Feb 12-13 Sleet/Snow/ZR Event

[Shawn]

Euro inside day 4 is pretty darn good, the day 3-4 over-running is on every global model now, Euro is most robust though.  The snowfall map on WB is just to crazy to post.

 

That snowfall map; you see the 12 inches or so close to KCAE etc?  Well; that is not snow by any means.  (GSP looks good though).. but anyway.. at least half an inch of ice +.  Probably more.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Keep the ice away from Wilmington. We had enough sleet last week.

[Lookout]

This euro run is just an unbelievable slam to south carolina. The first wave is mostly snow for many along and north of columbia and the second wave is freezing rain and/or sleet. Altogether 1.5 plus inch liquid falls over areas that would be frozen or freezing in south carolina, with one inch plus amounts over the southern half of nc. North ga..this looks like 6 to 10 inches of snow in the mountains then some light freezing rain. The euro has the 0c 850mb isotherm running from blue ridge down to hartwell or there abouts with the first wave with freezing temps at the surface in the far northeast corner then moving southwestward with time. The first wave is just complicated as hell here. Second wave is easily ice.

 

 

It literally could be anything from a lot of snow as heavy precip cools the column for a while to a lot of sleet/freezing rain or even a lot of rain before going to freezing rain for ne ga. No way in hell you could determine it right now for north georgia.

 

A lot easier though in north carolina and south carolina..you get slammed big time by both systems.

[packbacker]

How does the Euro look for the Raleigh area?

 

Verbatim it looks like 5-6" of snow, with 0.5" of ice (sleet/frzn). 

 

CLT looks to be jackpot with snow, 8-10", at least, and then maybe 0.25" of ice.

[GaWx]

How often do we see seven Euro runs in row showing a major winter storm for the SE (4-7 days out)? GFS is now 14 out of 18 with none on last 3.

 

The 0Z Euro suggests to me mainly IP in the ATL-AHN areas for wave 1 2/11 based on 850's near +2/+3. 2nd wave mainly ZR though light ATL-AHN with much heavier C GA with major ZR on 2/12.

[superjames1992]

Well, the Euro cut back on precip here a little, but temperatures look nice for the most part.  That overrunning precip might really deliver, guys...  Interesting.  I'd tend to think that run shows 6"+ SN here.  Can't complain!

 

That's like 42 hours of wintry precip here with temperatures in the 20s for the duration.

[Brick Tamland]

Verbatim it looks like 5-6" of snow, with 0.5" of ice (sleet/frzn). 

 

CLT looks to be jackpot with snow, 8-10", at least, and then maybe 0.25" of ice.

 

Charlotte gets more snow but Raleigh gets more ice. Either one is big and bad with that much snow and ice on top.

[JoshM]

Well, the Euro cut back on precip here a little, but temperatures look nice for the most part.  That overrunning precip might really deliver, guys...  Interesting.  I'd tend to think that run shows 6"+ SN here.  Can't complain!

 

And overrunning usually OVER PERFORMS

[Shawn]

Getting one more thing out of the way for anyone new here etc:

 

The Euro snowfall maps (while they are accurate in certain areas) are generally wrong for many.  especially on the southern areas of precip with their snowfall maps.

 

Here is an example:  Athens GA, (maybe ATL), KCAE (SC) are all freezing rain or IP if they are lucky.

 

The 850mb temps are WAY too warm through some of these areas to produce snow.

 

Take these maps with a grain of salt...

if the surface temp is 32F or lower, and the 850mb temps are +2-3 or higher (or a bit lower even); it is going to melt and turn to sleet or ice all over the place.

 

Weatherbell maps generate precip type based off the 2m temp line.. so if it sees "32F"; it says snow.. regardless of the upper level temps.

[packbacker]

Well, the Euro cut back on precip here a little, but temperatures look nice for the most part.  That overrunning precip might really deliver, guys...  Interesting.  I'd tend to think that run shows 6"+ SN here.  Can't complain!

 

That's like 42 hours of wintry precip here with temperatures in the 20s for the duration.

 

Do you recall the Euro ever losing a storm once it got inside day 3, I mean completely losing it?  I think this run is probably over done, but we are at 84 hours before it starts.  If 12z has it tomorrow we are inside 3 days.  I don't recall tracking a true winter storm with a southern stream, Boxing Day?

