Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This is one situation where I'm glad to be far enough west to not have to worry about power outages. I'll enjoy my 33 and rain while you folks east of here are without power for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM had GSO hitting down to 20 the last 6 hours of precip. Thoughts on if an who might do better than 10:1? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Man. Upstate SC gets hammered per Burger's snow map. Anyone got any more details on what Atlanta gets per this run? Looks like a little bit of everything as Lookout was alluding too. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain? Going to be a crazy couple of days on the board regardless. Looking at 12Z Euro 850's/qpf/sfc for N ATL burbs near you: - wave #1 TUE looks like ~1" qpf of starts as cold rain possibly changing to a short period of ZR and then IP for the bulk based on 850's of only +1 to +2 C (favors IP over ZR). Could mean as much as 3-4"+ IP if almost all IP! -wave #2 TUE night to early WED: ~0.20" of ZR on top of IP due to warmer 850's of ~+5 C If the 12Z Euro verifies, it would be blend of PD 1 of 79 and 1/88 for ATL-AHN. Euro Sfc temp.'s too warm. Theu'd probably do down to middle 20's for ATL-AHn if there is this much IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 wow euro is a nasty storm for raleigh. looking at the soundings, probably 4-5 inches of snow/sleet and then a half inch of freezing rain on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looking at 12Z Euro 850's/qpf/sfc for N ATL burbs near you: - wave #1 TUE looks like ~1" qpf of rain possibly changing to a short period of ZR and then IP for the bulk based on 850's of only +1 to +2 C (favors IP over ZR). Could mean as much as 3-4"+ IP if almost all IP! -wave #2 TUE night to early WED: ~0.20" of ZR on top of IP due to warmer 850's of ~+5 C If the 12Z Euro verifies, it would be blend of PD 1 of 79 and 1/88 for ATL-AHN. does tony get his sleet storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM had GSO hitting down to 20 the last 6 hours of precip. Thoughts on if an who might do better than 10:1? TW I doubt anyone will as that's the layer between 850 and 700. I think if you're getting heavy precip you're lucky to stay all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I know my area is going to be the battle ground, as always, but as we have all been talking about how its 2m temps are likely to high, I think we could be looking at a ZR fest down here...what you think? I think if things unfold like the euro has been showing for a while now, macon will get at least some freezing rain. If temps drop below freezing as far south as augusta (was even south of augusta on last nights run) it's hard not seeing it making it to macon, especially by the time the second round comes along. Plus the difference in surface temps between this mornings run and last nights is just noise level. The real question is though is the euro right or are the rest of the models too warm? Since the other models handle things differently than the euro, it's really hard to say..although you certainly can make the argument that the euro is the way to go because it's been so consistent. It looks colder than 35 to 38 on the euro maps I'm looking at for macon. I would have guess it was 33 or 34. Either way, if things go the way of the euro, the slightest changes will make all the difference obviously So it's really really close. I think if temps get to below 32, major accumulations will happen because even though 850mb temps warm to as high as 8c for macon, I can almost guarantee you the boundary layer will be very cold and based on soundings from the other models, pretty deep. So the rain will be very close to freezing solid by the time it makes it to the ground. That's why in some cases you don't get much freezing rain at 31 while other times you can get a lot. I'd hate to be trying to make the call for macon on tv lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM had GSO hitting down to 20 the last 6 hours of precip. Thoughts on if an who might do better than 10:1? TW Probably nobody. Not cold enough aloft. Heavy wet snow for those not getting sleet or freezing rain. Like mashed potatoes (stolen from the MA forum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAdawg Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 So are we looking at the first wave to come in over Monday night into Tuesday morning in the ATL area? If I have interpreted correctly it will begin as rain than change over? Man this has me concerned because FFC is really not stating anything about this except that they are currently watching and it could be an issue. If banter this can be moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looking at 12Z Euro 850's/qpf/sfc for N ATL burbs near you: - wave #1 TUE looks like ~1" qpf of starts as cold rain possibly changing to a short period of ZR and then IP for the bulk based on 850's of only +1 to +2 C (favors IP over ZR). Could mean as much as 3-4"+ IP if almost all IP! -wave #2 TUE night to early WED: ~0.20" of ZR on top of IP due to warmer 850's of ~+5 C If the 12Z Euro verifies, it would be blend of PD 1 of 79 and 1/88 for ATL-AHN. Euro Sfc temp.'s too warm. Theu'd probably do down to middle 20's for ATL-AHn if there is this much IP. And if it is that much colder in atlanta and athens, the freezing rain would most certainly make it into places like macon. It will be really interesting to see how well the euro performs on surface temps if these storm systems play out as advertised on the euro. I'm going to take notes on exactly where the euro has the freezing line and where it actually ends up. If people have access to the specific numbers, it would be great if they write them down for several locations and see how well it actually does. I've been really curious to see if it's warm bias in these situations still happen or if they have made some adjustments to the model to fix it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It shows us at 36 degrees from 00z Wed to 00z Thur taken verbatim from the euro. There is around 1.15" QPF that falls in that time, so if that is 30-32...holy moly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's 6-8" all the way past the NC/VA border, dude. Be happy! You misunderstood my post, I'm not complaining AT ALL, just stating where the heaviest axis of snow would likely be. I am very happy because so many in the SE will get something out of this and we were due for sure. Details are uncertain this far out anyway but the fact all models show this storm is the positive to take from today's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah Euro is solid snow to nasty ice for RDU. here was the CMC snow by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 does tony get his sleet storm ? Per 12Z Euro, Tony likely gets decent portion of wave #1 as IP. Potential of ~3" IP down there imo. Then changes to ZR on top and Zr for 2nd wave...maybe 0.5" ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I think if things unfold like the euro has been showing for a while now, macon will get at least some freezing rain. If temps drop below freezing as far south as augusta (was even south of augusta on last nights run) it's hard not seeing it making it to macon, especially by the time the second round comes along. Plus the difference in surface temps between this