psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lol, the Wednesday storm.Euro op and eps control run are a good hit. Eps also supports it. Gfs and ggem are east. Still time to sort that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Been flurrying here in pine grove last hour. Not heavy but huge fluffy flakes. The kind that give high ratios. My fear looking at radar is everything seems to be sliding north a bit and we might end up south of the initial band. That band in western pa will hit us but I'm also worried the ratios won't be as good as the thermal profiles shift a bit north today. From the flake type you can tell we are in the perfect snow growth region right now. Hopefully that doesn't end up to our north later. I was just outside and saw the flurries, and you're right, good snow growth. Thing is, they've stopped for now, and we have almost a muted sun again. It's not supposed to start until after 2:00PM, so not worried...yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Dr. Jon Nese tweeted this about later, hope it's right: https://twitter.com/jmnese/status/432551803289219072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Latest HRRR snow total: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=hrrr_jet:&runtime=2014020914&plot_type=acsnw_t3sfc&fcst=15&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1 General 1-3 for us all with highest in the dead center of state (us in more ways than one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Has been snowing moderately around Pittsburgh the last hour and the interstates are becoming snow covered. I think it will hold over the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Great little event to freshen up the snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 No love from the GFS regarding Thursday, but it looks like the GGEM is closer to a significant east coast storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z Canadian is a nice hit for eastern 2/3rds of PA Wed -> Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ok, apparently the GGEM is a MECS or better for the I-95 area. Saved for posterity... This should excite the NYC/New England weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ok, apparently the GGEM is a MECS or better for the I-95 area. Saved for posterity... Screen Shot 2014-02-09 at 12.22.37 PM.png This should excite the NYC/New England weenies Why would you post this here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lol agreed. I'd rather it OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ok, apparently the GGEM is a MECS or better for the I-95 area. Saved for posterity... Screen Shot 2014-02-09 at 12.22.37 PM.png This should excite the NYC/New England weenies Canadian is a nuclear bomb, sub 970 off the Jersey Coast and 961 passing over Cape Cod. I-95 storm though and only really gets a bit of southeastern PA. Track starts too far outside for us, off the SC and NC coasts, but ends up inside the benchmark...keeping coastal SNE and southeastern Mass rain and snow to rain in Boston. Need more of a track through SE VA to get us heavily involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Re-affirming what I promised in the last thread - if this is an I-95 blizzard and screwjob for us - I'm out of here for 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Canadian is a nuclear bomb, sub 970 off the Jersey Coast and 961 passing over Cape Cod. I-95 storm though and only really gets a bit of southeastern PA. Track starts too far outside for us, off the SC and NC coasts, but ends up inside the benchmark...keeping coastal SNE and southeastern Mass rain and snow to rain in Boston. Need more of a track through SE VA to get us heavily involved. Hopefully it moves closer. It is better than last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Sun was out earlier, disappeared fast, now snowing. Flakes getting bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ok, apparently the GGEM is a MECS or better for the I-95 area. Saved for posterity... Screen Shot 2014-02-09 at 12.22.37 PM.png This should excite the NYC/New England weenies I know way better than to go crazy over an often overdone GGEM run. The kicker in the Midwest though is what might make this too far east for many of you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Sun was out earlier, disappeared fast, now snowing. Flakes getting bigger. Hopefully the flakes get better haha, they're like mini dippin dots down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lol guys please don't get wrapped up in this event it will not sig. Impact just about any of us. These types of storms rarely trend west and we've been through this drill before. Enjoy whatever falls today and hope a good SWFE is in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lol guys please don't get wrapped up in this event it will not sig. Impact just about any of us. These types of storms rarely trend west and we've been through this drill before. Enjoy whatever falls today and hope a good SWFE is in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I was just outside and saw the flurries, and you're right, good snow growth. Thing is, they've stopped for now, and we have almost a muted sun again. It's not supposed to start until after 2:00PM, so not worried...yet! We will get the band moving east over western PA right now, and at least about 1" from it...but the 2-4 is based on the idea of high ratios and I am skeptical since the thermal profiles are shifting north today and that area is likely to be the north of 80 once east of the Susquehanna. We will see...some nice banding to our west right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Welp the flakes are better now, HEAVY snow falling. Also.. really?? One run of the GGEM has the weenies causing driver errors and slow loading with the forum? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro is east. Business as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hopefully it moves closer. It is better than last night. It is trending better, but the GGEM is disturbing to me because it shows something I have noticed that I feel is the biggest reason for the snow drought in the 81 region of eastern PA. How does a storm track only 75 miles east of ACY at 965 mb and only get heavy precip west to Philly? Historically a track inside the benchmark but sub 995 mb was a perfect 10"+ track for MDT to AVP. Back towards UNV you want a track right along the coast or just inside. But lately storms have been developing intense convective banding that cuts off moisture transport further west so the storm drops crazy intense snowfall right near the low but nothing inland. Tracks that should produce big storms for east central PA no longer. I have a theory it has something to do with warmer water. The worst part is if the storm tracks just inland...we do not seem to get the same effect so if its just off the coast we miss the heavy snow to the east, but if it tracks just inside we go to rain. Thus a lack of big snows in the 81 area compared to historically lately. Just an observation and the 12zggem seems to show the same type of thing happening. Hopefully euro holds with a good solution for inland PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hopefully the flakes get better haha, they're like mini dippin dots down here. Moderate sized flakes here, very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looking good. That's a bad track for Central PA verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It is trending better, but the GGEM is disturbing to me because it shows something I have noticed that I feel is the biggest reason for the snow drought in the 81 region of eastern PA. How does a storm track only 75 miles east of ACY at 965 mb and only get heavy precip west to Philly? Historically a track inside the benchmark but sub 995 mb was a perfect 10"+ track for MDT to AVP. Back towards UNV you want a track right along the coast or just inside. But lately storms have been developing intense convective banding that cuts off moisture transport further west so the storm drops crazy intense snowfall right near the low but nothing inland. Tracks that should produce big storms for east central PA no longer. I have a theory it has something to do with warmer water. The worst part is if the storm tracks just inland...we do not seem to get the same effect so if its just off the coast we miss the heavy snow to the east, but if it tracks just inside we go to rain. Thus a lack of big snows in the 81 area compared to historically lately. Just an observation and the 12zggem seems to show the same type of thing happening. Hopefully euro holds with a good solution for inland PA. I think you need to alter this to I-81 from Harrisburg south. Look at the storm maps page on the weather.gov CTP and you'll see what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro looks good for LSV midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Some bigger flakes trying to mix in with the "dippin dots" here, coming down pretty steadily. On a side note I noted there were over 500 people reading the SE storm thread, wonder if that has something to do with all the SQL errors I keep getting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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