deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The threat of this being drawn out is telling me/showing me (models) that the high sticks in there longer as well. I think one thing to MEGA consider is its been an arctic field zone for much of us in the SE and def. the NE. There will plenty of cold air (and I would assume snowpack) for this air to come down on. I was thinking maybe a 1036mb wouldn't be good enough for GA, but in this instance I think its more than enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Nobody should complain about totals. A week ago we had nothing to talk about and now the biggest storm since 09-10 is possible. Every storm this winter has had more moisture than models have shown whether its rain or the little snow we had. A 2-4 inch storm is better than the dusting we had last week and 6-12 is still possible so let's get it here then worry about accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The threat of this being drawn out is telling me/showing me (models) that the high sticks in there longer as well. I think one thing to MEGA consider is its been an arctic field zone for much of us in the SE and def. the NE. There will plenty of cold air (and I would assume snowpack) for this air to come down on. I was thinking maybe a 1036mb wouldn't be good enough for GA, but in this instance I think its more than enough. After gawx's stats on hp and ice/snow in n ga that could easily get it done this time. We have been lucky this year with the arctic cold and generally wet storms for over a year now. We may be finally seeing everything come together with cold and moisture to give most of us a great winter storm. Just saw on a news site a huge percentage of country has snow on the ground. That should bode well to keep it cold enough. I think I can remember maybe one storm where we started as rain and went to ice/sleet as the wedge came in. It was pretty cool and wild to see what is usually the opposite: snow to ice to plain rain If we can get the wedge to build in at the start/beginning we should not need to worry as much about a transient hp or a quickly eroding in situ set up for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z nam matching up pretty nicely with 6z nam as of hr 45, maybe a little more progressive then 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM is torching at the surface. I don't see how this evolves to something "wintry" outside of the mountains. EDIT: I take that back. The surface freezing line dropped south quite nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 snow breaks out at hr 54 over wnc, foothills at hr 57 with freezing line almost hugging the border of nc/sc with Greenville, SC a mess. Hr 60 precip makes it to CLT with freezing line south of border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Hr 63 precip knocking on RDU's door. At Hr 66 2/3 of NC under precip. including RDU with 850 line cutting through Ne Ga and into SC. Hr 69 2/3 of NC under .1-.25 qpf areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12Z NAM hour 69 (9Z Tuesday morning) is absolutely hammering WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12z nam 84 hr snowfall map has almost the entire state in the 10"+ zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM through 84 is a really nice hit for ORF down to RDU and most of NC, but the NAM seems to have a wet bias so take it with a grain or several grains of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12Z NAM has stronger high pressure over central US 1038 compared to 1032 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Congrats NC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 What a difference a day makes now with the leading wave pushing in stronger and pulls the energy out of the southern wave back over Texas to keep the moisture coming. With the precip coming in quicker the cold air is still well in place.. Perfect timing. backs up the euro with regard to this payout as well. Return of the EE rule? If the euro and eta (now the nam) are in agreement, bank on it!... As DT would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Just kind of getting into it now I really needed a break after the disappointment from this weekends disappearing storm so haven't looked at the models too too much. Anyone think this thing can trend north a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Just kind of getting into it now I really needed a break after the disappointment from this weekends disappearing storm so haven't looked at the models too too much. Anyone think this thing can trend north a little?Don't worry. It'll trend north tomorrow. NW NC will get some snow and VA will be in the jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wow what a hit from the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM is a dream scenario for folks in NC. As Wow discussed this is a long duration event. If the NAM keeps it up this could turn EPIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 So now it appears the front end energy comes in and lays the hammer down, but also does the dirty work by setting up the main energy. NAM has a banana type high ready for a wonderful wedge down the apps. Again, all hail the euro....NAM should continue to trend south with this as well. Hello....GFS....the world is calling!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 What a difference a day makes now with the leading wave pushing in stronger and pulls the energy out of the southern wave back over Texas to keep the moisture coming. With the precip coming in quicker the cold air is still well in place.. Perfect timing. backs up the euro with regard to this payout as well. Return of the EE rule? If the euro and eta (now the nam) are in agreement, bank on it!... As DT would say. This run is still well north of the euro with it's precip shield. It's also still warmer aloft across north ga/sc than the euro as well. Taken verbatim though, it's rain over to sleet and/or freezing rain between hours 66 and 72 for much of northeast ga and a fair bit of sc. It's surface temps are a little misleading because actual soundings show temps right at freezing, with subfreezing wetbulbs, by around hour 69.. Still a significant sleet/freezing rain event for many in northeast ga and sc and a hell of a snow storm for the mountains but the rain at the start sucks. Again differences here between the nam and euro mean the difference between a historical snow for much of south carolina and a mixed bag of rain and ice with the first wave. Although the details for nc are not nearly as important between the two since nc gets hit with snow either way, it's huge for areas further south. Not sure what the nam would do with any second wave. It doesn't look overly impressive at 700 and 850mb to the west in terms of moisture and overall flow. Certainly would mean something frozen or freezing if there is a second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM is a dream scenario for folks in NC. As Wow discussed this is a long duration event. If the NAM keeps it up this could turn EPIC. Yes it is It looks like CAE ends up with close to .90 in ice with maybe some sleet mixed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Agreeed Lookout, the nam precip shield is trending south, and I think it will to finally match up with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Did the DGEX just score the coup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This thing is really speeding up. Feels like we've moved the timeline ahead 60 hours in about 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 This thing is really speeding up. Feels like we've moved the timeline ahead 60 hours in about 2 runs. That's kind of typical...usually it's 12-24 hours faster as we get there. As long as that fetch is there this only works better for you and me. Would love to see the GFS catch on today. Not sure I trust the NAM QPF but this would be a heavy wet snow either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Here's the snow map from Twisterdata (snow would still be falling in Central NC eastward): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=08&model_init_hh=12&fhour=84¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Agreeed Lookout, the nam precip shield is trending south, and I think it will to finally match up with the euro. I'm not saying it will trend south, just stating the differences between the nam and euro. If this wave is as amped up as the nam, the euro and gfs are likely too cold aloft and would spell more rain or ice for areas further south. If you are in georgia or south carolina, you don't want this first wave as strong or as far north as the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM keys more on the initial wave and runs a 850mb low across northern MS/AL/GA/SC to Cape Hatteras...matches up well with the snow north of that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM keys more on the initial wave and runs a 850mb low across northern MS/AL/GA/SC to Cape Hatteras...matches up well with the snow north of that track. Perfect track for us. We couldn't draw up a better track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NAM snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm not saying it will trend south, just stating the differences between the nam and euro. If this wave is as amped up as the nam, the euro and gfs are likely too cold aloft and would spell more rain or ice for areas further south. If you are in georgia or south carolina, you don't want this first wave as strong or as far north as the nam. Hasn't every storm this winter pretty much been colder aloft than models predicted? I would worry about that for you guys. Gonna be hard to get 850's to sink much lower in the set up for sleet the further south you go but I would guess 2m temps on the maps start getting colder especially with it speeding up on that first wave. GFS may finally catch on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.