NCSNOW Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It's basically identical to the 0z as far as precip totals for our area along 85. Definitely some 12" snow totals possible in this setup. Exciting times! Indeed. Long live the Euro as king once we get verification in 3 days. It owns the mid range and ability to sniff out southern stream energy correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yes long duration event as well. It's sleeting and light ZR even at hour 108 The worst freezing rain accumulations happen when it's not coming down in buckets and is drawn out over a longer period of time. This run would be a damaging ice storm for those who get the freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I see that it's an 85 special so I'm guessing you're referring to sw NC? Doesn't sound promising for N foothills and N mtns Hot off the presses. This is like hour 108 when the switch over to sleet/ZR is more prominent in NC. I would guess that snow showing up in GA and further south in SC would be ZR or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yes long duration event as well. It's sleeting and light ZR even at hour 108 Finally a day long event... man this really does resemble '88... With highest amts SW NC and fanning out NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Man, that's a big range of 6-8" all the way up into S VA! Impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 freezing surface temps make it to atlanta by hour 84 And euro is always too warm at the surface it may be freezing by 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This does look like a good hit for S. NC and N. SC but not as juicy for the Western third of NC, especially the further North you go. However, it is possible it could trend a tick North in the next day or so, how much is anybody's guess but seems to be the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I see that it's an 85 special so I'm guessing you're referring to sw NC? Doesn't sound promising for N foothills and N mtnsyes its a better run for the southern mtns compared to the northern mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The worst freezing rain accumulations happen when it's not coming down in buckets and is drawn out over a longer period of time. This run would be a damaging ice storm for those who get the freezing rain. Yep as you said central SC gets his hard with a ZR storm. My guess is an additional .50 falls in central SC between hours 96 and 108. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This does look like a good hit for S. NC and N. SC but not as juicy for the Western third of NC, especially the further North you go. It's 6-8" all the way past the NC/VA border, dude. Be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hot off the presses. This is like hour 108 when the switch over to sleet/ZR is more prominent in NC. I would guess that snow showing up in GA and further south in SC would be ZR or sleet. looks like almost nothing from Atlanta to Macon and points west. This is definitely looking like a northeast ga special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epps88 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Showing 6-8" for danville. Agrees with nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 new Euro has a great look and maintained the Baffin Ridge. That was and is the key to amping the southern system. Well great for TN and NC especially but would include northern tier of MS and AL initially, with probably heavier mixed types, then once into GA and the Carolinas the lifting is maximized because of damming and isentropic lift. It's a blend of NAM it appears, and this run pulls the southwest shortwave toward neutral tilt, not dropping into pos. tilt fashion, while keeping a strong damming high. By 96 hour the damage is done, and the low is on the FL panhandle..amazing consistency on the ECMWF with this surface feature damming high and the surface low..but keep in mind the moisture will be gone for most of us by 96 hours probably...that that would be freezing with that damming down toward central GA I think, well past Atlanta if this run is right. It hits upstate hard for once, they may be ground zero, but a mixed bag there I think, snow to start then mixing . All snow near I-40 probably in NC and west of RDU, but overall a good Winter storm for many. Then it goes up the coast, but odd to see so little cold advection behind it. The moissture falls and snow and ice for many on the front end, but I'm thinking freezing rain and freezing drizzle on the wrap around or last part of the event somewhere in the Carolinas, GA and VA. Hopefully this storm will be legit. I think NAM has led the way many times on southern events recently, its just this is the first one that is truly widespread Winter related. GFS is lost and supressed as usual. So there's good basic agreement aloft on GFS, GEM, ECMWF NAM but details mean a lot, like the location of the Baffin ridging and orientation of the incoming southwest wave, plus another wave to its north. Still not easy to forecast this, but it's getting within starting of 72 hours for most of TN and NC especially, so we don't have that much time to alert the public. I can see folks going back to work Monday morning and hearing of Winter Storm watches...."where did this come from". Anyway, hope you guys get your snow. It will be interesting to see if more than 1" snow falls here ..that hasn't happened in just over 3 years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 1.25-1.5" total qpf ATL-AHN from 2 waves (mainly 1st), much of which would be IP/ZR after initial rain. Euro 2 meter temp.'s too warm. Get down to MCN later in 1st wave and in 2nd wave for ~1.50" qpf total, rain and then mainly ZR down there imo. 1" of ZR there? So, Euro holds serve for GA at least. 