Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Wow. That sucked. The overrunning is nice, but the "main event" went "poof"! I would rather have the 4 to 5 inches of snow and no ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Wow. That sucked. The overrunning is nice, but the "main event" went "poof"! The main event would have just been an inland runner anyway. I'd rather get a token two or three inches in a cold-ish overrunning event than marginal snow changing to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looking at the QPF maps (WxBell), Warning Criteria event TN, extreme North GA, North Carolina Mountains...it then oddly skips over I-85 and picks up against toward Raleigh and down to Fayetteville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 That was a terrible run for pretty much everyone except the eastern half of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I would rather have the 4 to 5 inches of snow and no ice. Btw, this was just an estimate and very possible I could be off by an inch...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 That was a terrible run for pretty much everyone except the eastern half of NC. I didn't know CLT was Eastern NC? They looked pretty good just looking over it earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Im not too worried about seeing a suppressed storm on the GFS at this time range, many many big storms of the past have had the same look at this 5-7 day range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looking at the QPF maps (WxBell), Warning Criteria event TN, extreme North GA, North Carolina Mountains...it then oddly skips over I-85 and picks up against toward Raleigh and down to Fayetteville. Energy transference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Have to see what the Euro does now. That was the first run in a long while that was different on the GFS. Maybe it was a hiccup or maybe it was a start of a new trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I wonder if it is a situation in which the 2nd system's qpf is likely going to be negatively correlated with how strong/wet is system #1. In other words, if you'd prefer a wetter 2nd system, route for a drier/weaker first system? Is the first system robbing the 2nd system? Any opinions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I should have withheld my previous comment lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I didn't know CLT was Eastern NC? They looked pretty good just looking over it earlier. Well I guess it depends how you look at it. QPF was significantly lower than previous runs but it's still a pretty decent event with >.25 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well I guess it depends how you look at it. QPF was significantly lower than previous runs but it's still a pretty decent event with >.25 inches. And almost no major ice. I count that as a win for almost everyone! I can do with just rain here to avoid ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Energy transference? There's no energy transfer, its just moisture running west to east...models are bad to mysteriously find holes in the QPF. It would seem to be that the overrunning would keep that moisture moving along leaving a solid ribbon of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I wonder if it is a situation in which the 2nd system's qpf is likely going to be negatively correlated with how strong/wet is system #1. In other words, if you'd prefer a wetter 2nd system, route for a drier/weaker first system? Is the first system robbing the 2nd system? Any opinions Based on what I saw it was due to a weaker s/w it actually looks like the GL low stays over the midwest longer this run, that's about the only positive thing to take away. I don't think having a slightly stronger overrunning out ahead of the s/w would weaken it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Makes sense looking at 500mb. No ridge to the east means the southern shortwave will speed on unimpeded while the northern shortwave says c'ya, ill hang with the ridge back west. Andddd begins the depressing stage of the "event" ... I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Not saying that is a bad run but if you look at the bigger picture this floods the country with pacific air, so to me something looks off. Not only are the models saying our winter storm is gone but models are saying the cold is out of here. Makes sense looking at 500mb. No ridge to the east means the southern shortwave will speed on unimpeded while the northern shortwave says c'ya, ill hang with the ridge back west. Andddd begins the depressing stage of the "event" ... I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 00z Canadian has a pretty textbook track with a HP in blocking position for a nice Miller A all the way. It's got some nice overrunning out ahead of the surface low, too. Big snowstorm, presumably, though the temperature maps aren't out yet. It slides out to sea and basically misses NOVA-northwards. Hr 132: http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif Hr 144: http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Hr 156: http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_GZ_D5_PN_156_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Is anyone looking at the GEFS?? The precipitation just keeps coming and coming. From hour 96 to 228 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Is anyone looking at the GEFS?? The precipitation just keeps coming and coming. From hour 96 to 228 so far. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Link? I made it an album on imgur so as not to clutter this page: These are the 120 hour precip totals for hour hour 120, 180, and 240. http://imgur.com/ub3FAm8,FP4OiJf,imavFTr#0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The 00z Canadian has a pretty textbook track with a HP in blocking position for a nice Miller A all the way. It's got some nice overrunning out ahead of the surface low, too. Big snowstorm, presumably, though the temperature maps aren't out yet. It slides out to sea and basically misses NOVA-northwards. Hr 132: http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif Hr 144: http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Hr 156: http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_GZ_D5_PN_156_0000.gif doesn't get much prettier than that as long as the soundings are good, and they should be with the H in place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 CMC Ptypes at height of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yeah, the Canadian is a big hit assuming the P-type maps are accurate. Looks like it does mix with IP for a bit, but you're still probably easily looking at 6"+ for the western half of NC and maybe upstate SC. If we're being picky, having the LP suppressed a little more south so that it passes more over Panama City and Jacksonville would probably be preferable (as opposed to passing over Waycross, haha). Time for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Euros about to fall also... shortwaves combined...barely. Not good trends tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Is there just not a lot of cold air to tap into ? It shows the low pressure way down near Valdosta and shows rain all the way up to tenn in that last map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Euros about to fall also... No, it is actually a huge hit for many in GA/SC/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Stronger high on the 00z Euro than 12z out to hr 108 and it's colder. Let's see where she goes. I have a feeling this could be good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 No, it is actually a huge hit for many in GA/SC/NC. Euro gives 1-1.5" of qpf of wintry precip in a wide band across GA/SC/NC. Run #6 in a row!! Also, it is colder in many spots and that may mean more IP than ZR and more S than IP in some areas. It will take some time to figure this out. Bottom line: this is another weenie dream run. Thank goodness it apears Brick is in bed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Euro gives 1-1.5" of qpf of wintry precip in a wide band across GA/SC/NC. Run #6 in a row!! Looking at free maps it looks like 850's are cold this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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