buckeyefan1 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Dont ever try and hail a cab in San Francisco when it's raining . One thing I saw about the moisture fetch was in GSP's discussion this morning which mentioned the storm, as modeled on the euro, is showing a deep moisture fetch which none of our events this year has had. Moisture won't be an issue, but where the ever elusive high locks in, and whether or not we have a pesky low in the lakes region will be the deciding factor of what form of frozen precipitation falls and how far south it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Could some one be kind and give some insight on eastern nc for this event... I respect all of you and I'm not trying to be a pain its just a little hard sometimes trying to figure out what's going on here when so much is going on... thanks for all the time and effort everyone gives to the board. I dont believe this will be your storm if you're that far east. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Does anyone mind giving a quick report on the Euro Ensembles? Are they similar to the op or the previous EPS? Thanks! Comparing 12z to today's 00z, they are essentially the same so no significant changes. Mean is pretty good this far out and I'd say it supports a decent chance. Now whether or not WxBell is seeing snow where there's IP I'm not sure, temps are borderline, but FWIW... KRDU means are around the same, 5.5-5.7" New 00z 8/51 members are 9"+ 30/51 have 2-8" 3 have no snow 12z yesterday 12/51 members were 9"+ 28/51 have 2-8" all members had snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Comparing 12z to today's 00z, they are essentially the same so no significant changes. Mean is pretty good this far out and I'd say it supports a decent chance. Now whether or not WxBell is seeing snow where there's IP I'm not sure, temps are borderline, but FWIW... KRDU means are around the same, 5.5-5.7" New 00z 8/51 members are 9"+ 30/51 have 2-8" 3 have no snow 12z yesterday 12/51 members were 9"+ 28/51 have 2-8" all members had snow Thanks Jon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The moisture fetch was also addressed in the Video posted above that was created by wxsouth. Dont ever try and hail a cab in San Francisco when it's raining . One thing I saw about the moisture fetch was in GSP's discussion this morning which mentioned the storm, as modeled on the euro, is showing a deep moisture fetch which none of our events this year has had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Comparing 12z to today's 00z, they are essentially the same so no significant changes. Mean is pretty good this far out and I'd say it supports a decent chance. Now whether or not WxBell is seeing snow where there's IP I'm not sure, temps are borderline, but FWIW... KRDU means are around the same, 5.5-5.7" New 00z 8/51 members are 9"+ 30/51 have 2-8" 3 have no snow 12z yesterday 12/51 members were 9"+ 28/51 have 2-8" all members had snow According to Ryan, those ensemble members don't factor in upper air temps. He said you need to look at QPF and then 850's and surface temps to be accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The initial wave has 2m problems all over it on 12z GFS. Edit, no ice in SC for the most part. Looks warm in NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 According to Ryan, those ensemble members don't factor in upper air temps. He said you need to look at QPF and then 850's and surface temps to be accurate. So basically I need to look at soundings for the individual ensemble members? That sounds fun. Either way, the snowfall outputs are FWIW...definitely still good at detecting trends, this is quite the marginal system as far as temps go. Doubtful any of those members are all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Fairly bad trends on the GFS, but it's the GFS... 0z GFS run from Thursday (36 hours ago) has nice CAD look 12z GFS run that is just coming out for day 5, doesn't have good CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 At 120, confluence leaving, high departing, 850s retreating, moisture incoming. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GFS is in its usual weird timeframe IMO. The fact that its showing something should go to show us that this threat is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The GFS is different every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Good grief, look at the huge low over MN, that's going to shove any HP out of the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Good grief, look at the huge low over MN, that's going to shove any HP out of the way... Is there anyway we can switch the MN low with the 1011 low in the gulf? I'm pretty positive that the GL low will be there. Was it modeled to be this strong on earlier runs? Why doesn't it fizzle out as it moves across the northern tier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 ...MODEL PREFERENCES AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/N. CA/ N. ROCKIES...PREFER A SOLUTIONCLOSEST TO THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT AVERAGES THEFASTER/STRONGER 00Z GFS WITH THE SLOWER 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF. THESOLUTION SPREAD IS UNUSUALLY HIGH FOR JUST A DAY 3/4FORECAST...BUT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE UPPERCYCLONE OFFSHORE WILL ERODE. HEAVY LOWER ELEVATION RAINS ANDHIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION BY NEXT TUESDAY.AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES...ANOTHERSURGE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN TO THE REGION BY DAY7/FRI...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SUBSEQUENT EVENT MAYINFLUENCE AREAS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH. AGAIN...RELIED UPONTHE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS TO ADDRESS THE SPREAD LARGELYREPRESENTED BY THE FASTER/STRONGER 00Z GFS ON ONE END WITH THESLOWER 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ON THE OTHER.ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST...USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GLOBALENSEMBLE MEANS AS A WHOLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MANUAL ADJUSTMENTSLATER IN THE PERIOD THAT INDICATES LITTLE OR NO CONFIDENCE INMODEL DETAILS. FOR DAY 3/MON...PREFER THE WEAKER 00Z ECMWF/00ZECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COASTVERSUS THE STRONGER AND SEEMINGLY UNLIKELY 06Z GEFS MEAN GIVENPERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY LIGHTSNOWS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...RAIN WITH SOMEMIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS ANDLOWER MS VALLEY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THEREGION...BEFORE POSSIBLY EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE EAST COASTLATER IN THE PERIOD AS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS APPROACH FROM THE WEST ANDPOSSIBLY INTERACT WITH IT. BY DAY 6/THU...THE 00Z ECMWF LIES NEARTHE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A SERIES OF LOWS DEEPENINGNEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE MOVING TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BYDAY 7/FRI. THE 06Z GFS DEVELOPS THE INITIAL LOW FARTHER SOUTHCLOSER TO THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT EVENTUALLY JOINS THE ECMWFOVER THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THESE SOLUTIONSREQUIRES VERY COMPLICATED AND PERFECTLY-TIMED INTERACTIONS WITHMULTIPLE SYSTEMS...THAT WHILE PLAUSIBLE...CONTAIN SUCH LOWCONFIDENCE THAT WILL DOWNPLAY THEM SIGNIFICANTLY.INSTEAD...PREFER TO EMPHASIZE THE SOUTHERN STREAM THAT ALLOWS FORLESS NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION. IN TURN...THIS RESULTSIN A LESS IMPACTFUL NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREATLAKES AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND TO REMAIN MOREANCHORED IN PLACE THAN DEPICTED BY CURRENT GUIDANCE THAT WOULDPREVENT THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW FROM MOVING SO FAR NORTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I looked back at the 6z GFS. I'll post the image from the same time as the one packbacker posted. The GL low was about 150 miles further north and 4mb weaker on the 6z. Also, it appears that the Bafflin ridge that Robert was talking about is broken down in on the 12z which allows the northern low to track further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GFS may be falling into its classic bias of overplaying the northern stream. Here, it quickly phases in with the trailing southern wave behind our storm and blows up a big low over the lakes, and fizzles out our southern short wave. The 0z Euro meanwhile keeps the pieces of energy apart where by 0z Feb 13, it has several weak low pressure centers associated with each separate piece of energy moving through... and maintains our southern s/w with CAD in place. As long as our system continues to hold its own, the won't be a deep Great Lakes low to contend with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I looked back at the 6z GFS. I'll post the image from the same time as the one packbacker posted. The GL low was about 150 miles further north and 4mb weaker on the 6z. Also, it appears that the Bafflin ridge that Robert was talking about is broken down in on the 12z which allows the northern low to track further east.I have not seen the 12z gfs due to being in a meeting but noticed on earlier runs that the gfs was the strongest with that low over the lakes. The euro had it later and not as well defined. I'm not sure which is correct but I believe the cmc leans towards the euro on this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 ...MODEL PREFERENCES AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... . IN TURN...THIS RESULTS IN A LESS IMPACTFUL NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND TO REMAIN MORE ANCHORED IN PLACE THAN DEPICTED BY CURRENT GUIDANCE THAT WOULD PREVENT THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW FROM MOVING SO FAR NORTH. I'm interpreting this is good, with no lakes low? Or would the less interaction make more of a petered out supressed southern system that the last two GFS runs showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 UK... 12z UK at day 5 compared to the 0z UK at day 6…Bottom picture is Thursday at 12z (0z UK) and top picture is at Wed 12z (12z UK). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm interpreting this is good, with no lakes low? Or would the less interaction make more of a petered out supressed southern system that the last two GFS runs showed? Looks like our battle ground will be over the Great Lakes, rather than the Gulf this time. Your interpretation would be correct. No GL low, or one that isn't strong enough to bump the high, gives us colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The Canadian appears to be a solid thump, though the HP does move out a little faster than last night and it's probably somewhat warmer. Waiting on precip maps... The surface low tracks from south of New Orleans to Jacksonville to 100 miles east of Morehead City by hr 144. Pretty good track with the low, at least. It deepens to 1006 mb as it is passing NC. EDIT: Precip maps are out and there's a nasty precip cutoff somewhere around the I-85 to I-77 corridors in NC. Up near Mt. Airy, for example, probably hardly gets anything. Plenty of precip east of there, though, and I wouldn't worry about that too much at this point. Still waiting on temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm betting the canadian, given the track, is going to be a solid snow hit for most of NC. Like james said, waiting on the precip type maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The Canadian appears to be a solid thump, though the HP does move out a little faster than last night and it's probably somewhat warmer. Waiting on precip maps... The surface low tracks from south of New Orleans to Jacksonville to 100 miles east of Morehead City by hr 144. Pretty good track with the low, at least. It deepens to 1006 mb as it is passing NC. EDIT: Precip maps are out and there's a nasty precip cutoff somewhere around the I-85 to I-77 corridors in NC. Plenty of precip east of there, though. Still waiting on temperatures. 850 line in central VA at 132. At 120 it's i-40 north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 850 line in central VA at 132. At 120 it's i-40 north Yeah, I see now on that French model site, but then by 138 the 850 mb 0C isotherm sinks well back down into NC, which is kind of strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 CMC does have that nice overrunning snow for NC day 4, that's the best bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yeah, I see now on that French model site, but then by 138 the 850 mb 0C isotherm sinks well back down into NC, which is kind of strange. Euro did the same thing last night, I'm fairly sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 A surface low track from New Orleans to Jacksonville would be perfect for heavy snow in Atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 CMC does have that nice overrunning snow for NC day 4, that's the best bet What do surface temps look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Euro did the same thing last night, I'm fairly sure. Actually, looking back, you're right. The Euro definitely got really close for the Triad area, for example, at hr 138, but by hr 144 (on last night's run), it was easily cold enough again (same thing for CLT). Interesting. FWIW, as Packbacker said, the GGEM is a decent hit from the day 4 overrunning event for the northern 2/3rd of NC (assuming BL temperatures are fine, anyways). It would be cool to get two snowstorms in just a few days. That's not a common occurrence in the South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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