JoshM Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 With some consistency coming in the models and the players seeming to be on the field. Plus this is all we're going to talk about for a while, so why not here? My first thread, shoot me if you must! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Nah man, better you than Brick! I think this is going to be the one we remember for this winter! There are alot of good signs for this one and it's only 5 days from starting to evolve. The funny thing is , it's gonna happen or not , whether you start the thread today or 3 days from now, good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I support this decision fully. This doesn't mean it will almost definitely happen, of course, but what's the point of waiting anymore? I think it is good to keep discussions related to this potential biggie separate from the earlier threats. Regardless, indications are pretty dang favorable considering that 9 of the last 10 GFS runs (going back to the 18Z of Monday, 2/3) and the last 3 Euro runs have all hit a good portion of NC pretty dern hard, especially with ZR. Regardless of the poor consistency of the models for this weekend, how often does that happen? Furthermore, the progged amount of moisture is much higher than that of the average storm. Although model runs have still not been showing much of N GA getting much of any wintry precip. verbatim, I remain quite concerned for that area and nearby areas because the current neutral negative ENSO phase is the phase that has been associated with the largest # of major ZR's and IP's in Atlanta by a wide margin. Although we're past the late Jan. peak for major ATL ZR's, 2/11-13 is still close enough and there have been several in early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Very interested to see the Euro... would be nice to start at or below freezing and go into the 20s like the last storm, but have copious amounts of moisture as was said earlier. Love that word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The 00z Canadian is a hit of some sort. Looks like snow to IP/ZR and a pretty good amount of it, taken verbatim. Then it blows up into a HECS and gives DC like two feet of snow. It's kind of a crazy run that probably won't work out anything like progged. The run also gives DC a February 2010 Snowmageddon repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I support this decision fully. This doesn't mean it will almost definitely happen, of course, but what's the point of waiting anymore? I think it is good to keep discussions related to this potential biggie separate from the earlier threats. Regardless, indications are pretty dang favorable considering that 9 of the last 10 GFS runs (going back to the 18Z of Monday, 2/3) and the last 3 Euro runs have all hit a good portion of NC pretty dern hard, especially with ZR. Regardless of the poor consistency of the models for this weekend, how often does that happen? Furthermore, the progged amount of moisture is much higher than that of the average storm. Although model runs have still not been showing much of N GA getting much of any wintry precip. verbatim, I remain quite concerned for that area and nearby areas because the current neutral negative ENSO phase is the phase that has been associated with the largest # of major ZR's and IP's in Atlanta by a wide margin. Although we're past the late Jan. peak for major ATL ZR's, 2/11-13 is still close enough and there have been several in early Feb. isn't Mid Feb a little late in the season for major zr in atl ? I wonder how many major zr there have been in atl after feb 10 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 With some consistency coming in the models and the players seeming to be on the field. Plus this is all we're going to talk about for a while, so why not here? My first thread, shoot me if you must! Hate to sound like a true Debbie Downer but given how erratic model runs have been inside of 7 days...I would personally have a hard time starting a storm-specific thread anywhere outside of 72 hours...that said, I'm rooting for ya to break us through! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Hate to sound like a true Debbie Downer but given how erratic model runs have been inside of 7 days...I would personally have a hard time starting a storm-specific thread anywhere outside of 72 hours...that said, I'm rooting for ya to break us through! Well considering the models have been doing highly dangerous chemicals lately, this is the most consistency we've seen IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 isn't Mid Feb a little late in the season for major zr in atl ? I wonder how many major zr there have been in atl after feb 10 ? Although past the peak, It isn't too late at all. I'm aware of at least four plus a borderline additional one. ATL had one on 3/25! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Well considering the models have been doing highly dangerous chemicals lately, this is the most consistency we've seen IMO point well taken...I would also say this synoptic setup would be our best setup for a winter storm (non-phase, southern slider with surface cold in place) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 0Z Euro looking much colder with some rain maybe mixed with snow already into parts of N GA as of hour 120 from a lead small event that then dissipates before SC. The main event likely still to come and colder, stronger high pressure to work with., Buckle your seat belts, folks, this could be a wild run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 @108...light precip breaking out along Gulf Coast, our surface high's looked stacked up pretty well across the Plains and up into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 0Z Euro is the 4th Euro in a row with ZR in NC within the 2/11-13 period. Some in upstate SC, too. Edit: 1.25-1.5"+ of ZR upstate SC to part of W NC! GSP to CLT corridor smashed! Edit 2: CLT gets 2" of ZR 2/12-13!