Feb 12-13 Sleet/Snow/ZR Event

[strongwxnc]

Great disco last night folks. Was great to see the euro hold up. Also love hearing 88 get danced around.

Again, thanks for all the great posting !

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

The NAM looks extremely close to the Euro. 6z GFS taking a step there as well. For my back yard this got really good!

I'd take the Euro/Nam combination pretty seriously. The GFS is the outlier and I really don't buy the drier look it has. This is getting close, and it has been very well modeled by the Euro all along. It appears to be a legitimate winter storm threat for a large part of our forum. It would not be a bad idea to start preparations for what could very well be major hit. If the GFS comes around, which I feel sure it will, then I put our chances of a winter storm at 75%. As for the freezing rain/snow line, right now I would draw a line from just north of ATL to GSP to just south of CLT northeast toward RAL. The heaviest snowfall would be just north of that line. That's just based off of past events. Good luck to those folks who are in the freezing rain zone with this system.

[Shawn]

I'd take the Euro/Nam combination pretty seriously. The GFS is the outlier and I really don't buy the drier look it has. This is getting close, and it has been very well modeled by the Euro all along. It appears to be a legitimate winter storm threat for a large part of our forum. It would not be a bad idea to start preparations for what could very well be major hit. If the GFS comes around, which I feel sure it will, then I put our chances of a winter storm at 75%. As for the freezing rain/snow line, right now I would draw a line from just north of ATL to GSP to just south of CLT northeast toward RAL. The heaviest snowfall would be just north of that line. That's just based off of past events. Good luck to those folks who are in the freezing rain zone with this system.

 

Already preparing.  In the end if I buy canned food, gas, kerosene, etc.. it wont kill me to have it and not need it vs the other side.  heading out early tomorrow for gas/kerosene at least.  If the 12z euro comes in with a hit/EPS members.. im going grocery shopping.  I feel like almost 50/50 members just has to trend weaker through this area.. we'll see.  Man.. I wish we could be cold for snow here.

[RaleighWx]

Also, FYI, I have added individual SREF member images now to the SREF page on the model site. For those interested.

[packbacker]

6z GEFS look really good

[POWERSTROKE]

Indeed... February of 2004 was the last time this amount of snow was even a possibility this close.

I remember March 1, 2009 Robert telling me 8-12 in Winston. We got 11. It was on Friday and was a gone on Monday

[FallsLake]

6z NAM looks great. If I could lock this I would take it:

Hour 84 6 hour precip and 850 temp:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/nam/06/nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Hour 84 24 hour total:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/nam/06/nam_namer_084_precip_p24.gif

And still coming down at hour 84:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/nam/06/nam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif

[NavarreDon]

GSP has def. raised a eyebrow!

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EST SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING A LITTLE WITH
THE FCST TUE THROUGH WED...EVEN WITH VARYING THERMAL/MOISTURE SOLNS
BTW THE OP MODELS. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGH CHANCE ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AND GOING TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN FRINGE WED...WHEN THE
BETTER CONSENSUS IS HAD IN THE AREAS OF DEEPER FORCING. THE 00Z GFS
IS AN INTERESTING OUTLIER AND LIKELY HAS CONV FEEDBACK ISSUES
PRODUCING OVERDONE AREAS OF DNVA TO THE SOUTH WED...THUS KEEPING
IT/S FORCED QPF RESPONSE ALONG THE GOM COAST THEN EAST OVER SRN
GA/SC NEAR IT/S WEAK SFC REFLECTION. THE 00Z ECWMF ON THE
OTHER HAND...HAS CONTINUED A MORE NATURAL PROGRESSION FROM IT/S
PREVIOUS MILLER/A RUN AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE CMC IN MANY AREAS.

