superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The 12z Euro Ensembles seem to have come in colder and wetter! Totals are up across the board for SC and NC. New totals for the EPS mean as of the 12z run: GSO: 7.75" AVL: 7.75" CLT: 8.25" HKY: 7.25" RDU: 6.75" PGV: 4" MWK: 6" GSP: 8.25" DAN: 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 In case you all didn't see the obnoxious banner: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42782-radio-show-thread/ stormtracker...Would you mind posting this in the TN Valley subforum as well. Much appreciated. Feel free to drop this in banter, Buckeye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 In case you all didn't see the obnoxious banner: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42782-radio-show-thread/ Hmmm...I should call in, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The 12z Euro Ensembles seem to have come in colder and wetter! Totals are up across the board for SC and NC. New totals for the EPS mean as of the 12z run: GSO: 7.75" AVL: 7.75" CLT: 8.25" HKY: 7.25" RDU: 6.75" PGV: 4" MWK: 6" GSP: 8.25" DAN: 7" Do you happen to have the 0z totals to compare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Do you happen to have the 0z totals to compare? Not right off hand, but I think the totals for most cities on that list went up by an inch or two from the 00z EPS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Robert thinks the Baffin High will stay in place and make this a fairly long lasting event. IMO the pure snow line will run from Lexington NC up to the Va. border. From Lex (NC)to Charlotte look for primarily snow with a change to sleet.zr late, and for uplands of SC sn to sleet to zr. Raleigh should see a good thump of sn followed by some sleet and zr and this is all from the first batch. 2nd batch is much weaker with mainly light zr across the SC uplands and into NC. My guess for snow totals would be: GSO/INT-6.5" CLT-4.5" RDU-4"+ GSP=5" Atl=1" and zr Mcn= lt. zr HKY-=6" CAE=zr>rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Robert thinks the Baffin High will stay in place and make this a fairly long lasting event. IMO the pure snow line will run from Lexington NC up to the Va. border. From Lex (NC)to Charlotte look for primarily snow with a change to sleet.zr late, and for uplands of SC sn to sleet to zr. Raleigh should see a good thump of sn followed by some sleet and zr and this is all from the first batch. 2nd batch is much weaker with mainly light zr across the SC uplands and into NC. My guess for snow totals would be: GSO/INT-6.5" CLT-4.5" RDU-4"+ GSP=5" Atl=1" and zr Mcn= lt. zr HKY-=6" CAE=zr>rn Probably more realistic totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeze Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Is this a guess or do you have information to back up your comments? Robert thinks the Baffin High will stay in place and make this a fairly long lasting event. IMO the pure snow line will run from Lexington NC up to the Va. border. From Lex (NC)to Charlotte look for primarily snow with a change to sleet.zr late, and for uplands of SC sn to sleet to zr. Raleigh should see a good thump of sn followed by some sleet and zr and this is all from the first batch. 2nd batch is much weaker with mainly light zr across the SC uplands and into NC. My guess for snow totals would be: GSO/INT-6.5" CLT-4.5" RDU-4"+ GSP=5" Atl=1" and zr Mcn= lt. zr HKY-=6" CAE=zr>rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 New sref mean even wetter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 New sref mean even wetter! Coming around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epps88 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The 12z Euro Ensembles seem to have come in colder and wetter! Totals are up across the board for SC and NC. New totals for the EPS mean as of the 12z run: GSO: 7.75" AVL: 7.75" CLT: 8.25" HKY: 7.25" RDU: 6.75" PGV: 4" MWK: 6" GSP: 8.25" DAN: 7" Does the DAN stand for Danville va? If not, what is danvilles EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Epps88, on 08 Feb 2014 - 8:12 PM, said:Does the DAN stand for Danville va? If not, what is danvilles EPS? Yes, it's Danville. (KDAN) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 SREF precip mean is wetter as more members agree with high QPF across NC... fewer members with little or no precip. Coming together folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That is a very odd looking WSW in Alabama.??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That is a very odd looking WSW in Alabama.??? NWS Birmingham threw out Winter Storm Watches, but Huntsville has not, hence the odd look since the northern counties are in Huntsville's forecasting domain. They'll probably all be in a WSW soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Is this a guess or do you have information to back up your comments? Well, as I said it is a guess but based on the comments Robert made and the general history of storms like this over the years. Very seldom does a storm not bring in warm air aloft which changes the precip to zr as the storm winds down, especially South and East of the snow axis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Either the color on my computer is messed up or else it looks at though they are expecting the bulk to be more to the south. Is that what I'm seeing (Sorry, I'm on my 2nd mojito. Happy bday to me!). lolThat's just the WPC probabilities from earlier today, probably biased by the 00z Euro and 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Special weather statement in north ga stating that major winter storm will affect north Georgia. Wsw and warning will likely be issued. Getting excited and ready for 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freeze Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well, as I said it is a guess but based on the comments Robert made and the general history of storms like this over the years. Very seldom does a storm not bring in warm air aloft which changes the precip to zr as the storm winds down, especially South and East of the snow axisOk so you are just guessing. Nothing wrong with that. I appreciate your response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hey guys since Jan 1988 has been tossed around a lot, I thought I woudl repost my case study on it http://www.americanwx.com/models/raleighwx/studies/Jan1988.