NoDa-wx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 When are we expecting some sample data to start coming in so the models get a better handle on things? I'll admit I was sceptical about this to start but everything seems to be looking pretty good on a consistent basis now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 All of our "good" storms have been Tuesday into Wednesday affairs. This is a Tuesday into Wednesday affair. I think that's good enough to hang my hat on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I honestly could've said it any better Raleigh. The European solution, by far, it seems to be the best middleground along with the Canadian. I also agree with you about the Nam being too far northwest in way too strong with the first energy. And the GFS, well hell it's the GFS. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Word Chips pushed to the center. I take it that you're all-in?....... You know it's a done deal when Queencitywx gets onboard. I have to say that I agree with you. It would appear that the GFS is coming around to the idea of a winter storm, but I just can't stop myself from thinking about how it could all go wrong. Still I believe that this one has a better chance of verifying than not. Edit.... What's the Euro, Nam, Canadian and Nogaps seeing that the GFS is not?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 How does the latest Nam and sref compare? Close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 All of our "good" storms have been Tuesday into Wednesday affairs. This is a Tuesday into Wednesday affair. I think that's good enough to hang my hat on.That and rubbing a rabbit's foot eh?Be interesting to see how the future gfs runs handle this as the divergence from the others is in the first 48hrs or so of the current run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Whenever these situations arise with a dry GFS and amped up Euro/NAM, I turn to the old Gary Gray archives leading up the 96 blizzard. I've saved them: http://wow.americanwx.com/gg/ LOL..wow I remember him. That's awesome but i feel old Gfs looks completely different than the nam, euro, and canadian, etc. Every model's differences and unique solutions mean a world of difference in terms of sensible weather for any one location. Nws folks have to love it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 How does the latest Nam and sref compare? Close? Nam has more precip. (snow wise) for NC areas it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 How does the latest Nam and sref compare? Close? The precip shield and r/s lines are quite similar.. NAM is wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 At hour 48 the 12z RGEM is more like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Thanks Allen that RGEM image is very encouraging. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I know this will be considered a MBY post.....but I have been seaching all morning for something alittle more definative on what last nights ecmwf showed for the upstate. Did it speed up the system to Tuesday as the other models seem to be doing? Also if taken at face value what would the predominant p-type by for that area and are we still looking at over an inch of qpf?? Again I apologize but I have a real hard time finding info on ecmwf runs (I can find tons on GFS and NAM) I can find some upper air info and charts but have a hard time translating that to surface conditions. Feel free to delete.....will definately be understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 BTW, for those wondering, the 00z EPS mean is almost identical as yesterday afternoon's run, at least as far as totals are concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The 12Z RGEM 48 looks less amped than the NAM with wave #1 and with the high's position a bit further east than the NAM suggesting wedging would likely set up sooner than the nam and more like the 0Z Euro. The 48 hour 12Z RGEM looks more like the 0Z Euro's 60 than the 12Z NAM's 48 sfc featurewise. In summary, I'm guessing the 12Z GGEM 54-84 will look more like the 0Z Euro's 66-96 than the 12Z NAM's 54-84. Any opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12Z UKIE is maybe somewhere in between the NAM/GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 At hour 48 the 12z RGEM is more like the NAM. Overrunning moisture pulling in quicker on the RGEM. Might start up here as soon as Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The 12Z RGEM 48 looks less amped than the NAM with wave #1 and with the high's position a bit further east than the NAM suggesting wedging would likely set up sooner than the nam and more like the 0Z Euro. The 48 hour 12Z RGEM looks more like the 0Z Euro's 60 than the 12Z NAM's 48 sfc featurewise. In summary, I'm guessing the 12Z GGEM 54-84 will look more like the 0Z Euro's 66-96 than the 12Z NAM's 54-84. Any opinions? 12z canadian seems to be in between the nam and gfs so far through hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The 12Z RGEM 48 looks less amped than the NAM with wave #1 and with the high's position a bit further east than the NAM suggesting wedging would likely set up sooner than the nam and more like the 0Z Euro. The 48 hour 12Z RGEM looks more like the 0Z Euro's 60 than the 12Z NAM's 48 sfc featurewise. In summary, I'm guessing the 12Z GGEM 54-84 will look more like the 0Z Euro's 66-96 than the 12Z NAM's 54-84. Any opinions? My guess it would look more like the CMC/EURO. I only see it out to hr12 on WSI site.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The 12Z 72 Ukie and RGEM 48 both look to me more like the 0Z Euro 84/60 than the 12Z NAM 72/48. The 1st wave isn't as amped as the NAM and the wedging is about to get established earlier to work with more of the 1st wave's precip. Opinions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The 12Z 72 Ukie and RGEM 48 both look to me more like the 0Z Euro 84/60 than the 12Z NAM 72/48. The 1st wave isn't as amped as the NAM and the wedging is about to get established earlier. Opinions? Agreed Larry!! Tells me that the EURO is gonna come in around the same, but a couple of hours will show us that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billypg Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Frank Straight used the CMC last night on his blog His reasoning was that it was more of a compromise between the Euro & GFS Of course this was prior to last night's epic Euro run or any other run since ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 CMC big hit at 72, waiting on better maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Agreed Larry!! Tells me that the EURO is gonna come in around the same, but a couple of hours will show us that. Yeah, look at the 12z Ukie's 72 hour wave #1 vs. the 12Z 72 nam and 0Z Euro 84. It is weaker like the Euro (~1014 vs. more amped NAM's ~1010) and further west like the Euro. I think 12Z GGEM's is similar too 12Z ukie/ 0Z Euro. too and disagree with 12Z nam. This also may mean better chances for 2nd wave to be a big deal unlike NAM's implication..i.e., NAM pus so much into 1st wave that not much left for 2nd wave to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 CMC big hit after 72, looks like Euro, waiting on better maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I am not a pro with maps, but everything I see has December 09 storm written all over it (at least from a sensible standpoint). Nc got hammered while upstate and NGA gets the ultimate screw job of cold rain with a little sleet thrown in to rub salt in the wound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I am not a pro with maps, but everything I see has December 09 storm written all over it (at least from a sensible standpoint). Nc got hammered while upstate and NGA gets the ultimate screw job of cold rain with a little sleet thrown in to rub salt in the wound. Got warm nosed on that one and ended up with a bunch of sleet north of CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Looks warmer at 2m for us in GA. Looks like its a bit more amped with the first shortwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I am not a pro with maps, but everything I see has December 09 storm written all over it (at least from a sensible standpoint). Nc got hammered while upstate and NGA gets the ultimate screw job of cold rain with a little sleet thrown in to rub salt in the wound. 88 is a much better analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 CMC slowly coming in, looks unbelievable, looks like Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 88 is a much better analog I have to agree here.. a Euro/NAM blend would hit it on the nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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