[Lookout]

How often do we see seven Euro runs in row showing a major winter storm for the SE (4-7 days out)? GFS is now 14 out of 18 with none on last 3.

 

The 0Z Euro suggests to me mainly IP in the ATL-AHN areas for wave 1 2/11 based on 850's near +2/+3. 2nd wave mainly ZR though light ATL-AHN with much heavier C GA with major ZR on 2/12.

the problem I have with saying there would be a lot of sleet over a large area in north ga  with the first wave is  because the cad isn't there at first.....which means more of a rain vs snow situation since the boundary layer above the surface would not have had time to cool enough for sleet. the cad does increase with time so It really depends on how fast the wedge sets up. It's pretty rare to see such a scenario where it starts as rain then goes to freezing rain and then to sleet but that is what it could be showing for some locals...especially areas like gainesville, maybe north of athens, etc.

 

by the way, the good news is that the euro and really all the models continue to trend colder with the first wave. So things are changing rapidly.

[superjames1992]

And overrunning usually OVER PERFORMS

 

Indeed, it does. 

 

BTW, for Triad area guys, the Euro brings 850s above 0C at hr 108 after 0.6-0.7" QPF have come through.  The highest it gets is 1C, though, so it's pretty close even then.  Then we get some pingers and/or ZR for the remainder of the storm.  All totaled, it's roughly 1" QPF.

[Wow]

How often do we see seven Euro runs in row showing a major winter storm for the SE (4-7 days out)? GFS is now 14 out of 18 with none on last 3.

 

The 0Z Euro suggests to me mainly IP in the ATL-AHN areas for wave 1 2/11 based on 850's near +2/+3. 2nd wave mainly ZR though light ATL-AHN with much heavier C GA with major ZR on 2/12.

 

Euro draws in the first wave of precip to the area by 84 hours.  Not far to go here.

[superjames1992]

Do you recall the Euro ever losing a storm once it got inside day 3, I mean completely losing it?  I think this run is probably over done, but we are at 84 hours before it starts.  If 12z has it tomorrow we are inside 3 days.  I don't recall tracking a true winter storm with a southern stream, Boxing Day?

 

No, I don't.  I think it's time to lock this one up and go all-in.  I can't say what form or fashion this storm will take, but I think almost all of us (NC/upstate SC/NE GA) are getting wintry precip and quite possibly snowfall in upstate SC/NC.

[packbacker]

Snow map kind of looks like this, but not as high as more ice to the NE of I-85 would cut back on totals.

 

[ncskywarn]

Charlotte gets more snow but Raleigh gets more ice. Either one is big and bad with that much snow and ice on top.

Very true I'm just happy it didn't cave to the GFS still a few days to let it work out all the details

[HKY18]

Snow map kind of looks like this, but not as high as more ice to the NE of I-85 would cut back on totals.

 

Yes it does, it was #2 on CIPS analogs yesterday as well.

[deltadog03]

As mentioned before, the EURO is a HUGE hit for many.  Its showing around 34 here with some icing, but with a slight warm bias at 2m I would think that MCN area could get hammered with a hefty ZR storm.  ATL would certainly see some snow to sleet to ZR for sure this run, with a thumping over the upstate into NC

[packbacker]

Yes it does, it was #2 on CIPS analogs yesterday as well.

 

And it's still there on the latest GFS run...

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&fhr=F072&model=GFS212&sort=500HGHT

 

Edit:  In fact the CIPs has a ton of hits, to tired to post.

[BIG FROSTY]

Indeed, it does. 

 

BTW, for Triad area guys, the Euro brings 850s above 0C at hr 108 after 0.6-0.7" QPF have come through.  The highest it gets is 1C, though, so it's pretty close even then.  Then we get some pingers and/or ZR for the remainder of the storm.  All totaled, it's roughly 1" QPF.

Looks like it's cut my qpf quite a bit. 12z give 1.08qpf 00z .59 big cut...

[GaWx]

the problem I have with saying there would be a lot of sleet over a large area in north ga  with the first wave is  because the cad isn't there at first.....which means more of a rain vs snow situation since the boundary layer above the surface would not have had time to cool enough for sleet. the cad does increase with time so It really depends on how fast the wedge sets up. It's pretty rare to see such a scenario where it starts as rain then goes to freezing rain and then to sleet but that is what it could be showing for some locals...especially areas like gainesville, maybe north of athens, etc.

