Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 3:50 AM, burgertime said: Ugh out to 75 just ugly for NC on the snow side compared to other models. Looks like GFS is gonna focus on that 2nd wave. Yeah either one or the other... LOL, watch the Euro pull an 18z NAM solution tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GFS might get crazy. That energy to the north just phased in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Moisture building in AL/MS/GA at hr 81 with the CAD still locked in. The HP is several hundred miles west of 18z. Pretty big changes from 18z. The GFS is dropping 1"+ rain in six hours in areas it had bone dry at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GFS looks awful to me. The cold air will be gone by the time whatever the third wave does happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 High slides away.. it's ice to rain. I'd much rather have the initial wave be juiced up and pull energy away from the southern s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 3:55 AM, Wow said: High slides away.. it's ice. Sleetfest around us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looks cold enough in the northwestern Piedmont and northern foothills for snow at the start with that second event. If that's even real. I'm not sure if it's believable considering how big of a change this is from prior runs. EDIT: Over to IP/ZR by hr 99, though the northern foothills appear to be snow. QPF is rather light. 2m temperatures are <0C from roughly Raleigh to Augusta. I'm tempted to toss this run just based on it being so different from past runs, but we'll see what the other modeling suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well some weak HP does wrap around it and pull the 850 line back in to W NC... hmm. GFS still quite confused with the development of the low pressure. There's a lot of pockets of energy moving through rather quickly. It all depends on which pieces amplify and phase with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 3:55 AM, Wow said: High slides away.. it's ice to rain. I'd much rather have the initial wave be juiced up and pull energy away from the southern s/w.Yeah, that was the only reason this was going to be a storm at all. Otherwise, it was just going to be dry CAD followed by rain. That's been the story for days. But everyone kept getting excited about that 2nd s/w. Well, now y'all got it, and it means light snow/sleet followed by rain. Happy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 @105 snow in WNC...this is a wild run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0Z Canadian out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 3:58 AM, WidreMann said: Yeah, that was the only reason this was going to be a storm at all. Otherwise, it was just going to be dry CAD followed by rain. That's been the story for days. But everyone kept getting excited about that 2nd s/w. Well, now y'all got it, and it means light snow/sleet followed by rain. Happy? Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 3:59 AM, burgertime said: @105 snow in WNC...this is a wild run. Yeah, cad locked in, huge ice storm, vort goes negative and closed off at 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 3:59 AM, burgertime said: @105 snow in WNC...this is a wild run. Mid level temps too warm by then.. it's all ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hard to see the euro holding serve at 0z with these changes. See a potential cave coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The GFS individuals ought to be real interesting tonight. You'll be able to see it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Charlotte has two layers above freezing in the atmosphere. One is .5 and one is .4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Even with the wonky GFS run which I don't buy for a minute CLT still gets 2-4 due to that second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Big snow to Ice, just what the doc been serving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 4:01 AM, Wow said: Mid level temps too warm by then.. it's all ice. If the over-running on the first wave wasn't so weak and south the 2nd wave almost matches up with the Euro, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 4:02 AM, burgertime said: Even with the wonky GFS run which I don't buy for a minute CLT still gets 2-4 due to that second wave. It's way too warm for snow with that second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 4:01 AM, Wow said: Mid level temps too warm by then.. it's all ice. 540 line is down there though. Isn't that usually indicative of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 4:01 AM, CaryWx said: Hard to see the euro holding serve at 0z with these changes. See a potential cave coming EURO has been very consistent. The GFS has not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hang tight..., Bastardi has been calling out problems with the ECMWF all week. We'll see and hope for best although the warmer 2nd storm trend with the high sliding out may indeed be the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 4:01 AM, CaryWx said: Hard to see the euro holding serve at 0z with these changes. See a potential cave coming Cave to what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 4:03 AM, burgertime said: 540 line is down there though. Isn't that usually indicative of snow? About +1.6C at 900mb for me at 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Essentially all the precip from this panel would be freezing rain from say FLO and points north, or there a bouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I do like to see Goofy agree in the end. It's been good about totals in my yard. If it's saying no while the Doc says yes later, tomorrow will be real curious. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 4:03 AM, burgertime said: 540 line is down there though. Isn't that usually indicative of snow?Nobody uses the 540 line anymore because it's very crude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 4:05 AM, Wow said: About +1.6C at 900mb for me at 105 Decent Dewpoint depression though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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