djr5001 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 still slower than 0z run at 48h... surface low now along north carolina coastline... weaker than same timeframe from 0z... west of GFS looking slightly west of 0z at 54h but again surface low not as deep and bombing at 60h near del-mar-va... well west of GFS 66h sub 984mb low just off of NJ coast... southwest of 0z run to keep precip over us longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Tells the other models to get on it's level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ya, I'm a O/O. Got a nice gig goin. Home most weekends for a day, day an a half. I've seen ur posts, put 2-n-2 together. U pulln a bulk tanker?flour maybe? I'm home for a week, I'm in the hills of hummelstown,Hershey. Always colder here than in towns, more snow too. Kind of cool. Actually, I hauled spring water (a nightmare in this extreme cold) until last Friday. I took this week off, then will be starting a regional gig with Paul Miller Trucking out of Spring Grove. Generally, my territory should be from Indiana to New Jersey and the Carolinas to Maine. Anyway, like everyone else, hoping for good things from the Euro. Hoping it holds serve and even, perhaps, ticks west a bit for our True Central folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 europrecip.png Tells the other models to get on it's level. Actually its drier for me in York or other sections than 00z and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 850 temps are barely below 0 for MDT/THV/LNS at the peak of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 With that run I think we mix in Lsv for a period of time. My qpf went down almost a half inch from the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 OK, question. I know I've asked this before, but never got a real good answer. Why do the models always seem to show what I have circled in red. An area of lower qpf that, no matter which direction the storm comes from, or which trajectory it takes, shows up near or over my location. I can't quite figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From Eric Horst: Says a 50 mile jog either way causes snow totals to rise or drop. Very narrow band of heavy snow on his map. Should be interesting to see how this plays out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Actually its drier for me in York or other sections than 00z and warmer. We all know the insane near 2" totals are bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow_ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Anyone have the euros snowfall map? I see the qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From Eric Horst: Says a 50 mile jog either way causes snow totals to rise or drop. Very narrow band of heavy snow on his map. Should be interesting to see how this plays out today. Don't agree with that. Has 10-15" in DC/Balt.. I don't see that happening. Will be NW. DC will mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 OK, question. I know I've asked this before, but never got a real good answer. Why do the models always seem to show what I have circled in red. An area of lower qpf that, no matter which direction the storm comes from, or which trajectory it takes, shows up near or over my location. I can't quite figure it out. post-959-0-63172700-1392142237.jpg I wonder if that is due to a gap in airports in that region... that looks to be the cause to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the GFS and NAM lock onto that track, which they should, then I expect at least a 50% in QPF over PA. Also, The CMC/UKMET/ECMWF is a deadly combo to have on our side. The ECWMF Ens should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 OK, question. I know I've asked this before, but never got a real good answer. Why do the models always seem to show what I have circled in red. An area of lower qpf that, no matter which direction the storm comes from, or which trajectory it takes, shows up near or over my location. I can't quite figure it out. post-959-0-63172700-1392142237.jpg I can't say why in all cases but the reason for the lower totals on the euro run are because the low bombs out very far south and then occludes...during this process the dynamics are weakening as the WAA shuts off...thus the precip sheild will expand but weaken, then the low redevelops a second time east of New England, thus heavier precip totals pick back up again to our northeast. We are stuck in between two stages of when the low is in a dynamic stage thus the lower precip output in our area. Still I would take a 6-10" event even if south and north of us gets 10-18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I can't say why in all cases but the reason for the lower