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Feb 12-13 Sleet/Snow/ZR Event


JoshM

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You should see the JMA, shows 2-4" of snow for west TN through 72 and it would look like that would fill in east to NC/SC/GA through 96 hours.  I would post but not sure if AmericanWx would allow there maps to be posted since they are paid maps.

 

you're welcome to paste it :)

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Temps scare me more than anything. Both local stations in upstate, and TWC say either rain or zr for upstate. No mention of snow at all. At this time, our lowest forecast temp for the event is 32, which usually spells bad news for winter  weather in these parts. I have seen many systems come through with temps forecast for 31-32 and it never gets below 34. End result is you get either cold rain or something that never accumulates. Definitely need this to bring some lower surface temps.

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GGEM looks the same for the overrunning as the GFS, maybe has the heavier precip a little further south, but nice to see models agreeing on someone getting some early snow on Tuesday.

EDIT: NVM about that request.  Don't wanna ask IMBY.

 

I see the system on the low res maps trying to get going in the Gulf.. not sure about precip yet... but it looks to nail the NE possibly... maybe NY is at the heart?

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Not a super fan of the CMC, but I will say its cold for mid and NGA.  Coldest (besides euro) of the models.  would put down some good ZR over NGA and into the Upstate.  Not as wet as the euro, but MUCH better than GFS

 

which also tells me the GFS is likely wrong with its solution right now.

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EDIT: NVM about that request.  Don't wanna ask IMBY.

 

I see the system on the low res maps trying to get going in the Gulf.. not sure about precip yet... but it looks to nail the NE possibly... maybe NY is at the heart?

 

I can't tell on the maps I have, to coarse, but looks like it's just south of NC/SC border.  The 2nd storm looks weaker/slower but again, my maps are not that great, need better maps which will be out soon.

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I can't tell on the maps I have, to coarse, but looks like it's just south of NC/SC border.  The 2nd storm looks weaker/slower but again, my maps are not that great, need better maps which will be out soon.

 

Oh okay.  I thought you were viewing HQ maps.  I absolutely hate the black and white charts if that's what you see.  And thanks James.  that's a bit strange that both the GFS and now as you say the GGEM may be slower w/ the gulf system.  It's changes like that.... that can make or break the system for many.

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Still looks very icy from the coarse maps I have, looks like it held.

 

Yeah, at hr 120 on the 00z GGEM, the HP appears to be 200+ miles SW of its position at hr 132 on the 12z run and also 4 mb stronger.  Of course, the Gulf Low is a little slower, too.

 

Yeah, that French site is good for seeing the maps the quickest, though the maps suck, haha.  Meteocentre has the "classic" maps out now, but I'm still waiting on precip maps.

 

EDIT: Precip maps are out.  Good hit with the overrunning.  Nice event.  The "main event" is a big hit.  Not sure on P-type, but it's a lot of precip and presumably frozen for at least the CAD regions.

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SC is pretty much shut out on the coarse GGEM maps for the overrunning event.  Even the upstate.  850s are like "hello, we will just sit on the NC/SC border and just stay away!"

 

 

EDIT:

Further on for the main deal.. it looks like a LOT of SC ends up ice per horrible maps.  Will wait for better quality maps to actually post amoutns etc if it is indeed cold enough for ice.

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 I just looked at the coarse GGEM maps. They have, verbatim major ZR for much of the ATL-AHN corridor on Wednesday afternoon and night into Thursday. So, they appear to be colder than earlier runs. You can see the 32 line wedging in strongly al the way over to ATL with steady precip..

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 I just looked at the coarse GGEM maps. They have, verbatim major ZR for much of the ATL-AHN corridor on Wednesday afternoon and night into Thursday. So, they appear to be colder than earlier runs. You can see the 32 line wedging in strongly al the way over to ATL with steady precip..

 

Yeah, looks like a pretty crazy ice storm the areas, to bad that the storm doesn't move in sooner, well assuming you like ice.

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 I just looked at the coarse GGEM maps. They have, verbatim major ZR for much of the ATL-AHN corridor on Wednesday afternoon and night into Thursday. So, they appear to be colder than earlier runs. You can see the 32 line wedging in strongly al the way over to ATL with steady precip..

Looks like around an inch liquid falls.

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My maps have finally loaded for the cmc and they're showing a major ice storm.

 

Pack, that would be a major ip or zr storm for our area.

 

Yeah, compare it to the 12z run, much stronger HP with 0z run and in a better spot and precip gets here sooner...

 

0z at hour 120

 

PT_PN_120_0000.gif

 

 

12z run at 132...

 

PT_PN_132_0000.gif

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