burgertime Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Actually by 135 it's holding together well and picking up some steam. Nice HP in the NE. We'll see where this one takes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z GFS looks like it could get very interesting past 141. Good southern vort pushing east with energy diving in on the backside (will it phase?). Cold enough air for NC (for right now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 @147 moisture incoming with moderate sleet storm for points I-40 south in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z is a descent hit. IP to ZR for most of NC. It was close to a descent snow hit. I'll bet the ENS individual maps have some surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z is a descent hit. IP to ZR for most of NC. It was close to a descent snow hit. I'll bet the ENS individual maps have some surprises. Yeah, if we could get it to speed up just a little the high would be in a better position for more snow. By the time the heavier qpf gets to NC the high has slid NE and the wedge is breaking down some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Burger. You got a general synopsis of qpf? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Burger. You got a general synopsis of qpf? TW Looks 1/2 inch to an inch for much of the state. 1 inch is around the 74 and 85 corridors. Also SV snowfall maps actually have 3-6 inches across the I-40 region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z gfs certainly trended in the right direction. It's colder, High is stronger and in place faster. Surface low really looks impressive with prolific precip. Huge winter storm for nc for sure. Still not quite cold enough for northeast ga and parts of the upstate but all it would take is 2 or 3 degrees. I'm actually a bit surprised it's not colder because the damming signature looks really good and temps are in the single digits and low to mid teens underneath the parent high. It seems timing is the primary thing working against colder air further south..ie the high slides in just a hair too late. With this solution 12 hours would make a huge difference imo. But of course it's a huge hit for dc and the mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12z gfs certainly trended in the right direction. It's colder, High is stronger and in place faster. Surface low really looks impressive with prolific precip. Huge winter storm for nc for sure. Still not quite cold enough for northeast ga and parts of the upstate but all it would take is 2 or 3 degrees. I'm actually a bit surprised it's not colder because the damming signature looks really good and temps are in the single digits and low to mid teens underneath the parent high. It seems timing is the primary thing working against colder air further south..ie the high slides in just a hair too late. With this solution 12 hours would make a huge difference imo. But of course it's a huge hit for dc and the mid atlantic I wonder though given what has transpired with this weekend storm if that actually happens. Wouldn't be surprised if this is more of a true southern slider type storm and dodges the NE. Just seems the pattern we're in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 NW trend commencing already? The low is significantly farther NW than the 0z or 6z. Needs to move in faster and/or HP needs to hold longer. Quick burst of snow to IP to ZR to RN on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 NW trend commencing already? The low is significantly farther NW than the 0z or 6z. Needs to move in faster and/or HP needs to hold longer. Quick burst of snow to IP to ZR to RN on this run. Low takes almost a perfect track for a Miller A, just need more cold air. Like I mentioned to Chris I'm a little suspicious given what it looks like is going to happen with the storm this weekend. Models were sure it was going to be a Miller A and it looks like it's just going to slink OTS with a whimper. That does have me worried, but also thinking this one could be southern slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Taken literally some light snow and then significant sleet/freezing rain before changing to rain for RDU on this run. This is a complicated setup for sure. Keep in mind, that I think the grib parameter WEASD that is used for snow accumulation in the GFS/ECMWF, I believe also takes into account sleet or graupel. I have never been able to get a real answer on this, but it certainly is not all snow. That is why in some of these ice/mixed preicp events the snow accumulation forecasts can seem way off. Got to look at the soundings to really know what p-type the model is predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 NW trend commencing already? The low is significantly farther NW than the 0z or 6z. Needs to move in faster and/or HP needs to hold longer. Quick burst of snow to IP to ZR to RN on this run. Agree Cold Rain...The track was a little further west for my liking and the hp moved more NE today in comparison to last nights 0z run it moved more north. For our area this run was a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Agree Cold Rain...The track was a little furhter west for my liking and the hp moved more NE today in comparison to last nights 0z run it moved more north. For our area this run was a lot of rain. Look above you. It's also a lot of ice according to RaleighWx. Not just plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks like maybe a few flakes at the beginning then a massive IP/ZR storm for me. Really need this to trend colder or I will have mess on my hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Definitely has the look of a snow to sleet event for the NC folks north of 85. More snow the closer to mtns you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Robert Facebook Check out @WxSouth's Tweet: https://twitter.com/WxSouth/status/431467451822260224 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Low takes almost a perfect track for a Miller A, just need more cold air. Like I mentioned to Chris I'm a little suspicious given what it looks like is going to happen with the storm this weekend. Models were sure it was going to be a Miller A and it looks like it's just going to slink OTS with a whimper. That does have me worried, but also thinking this one could be southern slider. Yeah, it's just always unnerving to be right on the edge this far out with no margin for any more north trend. Hopefully, the track will remain south. Need that HP to be in place longer to force the track south or at least redevelopment to the south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Robert Facebook Check out @WxSouth's Tweet: https://twitter.com/WxSouth/status/431467451822260224 It's just amazing with all the cold air to work with this winter, the one time we get in a pattern with some great tracks it's almost impossible to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Low takes almost a perfect track for a Miller A, just need more cold air. Like I mentioned to Chris I'm a little suspicious given what it looks like is going to happen with the storm this weekend. Models were sure it was going to be a Miller A and it looks like it's just going to slink OTS with a whimper. That does have me worried, but also thinking this one could be southern slider. The difference here is this is all southern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Don't models usually under estimate the strength of the HP and the length of time the wedge will stay in place at this stage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's just amazing with all the cold air to work with this winter, the one time we get in a pattern with some great tracks it's almost impossible to find. Yeah, it really changed with the calendar. Soon as we got to February, it switched off. Of course we get a nice Miller A, with cold air just too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12Z RDU GFS OUCH ONCE AGAIN!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks like Gso stays 30 and under til it moves out. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks like Gso stays 30 and under til it moves out. TW Yep, it's a big 'ole storm for us in CAD central. Nice non-marginal surface temperatures. I still want to see this trend colder to get others in the game and so we can get more SN rather than IP/ZR. I would fret too much over one run of the GFS. This storm can and will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Now, we have 11 of the last 12 GFS runs and the last 4 Euro runs with at least a good portion of NC getting significant wintry precip. within 2/11-13. I want to keep this tally going because it is IMO a good indicator of the chances this will actually materialize. Also, I feel it is good for record keeping of the models' performance after the fact, which may help establish confidence levels for forecasting future threats. Verbatim per my provider's maps, practically all of N GA stays above 32 through the event. However, considering the almost textbook setup of Miller A, cold high (lows near 10 NYC inland burbs and N NJ), decent strength high (1032 mb 12z on 2/12), a pronounced wedge, surface temp.'s in the high 30's all of the way down to Montgomery and Columbus, 850's stuck in the critical +3 to +4 C range for major ZR, and heavy amounts of qpf (a whopping 1 to 1.5"), I sincerely feel the modeled surface temp .'s for N GA are quite possibly, if not likely, too warm by several degrees (as alluded to by Lookout). If that is really the case, we could easily be looking at the worst ZR for the ATL-AHN corridor and surrounding areas since at least 1/2005. I mean this run is almost textbook for major N GA ZR. Also, the ENSO being neutral negative is more supportive of major ZR there than any other ENSO phase per history fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Temps are borderline freezing for Charlotte with the 12z gfs. There is a chance for freezing precip, but dont get too excited yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I feel we're threading the needle a bit on this one with not much room for error temp wise. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 12Z GFS gives me .75 QPF with temps in the upper 20's and 850's from 0 to -3 during the event...ill take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Can someone provide a link for these charts? I used to have it, but can't find it now. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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