Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NYC folks already discounting GGEM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I am getting frustrated that there is no clear forecast yet. Nws Binghamton told me that they are waiting for another model to come in, and then it would be as clear as mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Tom Clark wnep said 1 to 3 inches in the Wilkes Barre at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I am getting frustrated that there is no clear forecast yet. Nws Binghamton told me that they are waiting for another model to come in, and then it would be as clear as mud.Theyre waiting on the Euro then. If it holds it is fairly clear the GFS is the outlier, and the NAM is pulling a Richard Seymore Hoffman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Okay so the UKIE is .35-.50 or so QPF verbatim. GGEM is what, a few mm. GFS/NAM nada. ECM on 0z was probably .4.-.5. Trend is track more westerly but how much so and that precip shield remains in question. Ugh! Models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't see that at all. Sorry, it's at the top of his special weather discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ggem looks at least similar to ukie for precip I'd imagine with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ggem looks at least similar to ukie for precip I'd imagine with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Anyone here able to do ECM PBP when it starts rolling out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Anyone here able to do ECM PBP when it starts rolling out? Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Anyone here able to do ECM PBP when it starts rolling out? I can try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just wanted to say wuts up all. Posted once or twice last year. I run from Omaha to Manchester ,pa twice a week. Happy to be home watching it snow an not driving my rig in it this time. Love reading all posts, but lost on ur abbreviations/ terms most of the time. But thx for the info and knowledge Welcome driver! I'm one as well...heading back out next week as a regional. Been local for a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Tom Clark wnep said 1 to 3 inches in the Wilkes Barre at noon. He's always late to catch on as all in that station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Stupid shortwave over the GL is killing the western edge of the precip shield. Usually this would be epic for the area. And no, the low is not occluding. GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Latest model discussion from WPC:"...EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM...PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF WITH SFC LOW TRACK ADJUSTED 40 MILESSOUTH/EASTDESPITE BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES HAVINGENTERED THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR NETWORK...SOME SIGNIFICANTMODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN. WHAT WE DO KNOW WITH CONFIDENCE IS THATTHIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY DISRUPTIVE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ANDSNOW OVER A BROAD SWATH AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND THE EASTCOAST STATES. CONCEPTUALLY THE MODELS INDICATE SIMILAR IDEAS TOONE ANOTHER...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG THECENTRAL GULF COAST AROUND 12/12Z AND THE CYCLONE THEN DEEPENING ASIT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD THE OUTER BANKSIN NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN UP THE EAST COAST.THE GFS HAD BEEN ONE OF THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY WHENMEASURED BY THE SURFACE LOW DEPTH AND THE LATE ONSET OF A CLOSEDCIRCULATION AT 500 MB. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER AT THESURFACE...BUT IS STILL SLOW TO CLOSE OFF A LOW AT 500 MB...AND ISCORRESPONDINGLY FASTER IN ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE ECMWF HAS STRONGSUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 00Z UKMET RUNOCCASIONALLY PHASED WITH THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. STILL...IT IS DIFFICULT TO MOVE OUR PREFERENCEENTIRELY TOWARD THE ECMWF...DESPITE ITS RELATIVE CONSISTENCY...ASTHERE IS NO PHYSICAL REASON TO EXPECT THAT THE SURFACE CYCLONEWILL DEFINITELY SPIN UP AS EARLY AND AS SYMMETRICALLY AS IT DOESIN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. MANY OTHER SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THENAM/SREF/GFS/UKMET HAVE INDICATED A MORE ELONGATED LOW EARLY INTHE PROCESS...STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE INTHE SOUTHERN STATES.ONE WAY TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES IS TO TAKE THE CHARACTER ANDINTENSITY OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND SHIFT IT JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTHAND EAST TOWARD MORE OF A CONSENSUS TRACK.THE NAM HAS FALLEN NEAR CONSENSUS ON OCCASION...BUT THE 12Z RUNDID NOT. IT IS THE FLATTEST MODEL WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAMSHORTWAVE THAT SPURS THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICHYIELDS A FAST AND WEAK SYSTEM OVERALL. IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TOPUT MUCH IF ANY WEIGHT ON THE NAM AFTER DAY 1." True dat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WRF-ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro has begun, here we go. Hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z ECMWF is running... Here's to a good run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lsv Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Welcome driver! I'm one as well...heading back out next week as a regional. Been local for a few years. ya, I'm a O/O. Got a nice gig goin. Home most weekends for a day, day an a half. I've seen ur posts, put 2-n-2 together. U pulln a bulk tanker?flour maybe? I'm home for a week, I'm in the hills of hummelstown,Hershey. Always colder here than in towns, more snow too. Kind of cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 just for fun while waiting for Euro... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NYC weenies seem to "know" the euro will come east lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lsv Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Be nice if Euro holds. Get to maybe see a nice event. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No changes through 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 not seeing any huge changes through 24h other than high over northeast slightly stronger... will need to keep an eye on this link here for when the "kicker" great lakes low reaching land tonight http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfc.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Low spot about the same, maybe a bit SW and precip a little slower through 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 looks to be a hair slower through 30h along gulf coast surface low already stronger at 36h than 12z gfs surface low to south carolina coast at 42h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How about the kicker low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Pretty much lock step through 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 HR 60 crushes central pa. .25"+ from my house to UNV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Big run for pa. .50"+ for mostly everyone east of Altoonaish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.