BIG FROSTY Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Thanks! Sure thing... happy to do it. No volume on the video today Matt? But I watched anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 No volume on the video today Matt? But I watched anyway! Volume comes through fine on my end. Anybody else have problems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 No volume on the video today Matt? But I watched anyway! volume worked for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Volume comes through fine on my end. Anybody else have problems? No sir, volume was great. Really enjoyed the video. Thanks again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Volume comes through fine on my end. Anybody else have problems? Worked for me. Great job as always. The best way to see the synopsis of the overnight runs and what to look for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Volume comes through fine on my end. Anybody else have problems? I thought it might be mine or kids hit mute, but I checked other sites and it was fine? EDIT: I take that back went to youtube and no volume, so def. something on my end. but I watched a video from somebody else this morning and it worked??? Sorry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 volume worked for me. No sir, volume was great. Really enjoyed the video. Thanks again! Worked for me. Great job as always. The best way to see the synopsis of the overnight runs and what to look for. Excellent.... and thanks so much for the kind words! I thought it might be mine or kids hit mute, but I checked other sites and it was fine? That's very strange. I don't have any ideas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Volume comes through fine on my end. Anybody else have problems? Volume was fine on this end (yes u ga viewers lol). Btw very good job explaining the scenarios and surface temps etc. very helpful!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Excellent.... and thanks so much for the kind words! That's very strange. I don't have any ideas.... Found problem, kids or wife had messed with volume and had it turned all the way down on computer..... EDIT: But I still don't understand how it worked on that one video this morning??? weird to say the least, sorry for the confusion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 what site is best to get model outputs in tabular format showing the thermal profile of the atmosphere? It basically represent the levels as increase atmospheric pressure and shows the associated temperatures. I used to have these bookmarked and cannot locate them now. Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDa-wx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 well this is just lovely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 KGSO shows 4-5" SN followed by 1" of ZR, ugh! http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KGSO&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well, to say the euro bothers me a bit would be an understatement. EURO would hammer us here in mid ga with nearly 1" QPF of ZR. Now, is this ultimately going to right, IDK, but that wedge looks pretty dang strong. 850's are even pretty cold as well, which tells me the depth of the cold will be more than suffice. This IS in the euro's wheelhouse right now. I would suspect, if the euro keeps this general solution, its all systems go and the GFS will eventually come back around in a day or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDa-wx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 KGSO shows 4-5" SN followed by 1" of ZR, ugh! http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KGSO&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec yeah I'm hoping the disclaimer regarding "marginally sub freezing snow supporting temperatures" being misdiagnosed as IP or ZR is in pla here...1.75" of ZR would be crippling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well, to say the euro bothers me a bit would be an understatement. EURO would hammer us here in mid ga with nearly 1" QPF of ZR. Now, is this ultimately going to right, IDK, but that wedge looks pretty dang strong. 850's are even pretty cold as well, which tells me the depth of the cold will be more than suffice. This IS in the euro's wheelhouse right now. I would suspect, if the euro keeps this general solution, its all systems go and the GFS will eventually come back around in a day or 2. It bothers me just a bit too, and it's quite often that the models underestimate the strength/duration of a good wedge. That being said......it sure will make for interesting days ahead as we watch our favorite episodes of how the models turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well, to say the euro bothers me a bit would be an understatement. EURO would hammer us here in mid ga with nearly 1" QPF of ZR. Now, is this ultimately going to right, IDK, but that wedge looks pretty dang strong. 850's are even pretty cold as well, which tells me the depth of the cold will be more than suffice. This IS in the euro's wheelhouse right now. I would suspect, if the euro keeps this general solution, its all systems go and the GFS will eventually come back around in a day or 2. That's the way I remember our best storms coming about.. euro latches on in the 3-5 day window and the GFS waffles but eventually catches up to the euro. Lets do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 That's the way I remember our best storms coming about.. euro latches on in the 3-5 day window and the GFS waffles but eventually catches up to the euro. Lets do it! Agreed...Its kind of predictable to some degree. If the euro starts loosing it/playing around with the storm the next few runs, then we might have issues...However, if it stays rock solid, its time to be sounding the alarms. That wedge looks pretty deep and strong. The SFC high isn't the strongest, but looks like it holds in a great spot plus cold and snow in NE helps a bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Unless the storm trends to a 0z GFS solution, someone unfortunately is going to get a substantial ZR event. With the different solutions, it could be the majority of NC, upstate, or Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Hate to be negative nancy but I seriously doubt this storm will come to fruition. What the final out come will be IDK Its pretty well been stuck in that timeframe for like 3 days now and I believe nam has caught onto something. So the hopes and dreams about this being a big snowstorm really maybe out