THE FCST FOR TUE CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AND COLD. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST ALL -SN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHILE THICKNESS
NOMOGRAMS HAVE A DEFINITE MIX ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. A LOT
WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL SFC/LAYERED TEMPS THROUGH MID MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS TO WHAT THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE WILL BE AND HOW
MUCH ACCUM IF ANY WILL MATERIALIZE. FOR NOW...WENT MORE WITH A RA/SN
MIX BASED ON SFC TW/S SRN HALF AND ALL -SN NRN HALF OF THE CWFA
THROUGH AROUND 16Z...WITH A TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN THEREAFTER
OUTSIDE THE HIGHER MTN TERRAIN.

ON WED...THE WEDGE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AND COLD AIR IS
REINFORCED AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PARENT SFC HIGH
NEVER REALLY ANCHORS AND REMAINS TRANSIENT...ESP ON THE GFS HYBRID
PROGS. WILL COUNT ON THE BEST QPF RESPONSE THROUGH THE DAYTIME WED
AS MOIST ISENT LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WITH THE PROBABLE STRENGTHENING
MILLER/A SETUP. WITH H100/H85 PARTIAL THICKNESSES REMAINING IN THE
MARGINAL RANGE ACROSS THE SRN ZONES WILL WILL ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF
-SN/ZR/IP THROUGH MID DAY...WHILE ALL -SN SHOULD AFFECT THE NRN
ZONES. ONCE AGAIN THE SFC LAYERED TEMPS SHOULD WARM JUST ENOUGH TO
PERMIT A TRANSITION TO -RA ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LLVL THERMAL
FIELDS HOWEVER...AND THERE IS A CHANCE PROFILES COULD REMAIN COLD
ENUF FOR A WINTRY MIX TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MOST AREAS.

THINGS COULD STAY ACTIVE ON THU AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE PROMOTES
ENOUGH LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING COLD AIR AND FLUX MOISTURE
IN THE LLVLS. THE GFS IS PRETTY MUCH ALL ALONE LEADING THE CHARGE
WITH THIS POTENTIAL...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. POPS ARE IN THE LOW END
CHANCE RANGE...YET IF IT PANS OUT...AN INSITU WEDGE AND ENOUGH ATL
MOISTURE COULD BRING A ROUND OF -FZRA/IP EARLY THU MORNING MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR.

[burgertime]

GSP has def. raised a eyebrow!

 

THINGS COULD STAY ACTIVE ON THU AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE PROMOTES

ENOUGH LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING COLD AIR AND FLUX MOISTURE

IN THE LLVLS. THE GFS IS PRETTY MUCH ALL ALONE LEADING THE CHARGE

WITH THIS POTENTIAL...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. POPS ARE IN THE LOW END

CHANCE RANGE...YET IF IT PANS OUT...AN INSITU WEDGE AND ENOUGH ATL

MOISTURE COULD BRING A ROUND OF -FZRA/IP EARLY THU MORNING MAINLY

NORTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR.

 

Amazing that GSP thinks this could last three days.

[FallsLake]

RAH just put out a (updated)Hazardous Outlook. Doesn't say much but this is the first step -- hazardous Outlook - Winter Storm Watch -- Winter Storm Warning / Winter weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND

MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS DURING THE MIDDLE

OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION MAY OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC AS EARLY AS

TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A

WINTRY MIXTURE. RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR

DETAILS AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MID WEEK STORM

INCREASES.

[Lookout]

So now the NAM has Caved to the Euro

Not quite. Actually the nam looks a lot different from the euro. The euro has precip much further south..by a couple of hundred miles at the same time period actually.

 

it is insane to see such wildly different solutions for as little as 3 days out. The only common theme is more or less north carolina will get snow and ice regardless of what happens. And probably south carolina too...with a strong sub freezing wedge developing down into georgia .But in terms of actual details of how much falls and of what, it's just impossible to say right now. models are changing so much from run to run and not just with small details either but big ones, it's just nuts.

[burgertime]

Not quite. Actually the nam looks a lot different from the euro. The euro has precip much further south..by a couple of hundred miles at the same time period actually.

