Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not sure what that is, here is the NAM, actually your looking at a lower resolution NAM (32km), look at the 12km Gotcha, I'll gladly take my .75 and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 A more reasonable solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 A more reasonable solution And more inline with GEFS and Euro/EuroEns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I will also take mine just a little south of you. Here is the accu total for the 00Z run . Still keeps the same idea on the same track. Gotcha, I'll gladly take my .75 and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yes you are correct. A more reasonable solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The 84 hour image shows lots of precipitation building in the northern gulf. Perhaps round two? Yeah that's interesting.. that's what models were keying on originally as our big event.. could pull up if it phases, but probably not a snow event then as the High slides off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I will also take mine just a little south of you. Here is the accu total for the 00Z run . Still keeps the same idea on the same track.That's the key thing. "Keeps the same idea on the same track." Being consistent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Big winner to add to the fun that 00z NAM run was North MS with 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 No doubt man. We have a time period, now need to hone in on a good track. Then snow totals. I will also take mine just a little south of you. Here is the accu total for the 00Z run . Still keeps the same idea on the same track.That's the key thing. "Keeps the same idea on the same track." Being consistent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Out and about right now but it appears nam is slowly coking back to earth with first wave. Looks weaker? Less snow and qpf and a but further South. How is it looking 2m wise in ga Larry? Lookout? I see that there is moisture pooling at hr84? Which way is that going? Thanks y'all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The 84 hour image shows lots of precipitation building in the northern gulf. Perhaps round two? Yeah, the NAM is starting to get a clue about wave #2 (in agreement with the model consensus of many runs in a row) although it is further south with wave #2. Anyhow, I still think the NAM is out to lunch with wave #1 with the precip. coming in so fast and before much wedging gets established unlike the non-GFS model consensus for several runs in a row. I expect the NAM to move toward the Euro and company by Monday. I'd be quite surprised if it ends up verifying the closest with either wave #1 or #2 as it is a not so good model mainly on its own (although the 18Z RGEM may have been similar). We'll see. Strange things do happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Out and about right now but it appears nam is slowly coking back to earth with first wave. Looks weaker? Less snow and qpf and a but further South. How is it looking 2m wise in ga Larry? Lookout? I see that there is moisture pooling at hr84? Which way is that going? Thanks y'all Its hard to extrapolate the 84 hour nam but looking at H5 and H7 trough axis eventually ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 One thing about the NAM is it seems to keep the sleet at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0z nam looks like it brings a ton of precip going from rain to snow it appears to me in extreme north Georgia. Atlanta is perilously close to getting in on the action. 2m temps don't look good for GA though. Marietta/Deltadog, Due to a lack of good wedging getting established in time for much of the precip. due to the precip. coming in more quickly than the model consensus, it looks to me like Atlanta would likely get relatively little wintry precip. from this 1st wave as modeled on the 0Z NAM based on 850/925 mb temp.'s. I don't have the two meter temp.'s. Also, it looks like the 2nd wave's precip. would likely stay south of ATL if this were extrapolated. meaning not much wintry precip. from the two waves. Keep in mind that the NAM is mainly on its own in these regards, and it isn't all that good of a model that far out in time. Also, it tends to overdo qpf. Therefore, I expect it to change quite a bit over the next 1-2 days. I do see one fairly sig. change vs. the 18Z NAM: the 2nd wave is much more pronounced at 78 vs. 84 on the 18Z, which is starting to look closer to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This might be getting ugly for the midlands of SC fast... wow @ the ZR threat (regardless of what is said about being "too warm".) