JamieOber Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM still SE but, still it's the nam and not usual till about 12 hours out. Even further SE. It's sort of funny. 12Z 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM actually has RAIN for northeastern PA. You can't make this s**t up... How is it rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Even further SE. It's sort of funny. 12Z 06Z That model sucks. In one run I bet it goes from .25" here to like 1" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That model sucks. In one run I bet it goes from .25" here to like 1" lol Actually it's further W with the low, perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How is it rain? Someone on Crapuweather Forums was posting the WxBell p-type maps and it had rain showing up 81 west while 95 was getting CCB'd. Not that it really matters since precip is .25 at best verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Someone on Crapuweather Forums was posting the WxBell p-type maps and it had rain showing up 81 west while 95 was getting CCB'd. Not that it really matters since precip is .25 at best verbatim. Ugh. The 850s and surface never get above freezing. AccuWx forums are a great argument for birth control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is funny I can't see it yet but from the posts here its way se but somehow nw enough to rain in pa. Can't even get a picture of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Actually it's further W with the low, perhaps. The H5 does not match any other model. The rest dig down to gulf. NAM just cuts it across the MS valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well I'm beginning to think the erosion of precip on the western side is as big of a deal as storm track. The track looks west of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think kicker is stronger suppressing moisture on west side. Going to be a very right cutoff per NAM model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That kicker is completely screwing us. Best track we've had all year and that thing comes in and shunts it east at the worst possible time for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM's weird only because it has the kicker super strong. It's not entirely implausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think kicker is stronger suppressing moisture on west side. Going to be a very right cutoff per NAM model. we've seen that dog and pony show before haven't we. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The H5 does not match any other model. The rest dig down to gulf. NAM just cuts it across the MS valley. it tracks the Great Lakes energy further south and east on this run... to me it looks like it is really having a hard time with so many pulses of energy that it is struggling with developing our system... the low over northern canada and the energy from the Great Lakes low seem to be influencing development/precip greatly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM's weird only because it has the kicker super strong. It's not entirely implausible. It is more different because it does not close off the H5 energy like the rest of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Actually it's further W with the low, perhaps. It is Jamie, but shouldn't you have used 54 vs 60 to adjust for the 6 hour time difference between runs? 51 to 60 is 9 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 it tracks the Great Lakes energy further south and east on this run... to me it looks like it is really having a hard time with so many pulses of energy that it is struggling with developing our system... the low over northern canada and the energy from the Great Lakes low seem to be influencing development/precip greatly NAM is a horrible model, so makes sense. It had our ice storm going into Ohio till like 36 hours out. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is funny I can't see it yet but from the posts here its way se but somehow nw enough to rain in pa. Can't even get a picture of that. No, ignore what he said. He was repeating information from a Wx Bell map that is plain horrible. No one in PA is getting rain on the NAM. Gotta wonder how many times people will post WxBell maps and look ridiculous (not PSUHazleton, the moron at AccuWx forums) before they figure out "golly gee they aren't that good." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It is Jamie, but shouldn't you have used 54 vs 60 to adjust for the 6 hour time difference between runs? 51 to 60 is 9 hours. I was trying to adjust for timing. It seems a bit different. It makes more sense to go on where the low is as far as latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No, ignore what he said. He was repeating information from a Wx Bell map that is plain horrible. No one in PA is getting rain on the NAM. Gotta wonder how many times people will post WxBell maps and look ridiculous (not PSUHazleton, the moron at AccuWx forums) before they figure out "golly gee they aren't that good." how would anyone think we'd have plain ole rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yea guys keep in mind the nam had us getting .8 inches of snow in the storm last week. End result over 7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I was trying to adjust for timing. It seems a bit different. It makes more sense to go on where the low is as far as latitude. Maybe. I've been using two tabs and going 6 hours to account for the run times to see the differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yea guys keep in mind the nam had us getting .8 inches of snow in the storm last week. End result over 7 inches. You know what it showed here? About .4" qpf. Reality about 1" qpf. At least till inside 36 it was clueless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Unfortunately no mets seeing any real problems with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Maybe. I've been using two tabs and going 6 hours to account for the run times to see the differences. go here: http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ you can compare previous runs for the models, or even compare the same runs over all the models. it does all the hour difference stuff for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Maybe. I've been using two tabs and going 6 hours to account for the run times to see the differences. But if the timing in different, you don't get the true picture. Wes and other pro mets have pointed this out before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 FWIW PennLive has a map up showing MDT getting 12-18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 go here: http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ you can compare previous runs for the models, or even compare the same runs over all the models. it does all the hour difference stuff for you. Nice...thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well, if the NAM does verify (unlikely), I will definitely be taking my 30-day hiatus. I'd be much better with an 81 bullseye than 95. Obviously UNV isn't getting the best snow regardless, but I just can't watch while those damn crybabies over in NYC continue to get nannied by Mother Nature. Ill be right there with ya, I'm going to Florida in a few days so will put this all behind pretty quick lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hi-res 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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