Anduril Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So, that CBS21 graphic is rather...interesting. Foot+ for like...half of central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Track is good now, just got to juice it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS comes west. Still bone dry though compared to everything else. Highest qpf panels are .10" for anyone. Post images if/when you can - I got to get to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I posted this on the other forum, but got no response... It appears as though (based on comparison with the SPC meso-analysis page) that the GFS/NAM initialized too weak with the system over Texas and was still too weak 3 hours later... I may be incorrect, but just using the 5640 M line vs the 564 dm line on the models it appears to be the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 My parents in NE Texas are experiencing thundersleet right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS pretty much folds...finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS pretty much folds...finally gfsUS_500_avort_048.gif gfsUS_sfc_prec_051.gif bring on the amped up western 00z trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well that is one of the problems with it coming further west, there is always the possibility of mixing or even changing to something other than snow. But if it allows a great hit for all those who have been snow deprived, then so be it. This has become very interesting to watch how the models converge/diverge. Of course a close second is watching all of the forums light up with weather banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS nice track for most, needs to juice up... 3-5" for most then explodes and gives Maine over a foot basically statewide. Look for precip trends here on out it looks like. Should end up a coastal hugger or just off shore. Throwing out NAM and RGEM as east and west outliers IMO is way to go with GFS being a dry outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well there you go kids... Here she is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Man she is really far down in the gulf. Obviously nowhere near the same dynamics but is this a similar location to the 93 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirSonic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z GFS doesn't look right, it should be further west then it shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS nice track for most, needs to juice up... 3-5" for most then explodes and gives Maine over a foot basically statewide. Look for precip trends here on out it looks like. Should end up a coastal hugger or just off shore. Throwing out NAM and RGEM as east and west outliers IMO is way to go with GFS being a dry outlier. Mag isn't this what you had said would happen with the low occluding short of here and then re-energizing past us which leads to the lesser amounts of precip for PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well there you go kids... Here she is. ScreenHunter_65 Feb. 11 16.54.png BOOOOOOOOO GFS has really moved NW, man. Almost .25 to UNV. Going to be an interesting 0Z set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Liking that 18z GFS track. Trends looking good for true central... UNV went from no snow at 12z to clearing the 3" line 18z. That QPF field looks suspect but with that damn low in the lakes still I wouldn't discount it completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS should be discounted for now, it has been significantly different in almost every other run. Till euro/ukmet change i'd go with those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Oh boy...NYC weenie suicide watch in effect. Goes to show that you cannot celebrate a storm which hasn't happened yet! Glad to see that the EURO is still useful in certain mid-range winter situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I still don't get why lack of moisture in the gfs. Mid Atlantic meltdown has commenced btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Man she is really far down in the gulf. Obviously nowhere near the same dynamics but is this a similar location to the 93 storm? Yep. Nascent Miller A's often begin their baroclinic life cycle in that region of the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Oh boy...NYC weenie suicide watch in effect. Goes to show that you cannot celebrate a storm which hasn't happened yet! Glad to see that the EURO is still useful in certain mid-range winter situations. Folks especially east of I-95 should have been aware from the get-go that these solutions that are close to the coast would introduce mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I still don't get why lack of moisture in the gfs. Mid Atlantic meltdown has commenced btw. Could be the shortwave in the GL or it could be the low occluding as it comes up the coast. No one can really provide an answer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I still don't get why lack of moisture in the gfs. Mid Atlantic meltdown has commenced btw. both GFS and NAM insist on wrapping dry air into the system when it is over the carolinas... thats why precip drier than euro/etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Folks especially east of I-95 should have been aware from the get-go that these solutions that are close to the coast would introduce mixing issues. Yea going to be a lot of disappointed folks in the big cities. I know every one west of the LSV is routing for more west track and the more west the more of a mix even coming into to LSV. Its been like that forever with these type of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I would love to see these western solutions verify. I might see nothing, but am loving the meltdowns from the megalopolis weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Could be the shortwave in the GL or it could be the low occluding as it comes up the coast. No one can really provide an answer... GFS and Euro have similar placement of the Great Lakes system and it doesn't seem to truly stack until hour 60 on the 18z GFS when it's over Cape Cod. GFS track still a bit east of the Euro coming past the Delmarva but still finally got precip back to the central counties. I just think the GFS is underdoing the intensity of the deform band in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z RGEM anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z RGEM anyone? We already posted it. Way west. Rain into SE counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS and Euro have similar placement of the Great Lakes system and it doesn't seem to truly stack until hour 60 on the 18z GFS when it's over Cape Cod. GFS track still a bit east of the Euro coming past the Delmarva but still finally got precip back to the central counties. I just think the GFS is underdoing the intensity of the deform band in PA. I brought this up after the Euro's drop in qpf over my immediate region, and I got a bit of an answer, but now the GFS is lacking on larger scale, and the issue was raised over in the Mid Atlantic forum. HM offered this bit of insight. The GFS is blowing up some sick W. Atlantic convection which works in-tandem with the dry-conveyor belt. This could be a reason it is limiting QPF in your area, but I am guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I brought this up after the Euro's drop in qpf over my immediate region, and I got a bit of an answer, but now the GFS is lacking on larger scale, and the issue was raised over in the Mid Atlantic forum. HM offered this bit of insight. GFS pulls in air with RH <10% at 700mb.... Euro pulls in some dry air too but not as extreme... that is what I plan to keep an eye on tomorrow... isnt dry air at 700mb what screwed DC and much of our region for the March 6 2013 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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