 

it is insane to see such wildly different solutions for as little as 3 days out. The only common theme is more or less north carolina will get snow and ice regardless of what happens. And probably south carolina too....But in terms of actual details of how much falls and of what, it's just impossible to say right now. models are changing so much from run to run and not just with small details either but big ones, it's just nuts.

 

i think people are saying the NAM caved because of how far south it dropped precip compared to 00z. On the SFC for NC it looks close to the QPF amounts. Would not be shocked to see 12z have a better fetch coming across upper AL,GA etc.. 

[Brick Tamland]

RAH just put out a (updated)Hazardous Outlook. Doesn't say much but this is the first step -- hazardous Outlook - Winter Storm Watch -- Winter Storm Warning / Winter weather Advisory..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ANDMOVE NORTHEAST NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS DURING THE MIDDLEOF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION MAY OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC AS EARLY ASTUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY INCLUDE AWINTRY MIXTURE. RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FORDETAILS AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MID WEEK STORMINCREASES.

Seems pretty conservative still. Maybe they and the local media are waiting on the GFS to come around or just take more stock in the GFS instead of the Euro and all the other models now pointing to some kind of winter storm here. Like Lookout said, they might have different details, but all of them except the GFS is showing a significant event, and even the GFS is taking steps toward that way. I think it is better safe than sorry, and I am going to get prepared today and not wait for the local media to sound the alarm on Monday. Then you will have to fight the rush of folks at the grocery store and gas station.

[Tacoma]

GSP has def. raised a eyebrow!

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 305 AM EST SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING A LITTLE WITH

THE FCST TUE THROUGH WED...EVEN WITH VARYING THERMAL/MOISTURE SOLNS

BTW THE OP MODELS. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE HIGH CHANCE ACROSS MOST

OF THE AREA AND GOING TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN FRINGE WED...WHEN THE

BETTER CONSENSUS IS HAD IN THE AREAS OF DEEPER FORCING. THE 00Z GFS

IS AN INTERESTING OUTLIER AND LIKELY HAS CONV FEEDBACK ISSUES

PRODUCING OVERDONE AREAS OF DNVA TO THE SOUTH WED...THUS KEEPING

IT/S FORCED QPF RESPONSE ALONG THE GOM COAST THEN EAST OVER SRN

GA/SC NEAR IT/S WEAK SFC REFLECTION. THE 00Z ECWMF ON THE

OTHER HAND...HAS CONTINUED A MORE NATURAL PROGRESSION FROM IT/S

PREVIOUS MILLER/A RUN AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE CMC IN MANY AREAS.

THE FCST FOR TUE CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AND COLD. THERMAL PROFILES

SUGGEST ALL -SN FOR MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHILE THICKNESS

NOMOGRAMS HAVE A DEFINITE MIX ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. A LOT

WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL SFC/LAYERED TEMPS THROUGH MID MORNING

AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS TO WHAT THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE WILL BE AND HOW

MUCH ACCUM IF ANY WILL MATERIALIZE. FOR NOW...WENT MORE WITH A RA/SN

MIX BASED ON SFC TW/S SRN HALF AND ALL -SN NRN HALF OF THE CWFA

THROUGH AROUND 16Z...WITH A TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN THEREAFTER

OUTSIDE THE HIGHER MTN TERRAIN.

ON WED...THE WEDGE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED AND COLD AIR IS

REINFORCED AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PARENT SFC HIGH

NEVER REALLY ANCHORS AND REMAINS TRANSIENT...ESP ON THE GFS HYBRID

PROGS. WILL COUNT ON THE BEST QPF RESPONSE THROUGH THE DAYTIME WED

AS MOIST ISENT LIFT IS MAXIMIZED WITH THE PROBABLE STRENGTHENING

MILLER/A SETUP. WITH H100/H85 PARTIAL THICKNESSES REMAINING IN THE

MARGINAL RANGE ACROSS THE SRN ZONES WILL WILL ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF

-SN/ZR/IP THROUGH MID DAY...WHILE ALL -SN SHOULD AFFECT THE NRN

ZONES. ONCE AGAIN THE SFC LAYERED TEMPS SHOULD WARM JUST ENOUGH TO

PERMIT A TRANSITION TO -RA ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA BY THE

AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LLVL THERMAL

FIELDS HOWEVER...AND THERE IS A CHANCE PROFILES COULD REMAIN COLD

ENUF FOR A WINTRY MIX TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MOST AREAS.

