BIG FROSTY Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I don't see anything wrong with this map hour 96 12z CMC other hours before and after look good also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GFS losing the storm worries me. EURO holds serve or not, I'd like to see GFS stop developing that huge midwest low that junks everything up. HPC seems to not buy into that storm but I don't know. Not good trends so far today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Brad P just had a great blog post on the upcoming storm. This is the best quote that a lot of people should take to heart: Also, there will be lots of rumors and hype about 1 foot of snow, or a crippling ice storm etc… I can tell you just today one model had 13″ of snow over Charlotte, but the likely hood of 0″ is just as likely. So don’t believe the hype of mega storm or the doubters of no storm. The most likely outcome is always somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Raleigh is the only location available for this graphic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cigrgd Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 0Z ECMWF snowfall map basically gives us the Feb. 17-19, 1979 storm. Who remembers that one? http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/snow/nesis/19790217-19790219-4.77.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12z Canadian overall a little less wintry at RDU than the 0z run. 00z run had around 6-7 inches of snow, a lot of sleet and a little freezin grain, no regular rain. 12z has around 4 inches of snow, around 0.5 inch of freezing rain, a little sleet, and probably 0.6 inches of so of rain per the meteograms from the UQAM site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Actually, looking back, you're right. The Euro definitely got really close for the Triad area, for example, at hr 138, but by hr 144 (on last night's run), it was easily cold enough again (same thing for CLT). Interesting. That's due to the increase in precip rates I'd bet. 850 temps are very marginal over most of the I-85 corridor and when the big slug of precip pushes in, the 850 temps cool a bit to pull it below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 As I have mentioned before, keep in mind the key energy wont even be on shore till Sunday so expect more flips and flops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The UKMET is OTS and probably misses us (not sure with precip maps), but this does play into its bias, I believe. Hr 120: http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Hr 144: http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif The GL low is there, but quite a bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 CMC and UKMET seem to be way west with the northern no snow low; which is good. However today it seems they've trended our southern storm weaker and not as amped anyway it seems. Not so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12z Canadian snow forecast with the leading overrunning band on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Any report on the 12z GEFS to look for trends or differences from that weird op run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12z Canadian snow forecast with the leading overrunning band on Tuesday.sharp gradient there. No snow in Charlotte ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12z Canadian snow forecast with the leading overrunning band on Tuesday. Thanks for the maps Allan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12z Canadian total freezing rain through 7am Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12z Euro; high not as strong/cold hour 102. Typical weakening of high as get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Not really weaker, just farther east compared to 0z... but also faster with the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 12z Euro; high not as strong/cold hour 102. Typical weakening of high as get closer Looking pretty good at 120...1034 high and looking like a good wedge setting up. Hopefully the high will hold and not slide east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 12z Euro is colder and further south with the day 4 overrunning event (compared to the 00z run) and presumably drops some snow across the northern half of NC from it. It's nowhere near as prolific as the GGEM, though. The high might be a little weaker (at least it's 2 mb weaker at hr 96, though the maps aren't out past there for me yet), but we don't need a 1037 mb HP to get it done, at least in the upper CAD regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I think it's going to hang on to a big hit HP moving slow should help keep it inland. good overrunning. huge hit strong damming high 1036 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's abotu 6 hours faster with everything really.. the precip and the high pressure position. So it's actually quite similar to the 0z if you shift back by 6 hrs. Big snow thump for W NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Big hit for W. NC on the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 More icy than snow this run for NC, mountains may still get a good deal of snow, but looks like in general from looking at 850s, 2mT, and QPF some snow to ice event for many. Wedge is locked in at hour 126 although not as strong as 00z run. Still significant frozen/freezing precip for CLT/RDU through hour 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 looks like maybe close to a foot nw nc somebody going have a lot of sleet south and east of the heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 More icy than snow this run for NC, mountains may still get a good deal of snow, but looks like in general from looking at 850s, 2mT, and QPF some snow to ice event for many. Wedge is locked in at hour 126 although not as strong as 00z run. Still significant frozen/freezing precip for CLT/RDU through hour 126. It looks to be very close for RDU. Wouldn't a track a little more east help us out or would it still be a zr situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looks like Charlotte stays at or below freezing whole event. RDU goes above at hour 132, but not sure how much of QPF between 126-132 falls at or below freezing. RDU back to freezing at 132 as low pulls away. Again, right now,dont get lost in details of rain/ice/snow line 120-144 hours out. Bottom line Canadian/ECMWF still have event, more GFS ENS members then not have the event, when compared to odd 12z op GFS run. Trend today in 12z guidance has been for the parent high to be a little weaker and move out a little faster. However, the wedge is locked in very nicely with diabatic processes (hybrid CAD) and while the eastern fringes of the wedge may changeover at some point (RDU) even they would still get a significant winter storm. Plenty more cycles and oscillations to come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Euro finally got warmer and much less ice.. if any at all for KCAE; Thankfully. Many in NC are showing a big ice storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 CLT looks to get crushed, along with everyone west of I-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well I think the trend so far today is for the PV to slide SE therefore shifting hour high east also. Credit for this goes to HM due to he mentioned it in the MA forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looks like Charlotte stays at or below freezing whole event. RDU goes above at hour 132, but not sure how much of QPF between 126-132 falls at or below freezing. RDU back to freezing at 132 as low pulls away. Again, right now,dont get lost in details of rain/ice/snow line 120-144 hours out. Bottom line Canadian/ECMWF still have event, more GFS ENS members then not have the event, when compared to odd 12z op GFS run. Trend today in 12z guidance has been for the parent high to be a little weaker and move out a little faster. However, the wedge is locked in very nicely with diabatic processes (hybrid CAD) and while the eastern fringes of the wedge may changeover at some point (RDU) even they would still get a significant winter storm. Plenty more cycles and oscillations to come! Thanks for the time & the pbp Allen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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