Wow Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Need to look at the precip totals but looks like a big snow for W NC north of 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Man, I really don't want this? Where is Tony to trade me this ZR for Snow or something? Thanks Larry, I see that now. I almost feel sick. You guys don't understand. I live in a civil war house with huge trees (150 yrs old+), no generator, no insulation, wide open fields to not block wind. and its just not good. Anyway; sob story over... this is definitely going in line down into sc as the euro has been going along with it's EPS members. Atlanta could be in play here too. GSP looks to be a raging sleet/ice/snow storm. Per 00z GGEM that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wow, on 08 Feb 2014 - 12:24 AM, said:Need to look at the precip totals but looks like a big snow for W NC north of 85 Looks like 4-6" for most of W NC with a max into south C VA around 8". 850s do support snow in W NC, but once you get away from the mountains it'll be mixed or will change over rather quickly.. Here's a little snippet, but mods can remove if necessary because I'm not sure of the policies anymore: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Need to look at the precip totals but looks like a big snow for W NC north of 85 snow (both events btw) quite a sleet/ice storm for ga/sc..and nc too after the snow. Interesting that ground zero for freezing rain would be almost to macon to augusta to columbia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Lookout, I'm going to message you something in a second. Also guys; looking closer.. KCAE is around 30 degrees at the heart of the icing event. Maybe latent heat can help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 If the 0z CMC is correct, looks like those NW of Atlanta get spared of the major ZR. I think we're gonna have a tough time in this area getting cold enough for significant ZR. To be honest I would mind seeing some ZR, can't remember the last time we had a decent ice storm. I don't want power outages or any of that, just a nice glaze to make things look pretty and close school again haha. We'll see what the Euro says here in an hour or so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Whoah! That looks like a lot of snow with ice on top for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 If the 0z CMC is correct, looks like those NW of Atlanta get spared of the major ZR. I think we're gonna have a tough time in this area getting cold enough for significant ZR. To be honest I would mind seeing some ZR, can't remember the last time we had a decent ice storm. I don't want power outages or any of that, just a nice glaze to make things look pretty and close school again haha. We'll see what the Euro says here in an hour or so! I'm not sure how far northwest you are talking about but it would be pretty rare for areas like macon and south of augusta to get freezing rain, much less major freezing rain accumulations with a CAD event and north or just northwest of atlanta would not. . So I think it would if this solution verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 If the 0z CMC is correct, looks like those NW of Atlanta get spared of the major ZR. I think we're gonna have a tough time in this area getting cold enough for significant ZR. To be honest I would mind seeing some ZR, can't remember the last time we had a decent ice storm. I don't want power outages or any of that, just a nice glaze to make things look pretty and close school again haha. We'll see what the Euro says here in an hour or so! I believe 1/4 of an inch can add 500lbs of weight between power poles on the lines. Please correct me if I'm wrong on this.. (plus i think it depends on location/rural?) 1/4 inch minor power outages to widespread/spotty > .50 major outages > 1.00 + should pretty much be destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Lookout, I'm going to message you something in a second. Also guys; looking closer.. KCAE is around 30 degrees at the heart of the icing event. Maybe latent heat can help? If you get to 30 or even 31 with 1.25" of ZR as shown, you'll very likely have no help from latent heat and it would be severe. Also, if anything, the model may very well still be too warm still with that setup imo regardless. 30-31 degree ZR storms shouldn't be belittled as I've seen some do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Man, the 00z UKMET shows an absolute bomb with no Great Lakes low to be found. It's at 992 mb off of Cape Cod at hr 144. Huge change from 12z, when it went OTS. I don't have precip or temperature maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 If you get to 30 or even 31 with 1.25" of ZR as shown, you'll very likely have no help from latent heat and it would be severe. Also, if anything, the model may very well still be too warm still with that setup imo regardless. Thanks Larry. Yeah. I've had a bad feeling all year of a potential ice storm.. and as we get closer the GGEM isn't a "fantasy storm" anymore.. as its just now trying to grab onto the Euro deal. This could be really bad for GA too... 20 mm is 0.7 inches and the red/orange colors are between 0.98- 1.18 inches of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I believe 1/4 of an inch can add 500lbs of weight between power poles on the lines. Please correct me if I'm wrong on this.. (plus i think it depends on location/rural?) 