GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The 12z nam is different from the 0z Euro in that 1) It has warmer for GA with sig wintry precip only far north as wedging not yet established in time south of there for a big hit of IP/ZR. There's more like. 0.25-0.50 ATL-AHN and AGS, .50 CAE, and under 0.25 MCN. The different angle is in play as per Lookout 6z nam comment . 2) The 2nd wave looks like it may be weaker, much further south, and may end up not amounting to much at all. So, overall 12z nam would be big hit nc/far n ga/nwcorner sc from 1st wave, but much less wintry ATL-CAE and south of there for 2 waves combined. Lookout and others, agree or disagree? Of course this is unreliable 54-84 Nam vs Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM snow. That's insane. Too bad it's the nam lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm not saying it will trend south, just stating the differences between the nam and euro. If this wave is as amped up as the nam, the euro and gfs are likely too cold aloft and would spell more rain or ice for areas further south. If you are in georgia or south carolina, you don't want this first wave as strong or as far north as the nam. Oh, I agree...The energy this strong would take us out for sure for the first wave. My guess is the nam is too far north at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I have a feeling that the 1st wave, VIA the NAM would be the only real deal for most of us. That 2nd piece looks very far south and very slow to move out. Interesting look, but NAM hasn't been the best around here lately either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hasn't every storm this winter pretty much been colder aloft than models predicted? I would worry about that for you guys. Gonna be hard to get 850's to sink much lower in the set up for sleet the further south you go but I would guess 2m temps on the maps start getting colder especially with it speeding up on that first wave. GFS may finally catch on today. I think they have been about right as far as temps aloft go. I can't think of any situation where they were really off. As far as surface temps go, the nam has the system coming in so fast that the wedge sets up well after the rain/precip has started. So this isn't like one of those situations where the models fail to grasp on to the dry air in place and evaporational cooling. Instead, things will already be saturated when the wedge starts to move south so I'm hesitant to say the surface temps are too warm since it's that initial evaporational cooling that often makes the difference and that's when you can say the models are probably a few degrees too warm. In this case though, i don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wow at the NAM. Huge changes and it's getting better and better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This run is still well north of the euro with it's precip shield. It's also still warmer aloft across north ga/sc than the euro. Taken verbatum though, it's rain over to sleet and/or freezing rain between hours 66 and 72 for much of northeast ga. It's surface temps are a little misleading because actual soundings show temps right at freezing, with subfreezing wetbulbs, by around hour 69.. Still a significant sleet/freezing rain event for many in northeast ga and a hell of a snow storm for the mountains but the rain at the start sucks for the athens/gainesville areas. Yes, there are differences obviously wrt precip shield and r/s line.. but the overall process of delivering the precip earlier as primarily an overrunning event and pulling off the southern wave energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM snow. HA! That'll make every NC snow lover happy outside of Brunswick county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The sleet line is perilously close to MBY. Although, if you can be just north of that transition, that's almost always the best snow rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The 12z nam is different from the 0z Euro in that 1) It has warmer for GA with sig wintry precip only far north as wedging not yet established in time south of there for a big hit of IP/ZR. There's more like. 0.25-0.50 ATL-AHN and AGS, .50 CAE, and under 0.25 MCN. The different angle is in play as per Lookout 6z nam comment . 2) The 2nd wave looks like it may be weaker, much further south, and may end up not amounting to much at all. So, overall 12z nam would be big hit nc/far n ga/nwcorner sc from 1st wave, but much less wintry ATL-CAE and south of there for 2 waves combined. Lookout and others, agree or disagree? Of course this is unreliable 54-84 Nam vs Euro. Agreed larry. Those areas would stand to get a fair amount of rain before any changeover...and any snow accumulations would be completely wiped out for much of south carolina and areas just outside the mountains/far northeast ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 From WXsouth facebook: Another view of the final snowfall graphics through 84 hours (Tuesday night). WxBell graphics shows this as a big 9" to 12" snowstorm in much of NC. One of the better snowfalls affecting much of mid South region in a few years. Use this map only as a TREND, not the final forecast. The European Model also had major amounts but was more in Georgia and northwest SC than the NAM is showing. Right now, a blend of NAM and Euro is the best overall way to go, since mesoscale features are better captured on the NAM not European. But we will compare all the model runs here in a few hours.Bottom line, this event starts Monday in Tennessee Valley and northern MS, AL, GA then spreads into Carolinas overnight and Va , Carolinas Tuesday. The High Pressure is in an excellent spot with plenty of cold air coming in, in fact for North