mornings run and last nights is just noise level. The real question is though is the euro right or are the rest of the models too warm? Since the other models handle things differently than the euro, it's really hard to say..although you certainly can make the argument that the euro is the way to go because it's been so consistent. It looks colder than 35 to 38 on the euro maps I'm looking at for macon. I would have guess it was 33 or 34. Either way, if things go the way of the euro, the slightest changes will make all the difference obviously So it's really really close. I think if temps get to below 32, major accumulations will happen because I can guarantee you the boundary layer will be very cold and based on soundings from the other models, pretty deep. So the rain will be very close to freezing solid by the time it makes it to the ground. That's why in some cases you don't get much freezing rain at 31 while other times you can get a lot. I'd hate to be trying to make the call for macon on tv lol Your telling me...hahahah Very difficult. Either way, I think if its 33-34, and that is prolly 3-4 degrees to warm, we are talking about 30-32 with a little over 1" of QPF. NOT good! wedges usually win out around our parts (much more your area obviously) so I have a feeling this one might really get to the point where it gets locally entrenched more due to that first wave further refrigerating the ground it could keep it in there longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah Euro is solid snow to nasty ice for RDU. here was the CMC snow by the way. Yeah.. that's more like it wrt the CMC snow totals. So we've got the NAM/Canadian with a juiced up front wave, the GFS super suppressed, and the Euro more balanced with the two waves, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looking at 12Z Euro 850's/qpf/sfc for N ATL burbs near you: - wave #1 TUE looks like ~1" qpf of starts as cold rain possibly changing to a short period of ZR and then IP for the bulk based on 850's of only +1 to +2 C (favors IP over ZR). Could mean as much as 3-4"+ IP if almost all IP! -wave #2 TUE night to early WED: ~0.20" of ZR on top of IP due to warmer 850's of ~+5 C If the 12Z Euro verifies, it would be blend of PD 1 of 79 and 1/88 for ATL-AHN. Euro Sfc temp.'s too warm. Theu'd probably do down to middle 20's for ATL-AHn if there is this much IP. Sounds like the late 70's, and 88 was great down here too.... but is no one the least bit worried that Goofy doesn't want to play? T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 FFC Update 000 FXUS62 KFFC 081859 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 159 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. ALL MODELS SHOW A VERY FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND AT THIS TIME THE MOIST LAYER IS CONFINED TO A REGION OF 3000 TO 5000 FEET. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE TO NORTH GA. CLOUDS...AND ANY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES SHOULD BE EXITING SUNDAY MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING MAKING FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL OVER THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE SHOULD BE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. 17 && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MONDAY NIGHT AS ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO AREA AND THERMAL PROFILES IN NORTH GEORGIA STILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. HAVE LEFT MAJORITY OF REMAINING LONG TERM PERIOD ALONE AS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS GREATLY DIVERGE IN UPPER WAVE EVOLUTIONS AND MOISTURE FIELDS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WINTRY PRECIP IN NORTHERN PORTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... BAKER Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Sounds like the late 70's, and 88 was great down here too.... but is no one the least bit worried that Goofy doesn't want to play? T The GFS will suddenly show up the party soon... it doesn't have any support. It's going to be the last kid picked for the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It shows us at 36 degrees from 00z Wed to 00z Thur taken verbatim from the euro. There is around 1.15" QPF that falls in that time, so if that is 30-32...holy moly How did you do in 88? I remember being out on the hill at midnight and getting soaked with lite rain while sledding, but it just waffled back and forth from ptype to ptype toward the end of the storm. The early part was all sleet and snow, which is how this one looks right now....if I'm thinking of the right storm Of course that 70 miles from me to you can be a long way as 73 showed Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro about the same as last night run here just shaved a little be more of qpf .57qpf which is cut in half from yesterday's 12z run. So maybe by Tuesday I'll have .25qpf left? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The GFS will suddenly show up the party soon... it doesn't have any support. It's going to be the last kid picked for the team. From your mouth to Goofy's ears, Wow! I just know the qpf from Goofy has been pretty good for me for the last several events. Much less that forecast by others, and I'd like to get the gfs coming to the party with more than a quarter inch, which has been the norm so far from these overrunning events. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 How did you do in 88? I remember being out on the hill at midnight and getting soaked with lite rain while sledding, but it just waffled back and forth from ptype to ptype toward the end of the storm. The early part was all sleet and snow, which is how this one looks right now....if I'm thinking of the right storm Of course that 70 miles from me to you can be a long way as 73 showed Tony have a date on that by chance so I can look it up please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 have a date on that by chance so I can look it up please. It was January 7-8, 1988. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/TechAttachments/ta2001-02.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 have a date on that by chance so I can look it up please. Jan 7th and 8th 1988 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Exciting times. If the NAM or NAM Euro blend could verify that would cripple this state. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=nam&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 wow euro is a nasty storm for raleigh. looking at the soundings, probably 4-5 inches of snow/sleet and then a half inch of freezing rain on top. Lets hope that part doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Lets hope that part doesn't happen. The combo would cause some huge power issues. I'm glad my apartment is not on the tree side of the complex haha. /: If this looks similar tomorrow night, i may have to head to the store to get some candles/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It was January 7-8, 1988. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/TechAttachments/ta2001-02.pdf oh sweet! thank you very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 fwiw wpc is obviously not siding with the gfs with their latest precip forecast. They show another 0.25 after this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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