1/4 inch minor power outages to widespread/spotty > .50 major outages > 1.00 + should pretty much be destruction. I googled it and I saw one site that said .25 equals 500 extra pounds and one that said it's more around .50 before you get to that level of added weight. But yeah, anything over .25 sounds dangerous. Once you get over .50 you're looking at a BAD situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I googled it and I saw one site that said .25 equals 500 extra pounds and one that said it's more around .50 before you get to that level of added weight. But yeah, anything over .25 sounds dangerous. Once you get over .50 you're looking at a BAD situation. I know down here in the "country" power poles in some spots will be really close to each other.. and then areas will be way further apart. So I guess it really just depends on where you live. It seems like the mountain type areas would have the most distance between poles though. Can anyone chime in on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'm not sure how far northwest you are talking about but it would be pretty rare for areas like macon and south of augusta to get freezing rain, much less major freezing rain accumulations with a CAD event and north or just northwest of atlanta would not. . So I think it would if this solution verified. With a setup like this, it isn't far from ATL-AHN getting mainly IP, especially with ZR that far south. I look for 850's mainly in the +1 to +3 range for IP. This could be like PD1 or 1/88. The 0Z Euro did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 If the ice happens we here in lexington/kcae get sustained winds of 12-17+mph (im sure higher gusts) to go along with the heavier ice. Never good: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 With a setup like this, it isn't far from ATL-AHN getting mainly IP, especially with ZR that far south. I look for 850's mainly in the +1 to +3 range for IP. This could be like PD1 or 1/88. The 0Z Euro did that. From my maps; it looks like Athens/Lookout could possibly be around 3c by the end of the heaviest precip. I hope you're right about more IP for those over there. If +3 can produce IP; that's awesome and I just learned something. That has something to do with the depth of the shallow cold layer due to CAD being thick yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'll take this look anytime! 00z CMC hour 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I'll take this look anytime! 00z CMC hour 120 Can I come stay in your outhouse/guest room until its over in my area close to columbia? Please? Lol j/k. I wish I was up that way though. you guys look great for snow on a lot of modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 From my maps; it looks like Athens/Lookout could possibly be around 3c by the end of the heaviest precip. I hope you're right about more IP for those over there. If +3 can produce IP; that's awesome and I just learned something. That has something to do with the depth of the shallow cold layer due to CAD being thick yes? +3 C seems to be on the border between IP and ZR per history. Yes, thick cad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Can I come stay in your outhouse/guest room until its over in my area close to columbia? Please? Lol j/k. I wish I was up that way though. you guys look great for snow on a lot of modeling. Yeah just hope it holds? Been let down a lot last few years with models, I don't trust them anymore till I see it falling from the sky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Yeah just hope it holds? Been let down a lot last few years with models, I don't trust them anymore till I see it falling from the sky! Well if I knew your closest major stationid i'd count you members from the 12z Euro EPS for "winter weather".. I think I still have time to grab them real fast if you'd like. 00z OP run shouldn't overwrite the old EPS data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Well if I knew your closest major stationid i'd count you members from the 12z Euro EPS for "winter weather".. I think I still have time to grab them real fast if you'd like. 00z OP run shouldn't overwrite the old EPS data. mwk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 With a setup like this, it isn't far from ATL-AHN getting mainly IP, especially with ZR that far south. I look for 850's mainly in the +1 to +3 range for IP. This could be like PD1 or 1/88. The 0Z Euro did that. but how far west would the freezing rain be ? Atlanta and points west into east Alabama are usually right on the edge between rain and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Euro looks really good with the day 3-4 overrunning. Looks like GSP/CLT are 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 0Z Euro: big mess on Tue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The euro has come in colder and wetter with the first wave. Even snow and sleet/freezing rain into northeast ga tues. very nice hit (mostly snow) for the upstate into southern nc. this is actually a big snow for the mountains of north ga and very very close to something special even for the gainesville to even athens areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 mwk Wow almost every member of the Euro EPS hits you hard. I sent you a message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wow at Euro, GSP getting crushed on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wow almost every member of the Euro EPS hits you hard. I sent you a message. Thanks a bunch!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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