totals on the euro run are because the low bombs out very far south and then occludes...during this process the dynamics are weakening as the WAA shuts off...thus the precip sheild will expand but weaken, then the low redevelops a second time east of New England, thus heavier precip totals pick back up again to our northeast. We are stuck in between two stages of when the low is in a dynamic stage thus the lower precip output in our area. Still I would take a 6-10" event even if south and north of us gets 10-18". Thanks. I agree, 6-10 is nothing to sneeze at and is a good storm, but wow...it just seems like, one way or another, I/we are in the wrong location for a great event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I see this date a lot. I do not think we even get close to those total but still a good read. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/the-megalopolitan-blizzard-of-february-10-12-1983/2013/02/12/be05ae32-73a9-11e2-aa12-e6cf1d31106b_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 2_11_14 12z EURO Day/Time/Date/2m temp © / 850mb temp © / surface pressure (mb) / surface relative humidity (%) / 700mb relative humidity (%) / 6-hour QPF (IN) / 500mb height (DM) / 1000-500mb thickness IPTTHU 12Z 13-FEB -8.6 -5.5 1019 90 72 0.03 549 534 THU 18Z 13-FEB -2.8 -1.9 1010 85 99 0.16 545 537 FRI 00Z 14-FEB -1.3 -2.8 1000 89 96 0.28 539 539 FRI 06Z 14-FEB -2.3 -3.5 996 87 97 0.20 531 534 UNVTHU 12Z 13-FEB -9.3 -5.0 1019 90 78 0.04 548 534 THU 18Z 13-FEB -3.2 -2.6 1009 88 98 0.18 544 536 FRI 00Z 14-FEB -1.2 -2.0 1001 90 100 0.25 538 537 FRI 06Z 14-FEB -1.9 -2.3 998 89 53 0.11 532 534 MDTTHU 12Z 13-FEB -5.1 -3.0 1016 91 93 0.29 550 538 THU 18Z 13-FEB -1.2 -0.5 1005 88 90 0.32 546 542 FRI 00Z 14-FEB 0.5 -4.5 996 88 28 0.26 538 541 FRI 06Z 14-FEB 0.1 -3.8 995 86 95 0.13 531 535 LNSTHU 12Z 13-FEB -4.2 -2.1 1016 91 96 0.32 551 538 THU 18Z 13-FEB -1.1 -0.2 1004 89 69 0.33 547 544 FRI 00Z 14-FEB 0.7 -1.8 994 89 18 0.18 538 542 FRI 06Z 14-FEB 0.1 -3.7 993 87 97 0.16 529 535 THVTHU 12Z 13-FEB -4.6 -2.3 1015 91 93 0.36 550 539 THU 18Z 13-FEB -1.2 -0.5 1004 89 86 0.32 546 543 FRI 00Z 14-FEB 0.5 -4.3 995 89 26 0.25 537 541 FRI 06Z 14-FEB 0.5 -3.8 995 85 94 0.16 531 535 AOOTHU 12Z 13-FEB -8.6 -4.8 1017 90 95 0.13 548 534 THU 18Z 13-FEB -3.9 -2.6 1008 89 98 0.24 543 536 FRI 00Z 14-FEB -1.0 -2.0 1001 90 99 0.27 538 537 FRI 06Z 14-FEB -1.3 -2.7 999 85 30 0.08 534 534 AVPTHU 12Z 13-FEB -8.2 -5.4 1020 89 87 0.05 550 534 THU 18Z 13-FEB -2.2 -1.8 1009 87 97 0.22 547 539 FRI 00Z 14-FEB -1.3 -5.0 999 89 36 0.22 541 542 FRI 06Z 14-FEB -1.9 -5.4 992 89 95 0.12 530 536 FRI 12Z 14-FEB -2.9 -4.7 996 90 33 0.11 530 533 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the EURO's take is the most correct, then if 850's are just barely south of MDT/THV/LNS, wouldn't DC have to significantly mix or even go over to rain during the peak? One thing Horst's map seems to show is that there will not be significant warming aloft anywhere close to our area. idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 LNS THU 06Z 13-FEB -7.3 -7.2 1025 89 89 0.04 552 533 THU 12Z 13-FEB -4.2 -2.1 1016 91 96 0.32 551 538 THU 18Z 13-FEB -1.1 -0.2 1004 89 69 0.33 547 544 FRI 00Z 14-FEB 0.7 -1.8 994 89 18 0.18 538 542 FRI 06Z 14-FEB 0.1 -3.7 993 87 97 0.16 529 535 FRI 12Z 14-FEB -2.0 -2.4 999 67 8 0.04 534 534 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 LWX first snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I see this date a lot. I do not think we even get close to those total but still a good read. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/the-megalopolitan-blizzard-of-february-10-12-1983/2013/02/12/be05ae32-73a9-11e2-aa12-e6cf1d31106b_blog.html Loved that storm, didnt work for a week or more after but loved it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like slightly more qpf back here than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If you play the extrapolation game into CTPs CWA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thats 1" for MDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thats 1" for MDT You mean one inch of liquid, correct? That is exactly what the text output adds up to at MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So when will CTP ever issue watches down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runupthescore Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So when will CTP ever issue watches down here. Ha -- I was just thinking "hey, someone wake up CTP". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 LWX first snow map. Matches up real good with this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Matches up real good with this map. Sarcasm? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.