Carolina and northeast Georgia and northern SC, the temps will fall into the middle and upper 20's by early Tuesday and hold there through the storm Tuesday. A strong damming event and a wild (and rare) Winter storm is shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The GFS is trying. More moisture over the south @45 compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Correct. This is the type of setup where the winners will be on the battle line during the heart of the storm. Best rates with heavy wet flakes. The sleet line is perilously close to MBY. Although, if you can be just north of that transition, that's almost always the best snow rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yes, there are differences obviously wrt precip shield and r/s line.. but the overall process of delivering the precip earlier as primarily an overrunning event and pulling off the southern wave energy. The thing is though for areas in ga/sc, we don't want the precip to come in so fast so the cad can set up. The timing is great..perfect in fact, for north carolina but not so much for ga and sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Inverted trough across Gulf Coast is a little furtner north this run of the GFS at hour 51. My hunch is GFS starts trending towards other models this run and for next several. Think convective feedback was plaguing it earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The thing is though for areas in ga/sc, we don't want the precip to come in so fast so the cad can set up. The timing is great..perfect in fact, for north carolina but not so much for ga and sc. Yeah I suppose you guys need the CAD fully in place to get in on the fun. With such an extended fetch of moisture to work with, hopefully we all can cash in on something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 00z NAM drops GSO from 32 at onset to 20 as it ends. Just over 1" qpf. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah... GFS is coming around bit by bit here. Working the precip shield further north... kinda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The thing is though for areas in ga/sc, we don't want the precip to come in so fast so the cad can set up. The timing is great..perfect in fact, for north carolina but not so much for ga and sc. Also, though not definite, the 2nd wave setting up to be weak/far south (very little in W GOM at hour 84) as per very unreliable 84 12Z NAM vs. Euro. So, to me the 2 models have big diff.'s and NC gets a lot from either but much of SC/Ga get far less from two waves, combined. But it is NAM 54-84, which is often bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The sounding for KRDU for the 12z NAM is just beautiful...3 or so hours of heavy rates and almost all liquid is a textbook all snow sounding. A county or so south at KFAY not so pritty, heavy IP, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The thing is though for areas in ga/sc, we don't want the precip to come in so fast so the cad can set up. The timing is great..perfect in fact, for north carolina but not so much for ga and sc. Indeed....the 12z nam says the temp at cae is near 50 when the precip arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 We have nam north, gfs south, and the king in the middle. Sounds like a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 GFS still looking similar to past runs, although a little wetter trend with 1st wave at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah I suppose you guys need the CAD fully in place to get in on the fun. With such an extended fetch of moisture to work with, hopefully we all can cash in on something here. I hope so too. It would really..and I mean really hurt for a lot of georgia/sc folks see nc get hammered with that much snow while we miss something really special here by 1 or 2 degrees. Also, though not definite, the 2nd wave setting up to be weak/far south (very little in W GOM at hour 84) as per very unreliable 84 12Z NAM vs. Euro. So, to me the 2 models have big diff.'s and NC gets a lot from either but much of SC/Ga get far less from two waves, combined. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 We have nam north, gfs south, and the king in the middle. Sounds like a winner. Word Chips pushed to the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm going All in if the euro comes in the same on the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nevermind.. GFS blows it again. Dry. We have ourselves a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm going All in if the euro comes in the same on the 12z run Although the 00z run was a bit of a different evolution then the previous several runs, the consistency of it showing a major winter storm for man in the SE is very noteworthy and carries weight. As much as I love the NAM solution, it is likely too amped up and too far NW, a typical bias. Euro solution makes pretty good sense. GGEM is also a reasonalbe setup. The American models are both sides of the extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Word Chips pushed to the center. Such extreme differences for as little as 48 to 60 hours (the differences start out very early) out is nuts. Nam has a million inches of snow for nc while the gfs has essentially nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Such extreme differences for as little as 48 to 60 hours (the differences start out very early) out is nuts. Nam has a million inches of snow for nc while the gfs has essentially nothing. Whenever these situations arise with a dry GFS and amped up Euro/NAM, I turn to the old Gary Gray archives leading up the 96 blizzard. I've saved them: http://wow.americanwx.com/gg/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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