow and the 2nd wave is a major ice storm for the area according to the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looks like some gets out your way, but you're on the edge. Not sure about QPF, but it's probably not too much. Of course, I'd imagine P-type would be more likely to be SN out your way. I'm sure we'll see better maps soon. EDIT: I don't know, you might be good for a few inches with the overrunning and coastal (assuming temperatures are okay) combined and it wouldn't take much to get you more. The GEFS looks like the CMC and they both are Euro'ish. Will see in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just from experience with past situations like this. The two waves aren't too dissimilar. What is likely to happen, is a weak slp will develop with the lead wave in the deep south.The second s/w will then come in behind and renergize the coastal low. This not a phase of streams, but more of a phase of s/w's that induce a strengthening slp. This setup favors a combo of overruning induced precip and dynamical induced precip with the actual slp complex. In general, climo wise, i see this more as a snow/sleet situation, instead of freezing rain. However, there's plenty of time for that to change as well. That's essentially what the Euro is doing, where the brunt of the NC snow comes from the initial overrunning event but the s/w comes in so closely that it energizes the initial low and brings it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well, based on 850s, the I-85 corridor from CLT to GSO stays all-snow with the second wave. All combined, you're probably looking at 5"+ with the overrunning, as well. Not bad............ The Canadian is a decent hit for the whole state, really. You're looking at 2"+ for the vast majority of the state, IMO. The CLT area looks like the jackpot, as before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'd have zero doubt looking at the 00Z UKMET and 00Z GFS that everything after 00-03Z Tue eve into Wed is ZR or IP in your area up through ATL...I'm becoming increasingly confident everything from maybe 30-50 miles north of ATL on southward before 00Z Tue evening will be all rain however....I was doubtful about the 06z-18z window Tuesday for awhile but to me the wedge simply does not get in place in time to save the first wave except for far NRN GA.Snowgoose Tuesday looks like a real toughie to me at two meters! The Euro, which is often at least several degrees too warm there, has ~36-7 at ATL-AHN and wedging getting going in the morning with brisk NE winds really bringing in that air from the NE. I see much of PA is below zero then for lows and I know the snowpack up there is pretty impressive. With steady precip. then and 850's at a mere 1-2 C, it is hard for me to believe that temp.s in ATL-AHN wouldn't drop to 32 by around noon at the latest if the wedge comes in like the 12Z Euro has along with steady precip. However, the Euro keeps it at ~33-35 as of 1 PM. When considering the Euro's warm bias at two meters when there's good wedging and steady precip., I really think the Euro would be too warm by several degrees assuming its wedge strength would verify, thus making it quite possible ATL-AHN would be down to 32 or lower by 18Z. Yet, you don't think they 'll reach 32 til 7 PM, similar to what the Euro has verbatim . Thoughts? Edit: If the +1 to +2 C 850's along with wedging and steady precip. of the Euro were to verify, I 'd expect an accumulating sleetstorm and temp.'s to fall into the middle 20's before the sleet ends Tuesday evening. This is largely based on my study of old wx maps' 850's for times of IP, including the great 2/1979 and 1/1988 4" IP's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Larry, it appears that the CMC is a massive ZR or IP storm for GA. 2m Temps, from weather bell, look pretty dang cold as all of mid and NGA go below freezing by 0-6z Wed right as that 2nd mass of moisture comes in. Lines up very well with EURO And now the GFS (verbatim its the coldest at 2m of the 3) Edit: CMC has about 1-1.30" QPF around here and up to ATL-AHN in that time frame...WOW and almost 2" total qpf for both events around MCN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Man... Things are getting really interesting. As GaWx & Delta have talked about... I too think the 2m temps are too warm for most of Georgia, including over here in Columbus. The more I look at things, the more things look really icy for the CAD regions Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. I mean, the GFS has us in the mid-upper 30s in Columbus, but a stronger CAD will send temperatures down. It's going to be fun the next couple of days. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Per 00Z GFS looks like KRDU is ZR & Snow (seems GFS wants to keep it switching back and forth) with most of the QPF coming from the 2nd low Wednesday night & Thursday. Almost looks like the GFS it can't make up it mind about precipitation for here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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