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NAM looks more reasonable with it lowering the QPF amounts this run given that everything is rather weak with this initial wave. 500mb wave amplitude and vort max are weak. 850mb low really doesn't get its act together until it reaches N GA / E TN on this run then it translates E / ESE across N SC into SE NC. You need to see a solid closed 850mb low with a stout southerly / southeasterly fetch to get heavy overrunning snow. To me, this looks more like a light to moderate snow for areas in NC that stay cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 One thing about the NAM is it seems to keep the sleet at bay. Yeah, plenty of deep cold air. Looking at the 500mb vorticity maps, it's a big mess. The initial overrunning wave was a bit more disorganized with its energy to attract the polar s/w to phase with it to generate the monster snow outputs the 12z and 18z had. Because of this, the s/w back over the west has room to amplify. This is still a tricky setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This might be getting ugly for the midlands of SC fast... wow @ the ZR threat (regardless of what is said about being "too warm".)You can't get zr with a temp of 34 or 35. If this comes in Monday afternoon , I'd be willing to bet temps are in the low 40s NGa- upstate and around 50 in CAE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0z RGEM at 48 hours looks pretty similar to 12z GGEM at 60 hours -- 0z RGEM has slightly stronger HP (1038) and hence is bit colder in NC/SC but precip field similar (at least on b/w maps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Finally...I feel we have a BONAFIDE winter system to work with. So.ething we have not seen in years. I feel we are now moving to the process of trying to determine of this will be 3-4" or one for the record books, where we reach 12+ x in a lot of areas. Lastly, we have the 2nd wave to contend with, which is totally uncertain. Last but not least...if this probable winter storm has any changes in store for the areas showing major snow, then it will be more of a MIXED BAG variety and we will have to worry more about the IP/zr issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Anyone mention the 12z Euro ensembles for RDU et all? Wow they are simply incredible. I've never seen more 9" or more members on the ensembles this far south, ever. This is the kind of stuff you see up north. I count 21 or so of the 51 members with 8-9" Only 2 members with less than 2" For this storm, the mean is close to 7" Sorry if it's been mentioned already before, I've been gone all day, just had to mention it. Edit: didn't even look at CLT...holy moly, even better. mean is 8"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 00Z looks like it's going to be more in line with the other models this run. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Anyone mention the 12z Euro ensembles for RDU et all? Wow they are simply incredible. I've never seen more 9" or more members on the ensembles this far south, ever. This is the kind of stuff you see up north. I count 21 or so of the 51 members with 8-9" Only 2 members with less than 2" For this storm, the mean is close to 7" Sorry if it's been mentioned already before, I've been gone all day, just had to mention it. Yeah, I posted some totals for various cities across the state earlier. They were pretty incredible. You were basically looking at 6-9" for much of the state and into upstate SC. Roughly half of the members showed 9"+ here and quite a bit more were in the 6-9" range for a mean of 8.25". It was pretty incredible and the best EPS run yet for any of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 You can't get zr with a temp of 34 or 35. If this comes in Monday afternoon , I'd be willing to bet temps are in the low 40s NGa- upstate and around 50 in CAE Uhm?.. ... Okay. Tell that to 51/51 Euro members.. The Euro will win out this time (as always) along with the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 No precip into NC thru 60.. all south. Prob going to key more on the southern s/w. That's the fad for the 0z model suites tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This is gonna turn into something. That energy south is stronger and booking it into the east with energy ahead of it up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This is gonna turn into something. That energy south is stronger and booking it into the east with energy ahead of it up north. let me take a stab and say that eastern NC gets crushed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Uhm?.. ... Okay. Tell that to 51/51 Euro members.. The Euro will win out this time (as always) along with the EPS. Shawn, Mack was saying if it comes in Monday afternoon, when it wouldn't be as cold. The EPS and Euro op. don't bring in the bulk of it til Tuesday, when it is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Shawn, Mack was saying if it comes in Monday afternoon, when it wouldn't be as cold. The EPS and Euro op. don't bring in the bulk of it til Tuesday, when it is colder. Yeah I know. I dont think itll be quite that fast though. Sorry Mack & Larry. <3 I think the higher res/better initilization of the euro will end up doing better at timing here. The Euro + NAM (as michelle says alot) blend.. works well through here. I still think even with a faster NAM (possibly even w/ the overruning) and then a slower Euro compared.. a middle of the road would bring it around midnight Monday night/Tues morning or a bit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ugh out to 75 just ugly for NC on the snow side compared to other models. Looks like GFS is gonna focus on that 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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