kdskidoo Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 -1 here now was 4 when I got up at 5 AM. ok, I'm headed to the cabin in potter to do some riding, be back tomorrow evening. I fully expect all the models to show a raging blizzard from state college eastward when I get home. well, all the models except the nam, that model is the worst. the gfs will eventually catch on. lets do this one, central pa is way over due for a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Models should finally be good today, hopefully. CTP will have to issue watches for more counties later i'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Models should finally be good today, hopefully. CTP will have to issue watches for more counties later i'd say. It does seem as if the American models are moving, albeit slowly, toward a somewhat westward, tighter to the coast scenario. I'm really hoping that doesn't change once the northern stream energy is better sampled. That part makes me a bit nervous, but otherwise, I kind of like where we're sitting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I can't post it from my phone but accuweather has a more aggressive approach to storm. Their snow map has a 12-18" axis just east of 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'd say the chances of PHL flipping to rain is equal or greater than MDT NOT seeing half a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm thinking we will hear a lot about I 81 as a dividing line through PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm thinking we will hear a lot about I 81 as a dividing line through PA. You quite possibly may be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lol in the New England forum they seem upset they might not get TSSN or 18+ inch amounts, meanwhile down here in true central we are scrapping and happy over .2 or .3 precip. What a difference a region makes lol. Yeah, ever since the Sox and Pats have won championships and they get snowstorms some of them have become insufferable. Got down to -6.1 last night. Brrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm getting a good feeling Poconos, down to Schuylkill, Lehigh Valley and eastern sections of the LSV are going to get hammered. This seems to be setting up perfect, and tbh the actual poconos and E. Central PA have been in a major snow (12+) drought as bad as anyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 -4 last night here...is it sad that it doesn't seem that cold anymore? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 .50" almost on 81 now. Good increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From WPC: A HIGH SOCIETAL IMPACT WINTER STORM IS IMMINENT ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND VERY LIKELY TO PROCEED UP THE EAST COAST ON WED AND THURS... BASICALLY EXTENDING FROM TX/LA TO NEW ENGLAND. A VERY COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN WITH SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY... WHILE A MAMMOTH DOME OF SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONSUMES THE ENTIRE REGION AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AN IMPRESSIVE AND DYNAMIC IMPULSE OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL GLIDE ALONG THE NRN STREAM AND REACH THE NORTHEAST COAST ON TUES. MEANWHILE... THE LAST SHORT WAVE THAT IMPACTED THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE ACTIVE SRN BRANCH AND TRACK ACROSS TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ALREADY MOISTURE IS OVERRUNNING THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST FOR A WELL-ESTABLISHED PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS THE SOUTH CONTAINING SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS SHIELD OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST OR WITH THE PACE OF THE NRN STREAM IMPULSE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY 1 TO 3 OR 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM NRN AL/GA THROUGH UPSTATE SC INTO SERN/ERN NC WITH POSSIBLE .10 TO .50 INCH OF ICING THREAT FROM NRN/CENTRAL GA THROUGH MUCH OF SC INTO SERN NC AND THE BEGINNING OF A PARALYZING ICE STORM. AS THE SRN STREAM FEATURE CROSSES TX TO THE LWR MS VALLEY... SOME SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR AS PAC DYNAMICS NEAR THE NW WILL DIG DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS THE GENERALLY SUPPRESSED PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS TX/LA WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND AND LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS... WHILE INDUCING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT AND MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH TX BUT A DECENT AMOUNT OF ICING FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX THROUGH ERN TX/MUCH OF LA TO NORTH CENTRAL MS. WPC STAYED VERY CLOSE TO A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS... ECMWF AND 21Z/10 SREF MEAN. THE DIGGING UPSTREAM DYNAMICS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY CATCH UP WITH THE SRN STREAM DYNAMICS TO POTENTIALLY PHASE OVER THE SERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC TO INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST... WHILE ONE OF THE MORE IMPRESSIVE CONFLUENT ZONES ALOFT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED OVER THE EAST. A TRUE BAROCLINIC LEAF PRECIP SHIELD WILL EVOLVE FEATURING MAJOR ICING FROM ATL TOWARD CAE THEN SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD RDU AND A VERY HEALTHY DEFORMATION ZONE OF BANDING SNOWFALL FROM NRN GA/SWRN NC/NWRN SC NEWRD TO SWRN/CENTRAL VA BEFORE REACHING THE DC/BALT/PHIL METRO AREAS. THE ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN MIND-BOGGLING IF NOT HISTORICAL WITH ADDITIONAL .50 TO 1 INCH AXIS FROM ATL/AHN/AGS TO CAE TO RDU AND 8 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW FROM AVL/GSP TO ROA/LYH/CHO AND JUST SOUTH OF IAD/DCA WITH A POSSIBLE FOOT NEAR SWRN NC/NWRN SC. WPC CONTINUED THE COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET WITH SUPPORT FROM THE SREF MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF A CLASSIC EAST COAST WINTER STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah, ever since the Sox and Pats have won championships and they get snowstorms some of them have become insufferable. Got down to -6.1 last night. Brrr. Thank God we don't live up there and have to deal with that nonsense. I usually go into the other sub-forums to read their thoughts, but New England I avoid like the plague. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 -4 last night here...is it sad that it doesn't seem that cold anymore? Lol. true statement. The "new" cold normal has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What's the MSLP looking like on their Eastern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I can't post it from my phone but accuweather has a more aggressive approach to storm. Their snow map has a 12-18" axis just east of 81 Yes, Joe Lundberg was on early this morning calling for 12"-18" here in Lancaster. Seemed really ambitious for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Heavy weight on west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Euro snow map: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BgMUp_xCAAARd6E.png:large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well, the critical 12z suite is about to kick off. I think we're going to know our fate after this if WPC's discussion from yesterday holds true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 My Guess(It's a guess no one hammer me its a guess) 12z NAM holds it's ground, GFS ticks west slightly...GGEM holds stubborn..UKMET ticks east and Euro holds maybe ticks east a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Already had this sent to me asking when it will start... This is going to be a long day... Lol Since important 12z runs are about to start I have a plea to make.... We really are a great group here, but can we all please put reasoning behind comments on the model runs today? Just saying a run is better or worse leaves the many that are just viewing our analysis clueless as to what is going on. Same with trending west or east without giving reasoning like closed low at 500 or surface low tracking closer to coast. Also, if a run doesn't show snow it does not mean it is a bad run. We don't know what model is handling this set up correctly yet so we need to rely on what makes sense not what shows the most snow. Can't be stressed enough that the Great Lakes low is in play so can't be assuming things will trend west/precip shield expand west just because it does other times. End rant lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 image.jpg Already had this sent to me asking when it will start... This is going to be a long day... Lol Since important 12z runs are about to start I have a plea to make.... We really are a great group here, but can we all please put reasoning behind comments on the model runs today? Just saying a run is better or worse leaves the many that are just viewing our analysis clueless as to what is going on. Same with trending west or east without giving reasoning like closed low at 500 or surface low tracking closer to coast. Also, if a run doesn't show snow it does not mean it is a bad run. We don't know what model is handling this set up correctly yet so we need to rely on what makes sense not what shows the most snow. Can't be stressed enough that the Great Lakes low is in play so can't be assuming things will trend west/precip shield expand west just because it does other times. End rant lol Nice post. I agree. Keep the guessing and banter in proper thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hahahahaha who made that map?? I agree djr, that kicker is going to be the key to this entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 true statement. The "new" cold normal has changed.its not just then. NYC people talk about some "new" normal as if NYC should continue to avg 35" a year or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 image.jpg Already had this sent to me asking when it will start... This is going to be a long day... Lol Since important 12z runs are about to start I have a plea to make.... We really are a great group here, but can we all please put reasoning behind comments on the model runs today? Just saying a run is better or worse leaves the many that are just viewing our analysis clueless as to what is going on. Same with trending west or east without giving reasoning like closed low at 500 or surface low tracking closer to coast. Also, if a run doesn't show snow it does not mean it is a bad run. We don't know what model is handling this set up correctly yet so we need to rely on what makes sense not what shows the most snow. Can't be stressed enough that the Great Lakes low is in play so can't be assuming things will trend west/precip shield expand west just because it does other times. End rant lol and i'm sure those asking you questions, will not listen to your reasoning. They've already bought into the "blizzard"! People here at my work and FB friends, are already hook line and sinker in the "Blizzard" theory, or comparing this to the "super" Storm. Nobody wants to hear 2-4/4-6" or whatever it actually ends up. I'm liking our spot were in right now. Were having issues here at work with computers so i can't really look at the models, but what are we looking at for temps Wednesday into Thursday, mid to high 20's is what i thought i had seen yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 its not just then. NYC people talk about some "new" normal as if NYC should continue to avg 35" a year or something. I can only imagine what that forum will be like when a storm bullseyes us and screws them with slop to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 US National Weather Service State College PA The key northern stream upper disturbance is now digging southeastward through the northern Rockies. The track of that disturbance and resultant intensity/extent of Gulf Coast convection (thunderstorms) later today and tonight will largely determine how close to the coast the surface low can track. The stronger and deeper the convection, the closer the low can hug the coast, resulting in more snow accumulation in central and eastern PA (and perhaps even an intrusion of warmer air/mix/changeover into the southeast Piedmont). A worst case scenario could give a few to several inches more than the highest numbers over our far southeast. *But right now*, our forecast which is based on a consensus of all forecast guidance indicates a miss for much of central (including State College) and northern PA with a moderate to heavy snowstorm (6" or more) for the southeast quarter to third of PA. We hope to have more confidence in the above trends later today and tonight. Sounds like they are waiting to see how deep the convection is. From their NWS FB page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM still SE but, still it's the nam and not usual till about 12 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Holy ****. NAM is SE. lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM actually has RAIN for northeastern PA. You can't make this s**t up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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