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Nobody concerned about temps at all? We just don't do well with caa, right after a front. If front comes through Sunday afternoon, the precip could arrive as soon as midnight mon night/ tues morning. The last event started about 5 or 6 degrees warmer than forecast ! I think it bares watching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The full SWS from FFC: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA754 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>050-052>055-057-091300-DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-HENRY-754 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014...LIKELIHOOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERNGEORGIA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES MONDAYINTO TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION ISPOSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA.AT THIS TIME...THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FORACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHATTOOGAVILLE TOWALESKA TO CLEVELAND. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AWINTRY MIX.THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. EVEN ASMALL CHANGE IN THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK COULD GREATLY IMPACT THEAMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS...AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATIONTHAT FALLS. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR DETERMINISTIC SNOWFALL OR ICEAMOUNTS...HOWEVER THESE FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR SUNDAYINTO EARLY MONDAY. WINTER STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDEDWITH LATER FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The full SWS from FFC: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA754 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>050-052>055-057-091300-DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-HENRY-754 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014...LIKELIHOOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERNGEORGIA FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF STATES MONDAYINTO TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION ISPOSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA.AT THIS TIME...THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FORACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHATTOOGAVILLE TOWALESKA TO CLEVELAND. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AWINTRY MIX.THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM. EVEN ASMALL CHANGE IN THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK COULD GREATLY IMPACT THEAMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS...AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATIONTHAT FALLS. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR DETERMINISTIC SNOWFALL OR ICEAMOUNTS...HOWEVER THESE FORECASTS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR SUNDAYINTO EARLY MONDAY. WINTER STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDEDWITH LATER FORECASTS. I don't see the word MAJOR anywhere??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 SREF plumes are out. Between 4-5 inches for NC areas: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140208&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=GSO&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=35.18700053505921&mLON=-79.4755140625&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looking at 21z SREF snow depth probabilities.. it really does look more like the NAM wrt NC snowfall coverage Probs of >8" of snow accum. within 24 hrs Same time for 15z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Nobody concerned about temps at all? We just don't do well with caa, right after a front. If front comes through Sunday afternoon, the precip could arrive as soon as midnight mon night/ tues morning. The last event started about 5 or 6 degrees warmer than forecast ! I think it bares watching! Thats when the so call NW trend kicks in. If the arctic air and front doesn't push far enough south. Then over running starts further north. Thats a real possibility though. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 KCAE... 12z Euro EPS members. ALL 51 members on board for Winter Weather here. Mean increased to over 6 inches and the OP is a foot. No, most of this is not snow. Keep the posts coming for our area, really appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NWS Birmingham threw out Winter Storm Watches, but Huntsville has not, hence the odd look since the northern counties are in Huntsville's forecasting domain. They'll probably all be in a WSW soon enough. BMX says it may need to be extended southward. Wonder if FFC will issue a watch also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 BMX says it may need to be extended southward. Wonder if FFC will issue a watch also. Special Weather Statement from this evening addressed this. http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ffc&wwa=special%20weather%20statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Nam out to 33. Looks pretty much like 18z. Touch slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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