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks like there's a pretty solid (0.5"+?) amount of precipitation that comes in before 850s go above zero and the western Piedmont and foothills change over to ZR and/or IP. Looks like a devastating snowstorm to ice storm for the northwestern quadrant of NC with ZR elsewhere. DC gets crushed on the front-end, but changes over to rain. The CAD holds strong in the NC favored regions and never get above freezing until after the storm is over as far as I can tell. That would be a HUGE ice storm for many. Perhaps, most importantly, the Euro seems to be getting colder with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 0Z Euro is the 4th Euro in a row with ZR in NC within the 2/11-13 period. Some in upstate SC, too. Edit: 1.25-1.5"+ of ZR upstate SC to part of W NC! GSP to CLT corridor smashed! Edit 2: CLT gets 2" of ZR 2/12-13!! Damn... Maybe I shouldn't have started the thread. It's coming after MBY with vengeance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 0Z Euro is the 4th Euro in a row with ZR in NC within the 2/11-13 period. Some in upstate SC, too. Edit: 1.25-1.5"+ of ZR upstate SC to part of W NC! GSP to CLT corridor smashed! Edit 2: CLT gets 2" of ZR 2/12-13!! Excellent...it would be a disaster for North Carolina with these temps. Reminds me a lot of the nasty ice storm we had in 94 where the entire I-40 Cooridor from Asheville to Raleigh got between 1-2 inches of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Who cares about zr. It's still rain Tell that to the trees and powerlines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's boring dude. You want snow I would much rather have a raging snowstorm, both euro and gfs give at least .5 qpf all snow here, then a switch to heavy zr.......hopefully trends colder for both of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I love the Euro WeatherBell clown and the 13.2" it spits out for MBY (GSO). There did appear to be significant snow on the front-end, but it was probably more on the order of 4-6" before the changeover. Of course, there might have been more IP after that for all I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 If it warrants it I will pin this on Saturday. Not yet guys, not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I would much rather have a raging snowstorm, both euro and gfs give at least .5 qpf all snow here, then a switch to heavy zr.......hopefully trends colder for both of us. Is a Euro qpf map available to the general public? If not, what do the totals look like for WNC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Is a Euro qpf map available to the general public? If not, what do the totals look like for WNC? No public maps, but you're looking at around 2.5" QPF down in NW SC, 1.8"-2" from CLT to GSO and about the same over towards RDU, and a general 1.5-1.7" in the foothills and mountains (except the SW mountains which might be closer to 2"). All or almost all of this is frozen in one form or another for the CAD regions. It would be the biggest storm to impact NC and upstate SC in years, so it probably won't happen, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billypg Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 No public maps, but you're looking at around 2.5" QPF down in NW SC, 1.8"-2" from CLT to GSO and about the same over towards RDU, and a general 1.5-1.7" in the foothills and mountains (except the SW mountains which might be closer to 2"). All or almost all of this is frozen in one form or another for the CAD regions. It would be the biggest storm to impact NC and upstate SC in years, so it probably won't happen, haha. Would the entire 2'5" in Upstate SC be in the form of ZR? GSP had a terrible ICE storm with heavy ZR for 4 hours with temps in the mid 20's in Dec 2005 U could see the sky lighting up from lighting & transformers being knocked out around the area. U could also hear the boom from said transformers blowing up ! The first weekend over 90% of Greenville SC was without power most went over a week or two !!! With well over 1.75 of strictly ZR It was a disaster in a real sense and would rather not experience that in my life time again ! However I would love 12 plus of snow for us all ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Would the entire 2'5" in Upstate SC be in the form of ZR? GSP had a terrible ICE storm with heavy ZR for 4 hours with temps in the mid 20's in Dec 2005 U could see the sky lighting up from lighting & transformers being knocked out around the area. U could also hear the boom from said transformers blowing up ! The first weekend over 90% of Greenville SC was without power most went over a week or two !!! With well over 1.75 of strictly ZR It was a disaster in a real sense and would rather not experience that in my life time again ! However I would love 12 plus of snow for us all ! Verbatim, it looks like the GSP area climbs above freezing as the precip is tailing off. I'd have to think at least 2" or so would be frozen, though there might be some IP or even SN towards the front (or it may be all ZR). I'm not sure, to be honest, without looking at soundings. IIRC, the Euro usually has a warm bias in CAD situations, though (In this case? I don't know). This thing will change a lot from here on out, so I wouldn't worry too much about details aside from the entertainment aspects. Anyways, off to bed. Good night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 6z GFS drastically diminishes the size of the storm. Still has a cold high to the north which would still cause the precip to be frozen or freezing in the same locations under the gun on the 0z. Looks like around 1-3 inches of snow for N. NC before a change to something else. I actually think this is a good run. At this time period(model watching), all the players are still on the field. We will have variations of output(seems like we always do at this time--near 5 days out). We just don't want the whole setup to change to another scenario(lake cutter. etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Yeah 6z is def a suppressed look, but in this time frame that's what I prefer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Here's one of the frames from the Wunderground map of the Euro last night. I mistakenly placed this in the pattern thread originally, not seeing that we had started umpteen different threads overnight. 850s seem pretty supportive of snow for at least the more northern portions of this map, so it's a pretty decent thump: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Here's one of the frames from the Wunderground map of the Euro last night. I mistakenly placed this in the pattern thread originally, not seeing that we had started umpteen different threads overnight. 850s seem pretty supportive of snow for at least the more northern portions of this map, so it's a pretty decent thump: I'll take that and gladly go home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I showed this in my video today, but the reason the 6z was much less of an impressive system than the 0z GFS was is a much less sharp 500mb trough/ vorticity. See below the comparison of the 6z and 0z at the same time frame. 0z: 6z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Yep, Matt ... much more zonal look to the 6z run. Looks like a good one to watch and wait on. Don't want to send folks screaming to the IGA just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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