THINGS COULD STAY ACTIVE ON THU AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE PROMOTES

ENOUGH LIFT IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING COLD AIR AND FLUX MOISTURE

IN THE LLVLS. THE GFS IS PRETTY MUCH ALL ALONE LEADING THE CHARGE

WITH THIS POTENTIAL...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. POPS ARE IN THE LOW END

CHANCE RANGE...YET IF IT PANS OUT...AN INSITU WEDGE AND ENOUGH ATL

MOISTURE COULD BRING A ROUND OF -FZRA/IP EARLY THU MORNING MAINLY

NORTH OF THE I85 CORRIDOR.

Brick GSP thinks the GFS is an outlier, lets hope so.

[RevDodd]

Seems pretty conservative still. Maybe they and the local media are waiting on the GFS to come around or just take more stock in the GFS instead of the Euro and all the other models now pointing to some kind of winter storm here. Like Lookout said, they might have different details, but all of them except the GFS is showing a significant event, and even the GFS is taking steps toward that way. I think it is better safe than sorry, and I am going to get prepared today and not wait for the local media to sound the alarm on Monday. Then you will have to fight the rush of folks at the grocery store and gas station.

NWS is following the prudent course. Let folks know something is coming, then likely go to WS watch tomorrow.

[AirNelson39]

Wcnc in Charlotte only showed the NAM and GFS on there forecast this morning, they only said Monday night into Tuesday needs to be watched with rain maybe changing to snow. Boy are they playing it conservative, if you're going to show models at least show the euro as well.

[Lookout]

i think people are saying the NAM caved because of how far south it dropped precip compared to 00z. On the SFC for NC it looks close to the QPF amounts. Would not be shocked to see 12z have a better fetch coming across upper AL,GA etc.. 

Although I agree it's much different than prior runs which is good for the north carolina folks, in terms of details I don't consider it caving to the euro.   Not only is the nam further north, it's faster, it's heavier, and the entire configuration of the precip shield is different. It's 850mb temperature configuration (to steal a line from rainstorm, the angle of the cold is different lol) And finally, it's warmer than the euro..in particular at the surface. The euro has the freezing line down into northeast ga to columbia at 90 hours. However, the 06z nam at 84 hours shows it more or less only in north carolina.

 

So in terms of sensible weather across a large area, timing, and accumulations of various types, there are a lot of important differences.

[deltadog03]

oh, how the plot thickens...hahahha

[deltadog03]

I would be really concerned at this point if your in SC and NC.  I think somewhere in GA there is going to be a massive ZR storm.  EURO, verbatim was a smidge warm here for it, but taking a warm bias in to account, it was about 30-32 degrees with over an inch of qpf.  This is going to be fun to track. 

[burgertime]

SREF came in wetter with it's latest run. Has .25 across all of the SE for the most part. 

[burgertime]

Although I agree it's much different than prior runs which is good for the north carolina folks, in terms of details I don't consider it caving to the euro.   Not only is the nam further north, it's faster, it's heavier, and the entire configuration of the precip shield is different. It's 850mb temperature configuration (to steal a line from rainstorm, the angle of the cold is different lol) And finally, it's warmer than the euro..in particular at the surface. The euro has the freezing line down into northeast ga to columbia at 90 hours. However, the 06z nam at 84 hours shows it more or less only in north carolina.

 

So in terms of sensible weather across a large area, timing, and accumulations of various types, there are a lot of important differences.

 

You know how it is though with us NC folks just compare SFC map and snow map. No need to look at anything else.