the window. Nam GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Hate to be negative nancy but I seriously doubt this storm will come to fruition. What the final out come will be IDK Its pretty well been stuck in that timeframe for like 3 days now and I believe nam has caught onto something. So the hopes and dreams about this being a big snowstorm really maybe out the window. So are you saying that the DGEX is right then since it's basically the NAM extended out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Hate to be negative nancy but I seriously doubt this storm will come to fruition. What the final out come will be IDK Its pretty well been stuck in that timeframe for like 3 days now and I believe nam has caught onto something. So the hopes and dreams about this being a big snowstorm really maybe out the window. I don't follow the hours forecast on the models as close as others, but as far as I've seen in a general sense, this has always been a Tuesday night through Wednesday system. Still is it seems. We're currently 5 days out if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looking at the trend loop for the nam over the past day for select hours, it shows a different solution in every panel. Nam has given me some great fantasy snow @ hr 84 this year that has never came to fruition so I am not sure why we give it precedence in this situation. Though it does show a cutter it is still an outlier but really who knows at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Hate to be negative nancy but I seriously doubt this storm will come to fruition. What the final out come will be IDK Its pretty well been stuck in that timeframe for like 3 days now and I believe nam has caught onto something. So the hopes and dreams about this being a big snowstorm really maybe out the window. Nam GFS I'm very skeptical of this storm, and that's no secret. But I'd be even more skeptical using the 84 hr Nam here. That said, the model support for a winter storm is quite robust...there's no getting around that. But for everything to remain just perfectly aligned for at least another 5 days is a pretty challenging task. We'll see, but I'd be prepared for some disappointing runs, starting anytime now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Does anyone mind giving a quick report on the Euro Ensembles? Are they similar to the op or the previous EPS? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Hate to be negative nancy but I seriously doubt this storm will come to fruition. What the final out come will be IDK Its pretty well been stuck in that timeframe for like 3 days now and I believe nam has caught onto something. So the hopes and dreams about this being a big snowstorm really maybe out the window. Nam GFS The NAM is a mesoscale model dependent on boundary condtions from the GFS as opposed to the global models GFS, GGEM, ECMWF, UKMET that use their own boundary conditions. What does that mean? It means that this model while certainly not worthless at this time frame is designed to be best at 48-60 hours and in and to pick up on mesoscale details the global models miss with their more coarse resolution. 84 hour NAM forecasts can swing dramatically from run to run. Even with that said, the NAM has a lot of energy back in the southwest US that would eventually come east and cold air would be in place for that. What makes this a tricky event is it is being driven in a large part by the strong active southern branch of the jet stream with several different impulses that the models are having a tough time timing. ANd what makes it even more tricky is that the apparent main southern branch impulse wont even be ashore into California until Sunday night! So we may continue to see some model swings for the next 48-60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 So are you saying that the DGEX is right then since it's basically the NAM extended out? No. I just saying like most times this winter the models have been misleading and probably sending people into a wild goose hunt for something that will most likely not be real. If the nam is onto then the emotional rollercoaster ride is far from over. Nam will be showing one thing, gfs another, the euro another. Then brick in the background saying "what trends they were looking good yesterday" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 WXsouth has put out a video about the storm on youtube. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5BsbCNvGT4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The NAM is a mesoscale model dependent on boundary condtions from the GFS as opposed to the global models GFS, GGEM, ECMWF, UKMET that use their own boundary conditions. What does that mean? It means that this model while certainly not worthless at this time frame is designed to be best at 48-60 hours and in and to pick up on mesoscale details the global models miss with their more coarse resolution. 84 hour NAM forecasts can swing dramatically from run to run. Even with that said, the NAM has a lot of energy back in the southwest US that would eventually come east and cold air would be in place for that. What makes this a tricky event is it is being driven in a large part by the strong active southern branch of the jet stream with several different impulses that the models are having a tough time timing. ANd what makes it even more tricky is that the apparent main southern branch impulse wont even be ashore into California until Sunday night! So we may continue to see some model swings for the next 48-60 hours. The Nam Surface does not match-up to the 500mb or 700mb. Very good points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 What has persisted for a number of days is the 3-5" of rainfall projected for SF and to its north for this weekend. Much of the moisture feeding the SE 2/11-13 wetness is coming from that direction. So, that is in addition to Gulf moisture. Just follow the moisture progression on the GFS/Euro runs. It is pretty cool to see. So, this is not your everyday system by any means. SF hasn't had even half that kind of rainfall since December, 2012. Comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Comments? Dont ever try and hail a cab in San Francisco when it's raining . One thing I saw about the moisture fetch was in GSP's discussion this morning which mentioned the storm, as modeled on the euro, is showing a deep moisture fetch which none of our events this year has had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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