 

by the way, the good news is that the euro and really all the models continue to trend colder with the first wave. So things are changing rapidly.

 

I follow you and agree. Mon. night is mainly cold rain verbatim. After 12Z Tue, the CAD comes in hard and changes it to mainly IP imo but maybe ZR first. Keep in mind that the Euro may be lagging the sfc cold once CAD gets going ~12Z Tue. I think the 32 sfcis all the way to ATL before 18Z per this run.

[deltadog03]

Larry, Lookout, it appears that us here in mid GA could get hammered with ZR fest.  I know it shows 34 verbatim, but have to think with a wedge that stout it could/should be even colder?

[superjames1992]

Looks like it's cut my qpf quite a bit. 12z give 1.08qpf 00z .59 big cut...

 

Yeah, but I wouldn't worry about it too much at this point.  I think this storm is going to happen, but the details on QPF placement are going to change.  Even so, we're both looking good for snowfall.  One could argue that overrunning could even spread further north and overperform, but we'll see.  There was definitely a tendency for southern stream systems to come in juicier than expected over the fall last year.  Maybe we'll get that again.

 

The Canadian still showed a ton of precip up there.

 

One thing to note is that this is a "cold storm" for a lot of us in the CAD regions.  Temperatures in the mid to upper 20s will really help with SN/IP/ZR accumulations.  It's not as cold as the storm a couple weeks ago, but it's still colder than our typical marginal event.

[Shawn]

the problem I have with saying there would be a lot of sleet over a large area in north ga  with the first wave is  because the cad isn't there at first.....which means more of a rain vs snow situation since the boundary layer above the surface would not have had time to cool enough for sleet. the cad does increase with time so It really depends on how fast the wedge sets up. It's pretty rare to see such a scenario where it starts as rain then goes to freezing rain and then to sleet but that is what it could be showing for some locals...especially areas like gainesville, maybe north of athens, etc.

 

by the way, the good news is that the euro and really all the models continue to trend colder with the first wave. So things are changing rapidly.

 

Wouldnt that first wave begin to sag southward with precip if it gets much colder though?  Or would the precip just have to overcome a drier air mass? 

[deltadog03]

From what I can tell, we get about 1.10" QPF with temps running 33-35 from 6z wed to 00z Thur

[BullCityWx]

This looks so much like 88 but with a weaker high to the north.

[GaWx]

Larry, Lookout, it appears that us here in mid GA could get hammered with ZR fest.  I know it shows 34 verbatim, but have to think with a wedge that stout it could/should be even colder?

 

Per 0Z Euro, I think you'd be ~30-31 with ZR from the end of the 1st wave Tue PM and then 28-30 and heavier ZR from wave #2 Wed AM.

[BIG FROSTY]

Yeah, but I wouldn't worry about it too much at this point.  I think this storm is going to happen, but the details on QPF placement are going to change.  Even so, we're both looking good for snowfall.  One could argue that overrunning could even spread further north and overperform, but we'll see.  There was definitely a tendency for southern stream systems to come in juicier than expected over the fall last year.  Maybe we'll get that again.

 

One thing to note is that this is a "cold storm" for a lot of us in the CAD regions.  Temperatures in the mid to upper 20s will really help with SN/IP/ZR accumulations.

True that, only time  850 went above  0.5  briefly

[Shawn]

From what I can tell, we get about 1.10" QPF with temps running 33-35 from 6z wed to 00z Thur

 

I don't envy you for your local market.  What would you say this far out?  I mean this is to the point where it could be life threatening for some of the ice areas....   otherwise.. if the EPS members are over 35 members for KCAE .. showing Wintry Weather.. I'm off to the kerosene tank store.

 

This is really pretty nuts how the modeling is doing.  The last snow event some of us saw.. the Euro OP lost the deal a few times, got it back a few times, and then ultimately the EPS took over and Larry made a thread just because of their support.

 

Now, the Euro OP and looks to be the EPS are going to be locked in on this with the GFS a bit on the outside (but trending) and the GGEM trying to lock in on the Euro for the major ice into SC at least.

 

I feel like this has a 75% chance to verify winter weather AT LEAST as far south as ATL & Newberry SC

[Wow]

This looks so much like 88 but with a weaker high to the north.

 

Yeah, my last double digit snow event. The Jan 87 storm was my last foot.  Curious to know how expansive the snowpack was back then in 88.