If I had to bet, I'll bet 12z looks closer to what the Euro is showing. Would not be shocked at all for the NAM to start falling in line with that. Who knows what the 12z runs will bring though. 

[buckeyefan1]

 

I would be really concerned at this point if your in SC and NC.  I think somewhere in GA there is going to be a massive ZR storm.  EURO, verbatim was a smidge warm here for it, but taking a warm bias in to account, it was about 30-32 degrees with over an inch of qpf.  This is going to be fun to track. 

 

What happened to my 33 and rain? Could you please bring it back?     It already has been fun to track    I was in Charlotte during '88 when 12" fell so I'm pulling for my peeps to my north and west. As for here......watching as the models turn will have me entertained for the next couple of days.  

[franklin NCwx]

Just saw the euro, much less qpf but stays colder looks like all snow per 850 temps.

[Tacoma]

Just saw the euro, much less qpf but stays colder looks like all snow per 850 temps.

850 line on the Nam thru 84 looks to include the Upstate and N.E. GA. .  this looks to be mostly snow also thru 84 for those folks.    might be looking at a I 85 south ice and sleet storm.

[mackerel_sky]

What happened to my 33 and rain? Could you please bring it back? It already has been fun to track I was in Charlotte during '88 when 12" fell so I'm pulling for my peeps to my north and west. As for here......watching as the models turn will have me entertained for the next couple of days.

Entertained and with a sore thumb from hitting the delete button so many times! I feel the models' general agreement is good, so this looks pretty scary.as has been said, I don't think today is too early to get some emergency supplies ready if you lived N of a line from your area on up into NC!

[gritsnc]

Wcnc in Charlotte only showed the NAM and GFS on there forecast this morning, they only said Monday night into Tuesday needs to be watched with rain maybe changing to snow. Boy are they playing it conservative, if you're going to show models at least show the euro as well.

 WXII12 showed both models. Of course, viewers are only going to go by the one that showed us getting over 9 inches. It's eeerily dead here at work today with hardly any patients and we're usually busy on Saturday mornings. I wonder if everyone is rushing out to prepare. 

[BIG FROSTY]

Just saw the euro, much less qpf but stays colder looks like all snow per 850 temps.

Yea 00z Euro cut my totals almost jn half from yesterday's 12z went from 1.08qpf down to .59qpf

[Wow]

i think people are saying the NAM caved because of how far south it dropped precip compared to 00z. On the SFC for NC it looks close to the QPF amounts. Would not be shocked to see 12z have a better fetch coming across upper AL,GA etc..

That's where I think this may go... The southern wave has been trending toward a positive axis alignment which will allow the energy to be drawn out. This could end up as a long duration overrunning event rather than a quicker thumping with a consolidated low.

[buckeyefan1]

Entertained and with a sore thumb from hitting the delete button so many times! I feel the models' general agreement is good, so this looks pretty scary.as has been said, I don't think today is too early to get some emergency supplies ready if you lived N of a line from your area on up into NC!

Very true     Hopefully everyone will keep the banter and imby posts where they belong before they end up taking a timeout    

 

 

CAE has added the central midlands to their discussion, but are still saying rain/snow mix   

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM...WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY

WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS FAR AS POPS AND PRECIPITATION.

HOWEVER...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR TUESDAY

THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MODELS DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE LONG TERM BEGINNING TUESDAY.

PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE MAIN

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING INTO THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY AND

BRINGING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR LATE MONDAY

THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN QUESTION CONTINUES TO SURROUND POTENTIAL

FOR WINTRY MIX OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS. THIS

CONTINUES TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. HOWEVER MODEL

SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR MONDAY

NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH HAVE REMAINED WITH THE

WINTRY POTENTIAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL

RUNS.

[franklin NCwx]

Yea 00z Euro cut my totals almost jn half from yesterday's 12z went from 1.08qpf down to .59qpf

I figured it was overdone with dropping over 1" qpf. The Eps increased here to 6.5 that seems like the way to go.