NGA WINTER Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 EURO has been very consistent. The GFS has not. Changes the gfs has made, has no effect on what the euro puts out. Unless gfs is seeing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 EURO has been very consistent. The GFS has not. Yes. But this first wave deal is in flux on a few other models and it will be interesting to see what the 0z euro does with it qpf wise now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Nobody uses the 540 line anymore because it's very crude. Agreed. Its okay to "glance at" and feel more comfy with a snow deal.. but there are so many variables in this storm with the WAA etc that the 540 line is pointless. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looks cold enough this way but dry. Closed off at 500 with a defined 700mb low and still dry. Hope America does better in the Olympics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yes. But this first wave deal is in flux on a few other models and it will be interesting to see what the 0z euro does with it qpf wise now Ya it will be interesting. Lots of back and fourth right know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Decent Dewpoint depression though Yeah it's possible but it's close and you'd need some good precip rates out of it. I'd rather hope we can pop back to amping up the initial wave. Outside of the Euro, trusting the second wave to deliver isn't looking good per the 0z runs so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hang tight..., Bastardi has been calling out problems with the ECMWF all week. We'll see and hope for best although the warmer 2nd storm trend with the high sliding out may indeed be the real deal. Bastardi also said the cold wave would equal the financial hit of a major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The 0Z GFS actually looks to me like it is caving in the direction of the 12Z Euro/CMC/UK/JMA and certainly not in the direction of the seemingly out to lunch NAM. This is especially the case when considering it finally has a juicier and further north 2nd wave. Also, this is closer to the 18Z GEFS. The 2nd wave looks like a significant ZR producer in SC/GA as has been the case on the aforementioned 12Z models and earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Essentially all the precip from this panel would be freezing rain from say FLO and points north, or there a bouts. May not be snow but that much ice is a big deal and would be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 With all the bitching, whining and complaining nobody has noticed the GFS has seriously gone up with the QPF at least in the CLT region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hmmmmm...Tonight I see the NAM really loosing the strength of the first wave, and moving that further South. (which is supported by every other model) plus that mass in the NE gom heading NE while the CAD is super building into GA. That could be something to watch very carefully. The GFS is sure trying. looks to warm at 2m for most of GA, but I have a feeling that its likely to warm at 2m and will be colder. I think the overall synoptic trends are great. NAM still out to lunch, but trying to come back and the GFS is trying to wake up. Dr. NO will be super interesting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 With all the bitching, whining and complaining nobody has noticed the GFS has seriously gone up with the QPF at least in the CLT region. Ice/ZR/Snow/Rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 With all the bitching, whining and complaining nobody has noticed the GFS has seriously gone up with the QPF at least in the CLT region.Not really. The totals are still low (~.1") and over the course of more than 12 hours, which means that the precip will be spotty and light and probably virga a lot of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ice/ZR/Snow/Rain? I don't think we ever see plain rain inCharlotte. In fact, i would be surprised to see significant ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The 0Z GFS actually looks to me like it is caving in the direction of the 12Z Euro/CMC/UK/JMA and certainly not in the direction of the seemingly out to lunch NAM. This is especially the case when considering it finally has a juicier and further north 2nd wave. Also, this is closer to the 18Z GEFS. The 2nd wave looks like a significant ZR producer in SC/GA as has been the case on the aforementioned 12Z models and earlier runs. I fully agree Larry!! I think the GFS is on the verge of a MAJOR ice event with that 2nd wave in our state. 850's are 4-5 here in mid GA for first and 2nd wave and 1-3c over NGA. 2m are warm, but somewhat ignoring them, (think that they are likely to warm)?? I think the trends are on the way up for a significant icing event over GA. The wedge is in a great spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lots if ice for RDU with 2nd wave . Keep in mind to 1 degree resolution so prob significantly underestimating wedge. With that said still different than other solutions so trust at your own risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lots if ice for RDU with 2nd wave . Keep in mind to 1 degree resolution so prob significantly underestimating wedge. With that said still different than other solutions so trust at your own risk I have a real tough time believing we have ice with a coastal low. Either it's snow or it's rain, and, given the high moving out, I say most likely rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0z CMC at 60 hours, has a clear shift south in the precip field - also a touch slower -- all this compared to 12z CMC at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ok, so what does all this mean for us georgia folks? With this GFS run closer to the non-NAM consensus (including Euro), it tells me that the ATL-AHN area per that consensus will from the first wave quite possibly get cold rain Mon