8th run in a row with major winter storm for SE. Edit: another look at MCN's 850's and position of sfc low tells me it will be close to 32/sig. ZR but may stay just above for much of 2nd wave. +7 850's a little warm. If there 2m temps are to warm, which we both agree they prolly are, then yes, that could be 1" of QPF that is ZR Whats funny about that tho is, our 2m temps are colder the 2nd wave. I think euro's 850's are likely too high the 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yep as you said central SC gets his hard with a ZR storm. My guess is an additional .50 falls in central SC between hours 96 and 108. Crazy. Yep, altogether they get between 1.25 and 1.5 inch liquid it looks like. I'm really glad the euro held on. Was getting worried there for a while this morning lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Does anyone have access to soundings for the euro? I am interested to see if there is a warm layer above 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hot off the presses. This is like hour 108 when the switch over to sleet/ZR is more prominent in NC. I would guess that snow showing up in GA and further south in SC would be ZR or sleet. Burger - where do you get your ecmwf maps and how much is it per month? thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The EE rule rides again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Great write up Robert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Burger - where do you get your ecmwf maps and how much is it per month? thx Storm Vista. It's $30 a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Does anyone have access to soundings for the euro? I am interested to see if there is a warm layer above 850. PSC used to have soundings but that's no longer a option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX262 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Fantastic summary posted by Robert about our upcoming Winter Storm. Truly the best meteorologist out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 In terms of sensible weather, south carolina gets hit hard with freezing rain..especially central areas around columbia. Just about everything falls in north ga. Looks like 3 to 6 inches of snow/sleet in north ga outside the mountains followed by 0.30 to 0.50 of freezing rain. Looks like mostly snow, or snow/sleet in the extreme northern part of the upstate with several inches of snow in a lot of freezing rain for sc. hard to gauge how much since we can't see the entire column. It could end up being more sleet than freezing rain for a lot of areas. I know my area is going to be the battle ground, as always, but as we have all been talking about how its 2m temps are likely to high, I think we could be looking at a ZR fest down here...what you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 the snowfall map's are probably not that accurate. i'm sure there will a lot of sleet in this situation over sc and eastern NC. it's never a pure snow situation when the sfc low tracks as close to the coast as this one will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Man. Upstate SC gets hammered per Burger's snow map. Anyone got any more details on what Atlanta gets per this run? Looks like a little bit of everything as Lookout was alluding too. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain? Going to be a crazy couple of days on the board regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 well it goes without saying that if we wanted just one model to lock unto a solution and be rock steady with it .....it would be king euro. Man it has barely wavered at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) 2/8/14, 13:33 Why you won't see me get specific on snow totals so far out, we just don't have that kind of precision. Also if... fb.me/2EG04idZL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Man. Upstate SC gets hammered per Burger's snow map. Anyone got any more details on what Atlanta gets per this run? Looks like a little bit of everything as Lookout was alluding too. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain? Going to be a crazy couple of days on the board regardless. It's crazy to think we may experience all 4 major precip. types. Pray it's more snow/sleet than ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 And euro is always too warm at the surface it may be freezing by 12z And that SUPER concerns me cuz it has me at like 35-38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) 2/8/14, 13:33 Why you won't see me get specific on snow totals so far out, we just don't have that kind of precision. Also if... fb.me/2EG04idZL That graph is only from one storm and they didnt even mention the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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