Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hi-res 12z NAM. post-1294-0-81618100-1392130931.png Wrong area for this thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seems all the local outlets have Harrisburg in 6-12 inches or more. There is a reason why CTP doesn't even have watches up yet for most of the LSV. People are going to look like real idiots if the Euro starts to cave towards the NAM/GFS later today or tonight. These big numbers absolutely have to be based solely on the Euro and while it could be correct you know what they say about putting all your eggs in one basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wrong area for this thread... I was trying to show LSV, can't find a graphic that covers CTPs entire CWA. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I was trying to show LSV, can't find a graphic that covers CTPs entire CWA. Sorry No problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It may be time for the locals to explain their prediction numbers when so many of the models are showing what would virtually be a very minor event for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow.. I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A couple of the Philly locals are calling for a switch over to rain, so its just not our locals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Has that low near the Dakotas. Keep it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 A couple of the Philly locals are calling for a switch over to rain, so its just not our localsThis is a very plausible scenario, and was so prior to the NAM. If the Euro is right it looks to throw a warm sector along the coast and flip someone over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is a very plausible scenario, and was so prior to the NAM. If the Euro is right it looks to throw a warm sector along the coast and flip someone over. Guess I don't get the "NAM shows rain" talk. This is PHL on the NAM: WED 7P 12-FEB -4.1 -7.9 1029 91 8 0.00 554 531 THU 1A 13-FEB -2.3 -6.1 1021 96 98 0.06 551 535 THU 7A 13-FEB -1.2 -1.6 1010 96 97 0.50 548 540 THU 1P 13-FEB -0.8 -3.7 1006 96 96 0.50 541 536 THU 7P 13-FEB -0.2 -4.8 1007 91 67 0.11 538 532 WxBell maps FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM way west. lol .Turns DC to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM way west. lol .Turns DC to rain. these models are drunk. There is a huge spread between them. This is going to be tough forecasting for a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM way west. lol .Turns DC to rain. Yeesh, that's even further W than the 0z UK/ECM. Yay model continuity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lol good luck forecasters rgem on path for classic CPA hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Surface low a little stronger and closer to the coast through h48? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CabarrusWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seems all the local outlets have Harrisburg in 6-12 inches or more. There is a reason why CTP doesn't even have watches up yet for most of the LSV. People are going to look like real idiots if the Euro starts to cave towards the NAM/GFS later today or tonight. These big numbers absolutely have to be based solely on the Euro and while it could be correct you know what they say about putting all your eggs in one basket. Not WHTM. They have prudently avoided giving out any totals. They have mentioned a big storm is possible and explained the scenarios, but have rightfully so not given accumulations out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS slightly better again. 0Z will be the boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not sure if it matters, but the guys on PhillyWX are saying the CMC is a coastal hugger now (ie west). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM way west. lol .Turns DC to rain. wow, that is a huge shift West. but like the rest of them, can we beleive it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not sure if it matters, but the guys on PhillyWX are saying the CMC is a coastal hugger now (ie west). RGEM... CMC doesn't come out until 1130ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not WHTM. They have prudently avoided giving out any totals. They have mentioned a big storm is possible and explained the scenarios, but have rightfully so not given accumulations out yet. Yep, i spoke of ths last night about Eric Finkenbinders 6pm segment. Spoke of the storms potential, didn't throw numbers around like the rest of em. Good man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Gfs is a good hit for the LSV, HOWEVER, lanco and east get crushed, pending any mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yep, i spoke of ths last night about Eric Finkenbinders 6pm segment. Spoke of the storms potential, didn't throw numbers around like the rest of em. Good man! He's a good guy. Had the chance to meet him a few weeks back. We won't come out with totals till 24 hours from an event at the latest. It's our department policy, so Joe Calhoun should have a map out tonight, if not already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yep, i spoke of ths last night about Eric Finkenbinders 6pm segment. Spoke of the storms potential, didn't throw numbers around like the rest of em. Good man! Yes sorry I didn't mention it but 27 was the one channel not to hype and just say we are not sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lol GFS shows very little precip on the entire cold side of the storm. They seem to be having a heck of a time figuring this out. Meanwhile low continues to get closer to coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lol GFS shows very little precip on the entire cold side of the storm. They seem to be having a heck of a time figuring this out. Meanwhile low continues to get closer to coast. Gfs was a good hit for lsv and all the way into NEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MidAtl thread talking about sleet from Frederick east on the GFS gotta be good for the LSV right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This has March 6th written all over it if you believe the american guidance. HUGE red flag is the southeast wind and lack of cold high pressure to the northwest. Major, major bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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