packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I would guess GSP is 12" snow, but need more detailed maps to be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks warmer at 2m for us in GA. Looks like its a bit more amped with the first shortwave how much warmer. Where is the freezing line exactly.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z GEM is a nice NC thump with the lead wave Tuesday, when is a miss for areas near and N/W of I 85 with the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raine1212 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 MYB, newbie here from Evans Ga, 30809 zip, should i be prepared, i have small children and the ice worries me.. Please delete if i broke rules...sorry..TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks like CMC is all first wave, big hit for CLT and I-85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 James Paul Dice from FOX 6 Birmingham in House Model. Looks like heaviest band just north of I-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 From FFC this morning. An improvement in LT discussion over yesterday's at least. ".LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/.../ISSUED AT 410 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014/ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH DISCREPANCIES BETWEENTHE GFS AND ECMWF. WAVE COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.TEMPERATURES PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SNOW WITH THIS ACROSSACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT BRASSTOWNBALD IS SATURATED WHILE THE NAM IS MOSTLY DRY. TENDED TO LEANTOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION THAT IS WET AS OPPOSED TO THE NAM BUFRSINCE THE ECMWF IS ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THISTIME PERIOD. WITH THE ENTIRE PROFILE BELOW FREEZING...SUGGESTIVEOF SNOW AT BRASSTOWN BALD. NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS YOU MOVE FURTHERSOUTH...BUT APPEARS TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF NORTHGEORGIA AND TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EVEN PARTSOF NORTH GEORGIA. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD.HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...WITH A WEDGEBUILDING INTO THE CWA. EVEN WITH THE WEDGE BUILDING IN...GFSDIMINISHES THE PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE. WITHWEDGE IN PLACE...LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER POPS WITH CHANCE TOLIKELY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST ONWEDNESDAY AND AS IT PUSHES NORTHWARD...IT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGEAND CLEARS OUT PRECIP ON THURSDAY. THE GFS...HOWEVER IS SLOWER ANDTHUS HOLDS ONTO PRECIP INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GIVENINCONSISTENCIES AND THAT ITS ALMOST A WEEK AWAY...HAVE DECIDED TOTREND TOWARDS A BLEND." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GEM shows my 'concern' so to speak with the second wave. The Euro was very close to not amplifying the second wave enough to throw precip into the western Carolinas. GEM shows that scenario. Still though, at face value, it's a nice hit for NC Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks like CMC is all first wave, big hit for CLT and I-85 I would include up to RDU as well, from what I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I would include up to RDU as well, from what I can see. RDU looks to be right on the northern fringe of heaviest, south of I-40 looks to get crushed, need AmericanWx maps to update to be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NC is hammered per Candian GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GEFS ENS mean much wetter than Op, falls in line with CMC, just not as much precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 how much warmer. Where is the freezing line exactly.? It comes down briefly at like 6z thur to 12z thur then go back up and back down. BUT it looks much drier up that way vs 00z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GEM shows my 'concern' so to speak with the second wave. The Euro was very close to not amplifying the second wave enough to throw precip into the western Carolinas. GEM shows that scenario. Still though, at face value, it's a nice hit for NC Tuesday. I would agree with that Matt. That 2nd wave has been known (lately) to not play nice and get to be where its not coming up that far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 It comes down briefly at like 6z thur to 12z thur then go back up and back down. BUT it looks much drier up that way vs 00z run.. thursday? that sounds awful considering that is after the lead wave. sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah, the CMC is decent/great for NC, verbatim. Yes, the heaviest precip is south of I-40, but it still looks like a good hit all the way to the NC border. Luckily, I live a couple miles south of I-40, so I should be set! Haha.... It's a fairly long duration event, too (12+ hours, evidently). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GEM meteograms show 20MM of snow at RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The Canadian surface map is a classic NC snowstorm map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Will the euro hold, or are we in for surprises.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12Z CMC is warmer for GA at 2 meters and slightly warmer at 850 vs. 0Z CMC. Verbatim, it is too warm for ATL-AHN south. However, unlike 12Z NAM, it has more precip. coming in after wedging gets going similar to the Euro for wave 1 and with 850's in the ZR wjheelhouse of +3 to +5 for ATL-AHN and then down to MCN later. So, this implies major ZR ATL-AHN and probably at least some down to MCN later. So, this is much more like 0Z Euro than 12Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 thursday? that sounds awful considering that is after the lead wave. sigh. Ya, from wed 12z to thur 12z you guys are on the northern edge of qpf. 00z run had that further NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12Z CMC is warmer for GA at 2 meters and slightly warmer at 850 vs. 0Z CMC. Verbatim, it is too warm for ATL-AHN south. However, unlike 12Z NAM, it has more precip. coming in after wedging gets going similar to the Euro for wave 1 and with 850's in the ZR wjheelhouse of +3 to +5 for ATL-AHN and then down to MCN later. So, this implies major ZR ATL-AHN and probably at least some down to MCN. This run looks funky a bit. it pushes the 2m line down then up the down again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Will the euro hold, or are we in for surprises.... I'm not liking the overall trends for georgia and south carolina. If the euro caves, we might be out of luck and will have to sit here with our 33 degree rain while nc gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GEM shows my 'concern' so to speak with the second wave. The Euro was very close to not amplifying the second wave enough to throw precip into the western Carolinas. GEM shows that scenario. Still though, at face value, it's a nice hit for NC Tuesday. THe first wave is amplifying at the expense of the second wave. As long as it remains pos tilted, it'll leak out its energy to feed the initial wave. Is that not a better solution for a more widespread NC snow event given the placement of the high pressure farther west? A stronger 2nd wave would be more ice SC/GA with the CAD in place as WAA erodes the mid level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 All this talk about CAD and ZR in Atlanta. How do you explain that map above that bingcrosbyb posted showing snow in Birmingham ? If there's CAD how is Atlanta going to get ZR and Birmingham going to get snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GEM meteograms show 20MM of snow at RDU (i.e. about 0.8" liquid) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 THe first wave is amplifying at the expense of the second wave. As long as it remains pos tilted, it'll leak out its energy to feed the initial wave. Is that not a better solution for a more widespread NC snow event given the placement of the high pressure farther west? A stronger 2nd wave would be more ice SC/GA with the CAD in place as WAA erodes the mid level cold. Exactly. They work in tandem. Stronger first wave, likely a weaker, more suppressed second wave. Yes, a strong lead wave will give NC a good shot at snow, but it could very well come at the expense of areas farther south and at the expense of western NC getting a second round of precip Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 All this talk about CAD and ZR in Atlanta. How do you explain that map above that bingcrosbyb posted showing snow in Birmingham ? If there's CAD how is Atlanta going to get ZR and Birmingham going to get snow ? That particular model seems to show the first wave being suppressed vs most guidance, that would lead to snow in BHM and ATL...to me the setup synoptically ahead of the system looks alot like 1/19/92 overall, hence I'm surprised guidance shows that first wave going so far north...occasionally the influence of the highs can be underestimated...while I don't think those locations see anything frozen with the first wave it won't take a big shift for it to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 My main concern is for the temps. Just saying if the cold air gets held up coming down from the north or over the mtns, and precip gets here Monday midnight or so, it may be before the cold air can get fully established. I get real nervous every time an event has to start as rain and we have to wait for temps to come down during the event!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 So I here a lot of talk about CLT and GSO and a bit of RDU getting a good chance of 3"+...but how is central-eastern-southern NC looking? FAY? PGV? And are we talking Monday night into Tuesday or all day Tuesday and Tues night? Our temps look marginal at best Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.