night changing to mainly IP Tuesday, which could accumulate similarly to what it did in 1979/1988. If not IP, it would likely mean a significant ZR on Tue. After a lightening or temporary stoppage of the precip. Tuesday evening, the 2nd wave would quite possibly bring ATL-AHN a sig. ZR . If both waves produce sig . ZR, you'd be looking at a major ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I have a real tough time believing we have ice with a coastal low. Either it's snow or it's rain, and, given the high moving out, I say most likely rain. We have had ice plenty of times with coastal lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The 0Z GFS actually looks to me like it is caving in the direction of the 12Z Euro/CMC/UK/JMA and certainly not in the direction of the seemingly out to lunch NAM. This is especially the case when considering it finally has a juicier and further north 2nd wave. Also, this is closer to the 18Z GEFS. The 2nd wave looks like a significant ZR producer in SC/GA as has been the case on the aforementioned 12Z models and earlier runs. Looked to me like the GFS actually dropped an inch or so of snow over the North Atlanta burbs from 57-63. Am I reading that right? There will be lots of tension in the air as the Euro rolls out tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It will be interesting to see if the HPC sticks with the EURO/UKMET/Canadian mix for the 0z cycle. Looks like the NAM has fallen closer in line with those three. Hopefully GFS is still an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just as I thought, and Larry mentioned this as well. That precip mass is moving NE at hour 84 on the NAM (again I still think the nam is on crack with that first wave and don't its solutions yet) but that precip is moving into mid ga while the 2m 0c line is about right on top of us moving SW. I Think that is going to be VERY interesting to watch...it has a PERFECT path of 10m winds out of NE and perfect postion for the wedge with that. Somewhat what the euro is showing and now the GFS trying to show. If that wind fetch is that strong, 2m temps are very likely to be to warm on models..thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 With this GFS run closer to the non-NAM consensus (including Euro), it tells me that the ATL-AHN area per that consensus will from the first wave quite possibly get cold rain Mon night changing to mainly IP Tuesday, which could accumulate similarly to what it did in 1979/1988. If not IP, it would likely mean a significant ZR on Tue. After a lightening or temporary stoppage of the precip. Tuesday evening, the 2nd wave would quite possibly bring ATL-AHN a sig. ZR . If both waves produce sig . ZR, you'd be looking at a major ZR. Larry, I am thinking the NAM (still out to lunch but interesting hr84 look) and now the GFS trying to trend toward euro, with colder 850's but warmer 2m temps (think overdone and will be colder) I think mid GA could be in for a nasty ZR event with NGA..Any thoughts? wisdom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just as I thought, and Larry mentioned this as well. That precip mass is moving NE at hour 84 on the NAM (again I still think the nam is on crack with that first wave and don't its solutions yet) but that precip is moving into mid ga while the 2m 0c line is about right on top of us moving SW. I Think that is going to be VERY interesting to watch...it has a PERFECT path of 10m winds out of NE and perfect postion for the wedge with that. Somewhat what the euro is showing and now the GFS trying to show. If that wind fetch is that strong, 2m temps are very likely to be to warm on models..thoughts? speaking for ne ga, at least, if there is a decent ne wind coming in with the precip then that usually means the wedge is building in nicely, with fresh cold air. thats one of the things i look for to get snow, ip, or zr imby that will amount to something. will be interesting to see where the hp sets up - it appears that generally the models are putting it in a pretty prime spot to funnel that cold air on down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwisephotog Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Does anyone realize that the temps will more likely be colder due to the snowpack up north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I fully agree Larry!! I think the GFS is on the verge of a MAJOR ice event with that 2nd wave in our state. 850's are 4-5 here in mid GA for first and 2nd wave and 1-3c over NGA. 2m are warm, but somewhat ignoring them, (think that they are likely to warm)?? I think the trends are on the way up for a significant icing event over GA. The wedge is in a great spot I'd have zero doubt looking at the 00Z UKMET and 00Z GFS that everything after 00-03Z Tue eve into Wed is ZR or IP in your area up through ATL...I'm becoming increasingly confident everything from maybe 30-50 miles north of ATL on southward before 00Z Tue evening will be all rain however....I was doubtful about the 06z-18z window Tuesday for awhile but to me the wedge simply does not get in place in time to save the first wave except for far NRN GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looked to me like the GFS actually dropped an inch or so of snow over the North Atlanta burbs from 57-63. Am I reading that right? There will be lots of tension in the air as the Euro rolls out tonight. Justin, Nice observation. It sure is close on the 0Z GFS to dropping as much as ~1" of snow in the northern ATL burbs Tue AM at the start of the precip. with that 0C 850 line just about on top of you. The prior two GFS runs have been very close to this then and this looks even closer. However, with wedging just getting going, I wonder if it would be quite cold enough at the surface to stick? My provder's clown, which shows only 1"+ amounts, has snow a bit further north than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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