BIG FROSTY Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 18z is dumpster fire bad looking. That energy in the south looks horrid. Just hope the EURO don't end up caving to the GFS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GFS looks even weaker with the s/w. Hardly even a low registering in the gulf by 108. Just can seems to shake off that old MRF bias. Lol, it's a lot colder though! The midwest LOW is much further west....the storm still just looks like crud though, like you said. I have no idea what's going to happen next week. Nothing wouldn't suprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I don't even know where to start...I'll just agree w/ burger! Edit: Finally fires something up at 141 but by that time our cold is long gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 You might take this as wish casting but the gfs will squash the shortwaves often in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 have heard the gfs always has trouble about now and usually will come around to the euro. just a messenger don't know for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I don't even know where to start...I'll just agree w/ burger! Edit: Finally fires something up at 141 but by that time our cold is long gone. It phases with the northern energy and runs inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Now now, lets not only tell half the story. There's no way most of NC gets snow from the currently modeled setup and he knows that. Same WxSouth post, "That dotted blue zone is the rough guide for snow to sleet transition. A very rough guide. Many times in this setup, the snow line will be further north of that line, thanks to warm nose aloft, but we'll worry about that later" read where there is no warm nose around in this setup for nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Lol, it's a lot colder though! The midwest LOW is much further west....the storm still just looks like crud though, like you said. I have no idea what's going to happen next week. Nothing wouldn't suprise me. Colder and low over lakes being way west , would be good trends. Precip will be there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GFS looks even weaker with the s/w. Hardly even a low registering in the gulf by 108. Just can seems to shake off that old MRF bias. The GFS's handling of true southern stream waves like this may be the biggest flaw of any model as it relates to winter weather in the southeast. Having said that, the Pacific flow is fast, so it may not be as far off in this case. Not much wiggle room with the cold air for a storm that has 4 days to creep north and trend warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yeah, broke out the old plymouth maps to show pressures at 1mb contour intervals. If this storm can move in a few hours earlier where the HP is positioned at 120, we'd all be digging out. And you know, overrunning typically arrives early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Considering all the times we have to put up with cold chasing moisture here in the good old Southeast, isn't it nice to have one event where it looks like the moisture will be chasing the cold. Of course, at least precip wise, the result will probably end up the same, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 And you know, overrunning typically arrives early. Yeah.. I like where we sit right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yeah.. I like where we sit right now. Could not agree more. I don't get all the negativity today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The GFS is probably too slow getting the entire thing going, hence if the event does come to fruition I'd expect its going to organize and come up the coast faster than the GFS and probably even the Euro currently suggest amd hence there would be a better air mass in place. This sounds like a good thing for everyone on the east coast hoping for snowier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The GFS's handling of true southern stream waves like this may be the biggest flaw of any model as it relates to winter weather in the southeast. Having said that, the Pacific flow is fast, so it may not be as far off in this case. Not much wiggle room with the cold air for a storm that has 4 days to creep north and trend warmer True, but if the Baffin ridge, as Robert has been mentioning, does evolve it will allow the storm track to slow down and build our CAD. The analogs back this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Could not agree more. I don't get all the negativity today. Exactly... if the 18z was snowing a SE snowstorm people would say "Oh that's the 18z, pay no attention" IMO the GFS will start coming around tomorrow night or Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The DGEX is a complete whiff for everybody. On a good note, the 18z NAVGEM is a big hit , decent hit, for most people Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/431913053215395840 Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/ TWCNews_CLTWX/status/431912436816281600 Meet in the middle? Perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The DGEX is a complete whiff for everybody. On a good note, the 18z NAVGEM is a big hit , decent hit, for most people Tuesday night. I don't get where all this "everyone" talk comes from when clearly even the Navy model could be ice for areas of GA & SC.. just glancing over. 850s suck in the Midlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It is always pins and needles with a few grenades around here. Could not agree more. I don't get all the negativity today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I don't get where all this "everyone" talk comes from when clearly even the Navy model could be ice for areas of GA & SC.. just glancing over. 850s suck in the Midlands. I guess I have always counted a “hit” as anything wintry, whether it be snow,sleet, or freezing rain. IMO, Beggars can’t be choosers in the Southeast. FWIW, here is wpc’s take. It looks like they are predicting the perfect setup at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 read where there is no warm nose around in this setup for nc Are you saying you read that somewhere? How on earth would someone know that this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I guess I have always counted a “hit” as anything wintry, whether it be snow,sleet, or freezing rain. IMO, Beggars can’t be choosers in the Southeast. FWIW, here is hpc’s take. It looks like they are predicting the perfect setup at the moment. Interesting look from the HPC. KCAE is trying to mention stuff around now.. for some reason they are saying rain/snow which is hilarious.. maybe in the far northern counties if lucky as currently modeled. Back to the HPC thing.. isn't that high pretty weak for the big Euro look before 12z? I'd rather end up cold rain here.. a hit of freezing rain is not what I want; at all. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 DGEX is a nice hit for NC day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Are you saying you read that somewhere? How on earth would someone know that this far out? read where there is no warm nose around in this setup for nc There's always a warm nose at some point location with CAD. Nobody knows where this will be for sure right now, I'm sure most locations in NC will deal with a warm nose at some point actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 There's always a warm nose at some point location with CAD. Nobody knows where this will be for sure right now, I'm sure most locations in NC will deal with a warm nose at some point actually. I mean, I've seen it on the GFS in multiple locations across NC on yesterday's runs, not so much today because the ground temps are even worse so it's not even cold enough on the ground to allow a warm nose. Someone, somewhere, will get the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 NAVGEM is a very nice snowfall day 4+ for NC, that is definitely trending nicely on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 DGEX has a shower of disorganized vorts ahead of the primary vortmax... it's just as confused as the gfs. It pulls out more energy for the overrunning event and whiffs the primary event. Still looks to put down several inches across NC during the overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Updated tally for 2/11-13:: 6 Euro runs in a row with a sig. wintry hit; 14 of the last 17 GFS runs with a sig. hit but no hit the last 2 Edit: several Uncles in a row with a sig. hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Are you saying you read that somewhere? How on earth would someone know that this far out? just a messenger of one or two of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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