I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From MA forum. Euro crushes York, Adams, and Lancaster. Met Wes Junkers indicated 12:1 ratios so 20 inch totals are possible in the southern tier if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow_ Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 is the lehigh valley still in the bullseye from the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seriously, 982 low like that should push2 foot snows into Pittsburgh. This thing doesn't make sense. I'll bet the western shield blossoms tomorrow! Yea we'll have to see how much influence that upstream system near the Great Lakes has when it comes to precip shield extent. Either way, a tucked in track like that on the coastline usually would have the central counties much more heavily involved with the Sus Valley and at least some meaningful snow getting into western PA. I'm generally a proponent on the precip shield reaching a bit further northwest than initially modeled in these situations and I think if a Euro/UKMET type track is realized, there can be measurable snow back to Pittsburgh. We still have a full cycle of models tomorrow and probably 12z runs Wednesday to really get those details honed in a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirSonic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 i just don't agree with the handling of the models. Usually with storms like this the precip shield will likely be much larger and further west then models are showing. I think places as far west as Pittsburgh could get hammered. I wouldn't be shocked to see the models trend much further west in the next day or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Glad you guy's are in the crosshairs in this one. Here's to spreading a little love back west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 is the lehigh valley still in the bullseye from the 12z? It's def in a good place, with the CCB hanging back in that general area. Allentown text has 1.2" of QPF and Reading is 1.3" MDT gets hammered good, around 1.3" of precip and a 6 hour frame of 0.51" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Borrowed from Philly subforum: ECM snowfall map from Wunderground: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WSW for Adams, York and Lancaster plus snow map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That kinda sucks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That kinda sucks lol They had to have averaged in the American Models which had very little precip west of the LSV. Use the GGEM,UK,and Euro only and the map would be way better for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 They had to have averaged in the American Models which had very little precip west of the LSV. Use the GGEM,UK,and Euro only and the map would be way better for all. Absolutely and better to be conservative and pull higher totals west later than go big early and pull back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Absolutely and better to be conservative and pull higher totals west later than go big early and pull back Exactly. CTP left enough time to easily expand watches if they needed to. Might be one of the few times where being in UNV might be better than back home even with the Laurels. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yea its a decent opening map from CTP. New 03z SREF plumes still aren't jumping on this storm quite yet, even in the Lower Sus Valley (LNS and THV about a 4" mean snow wise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yea its a decent opening map from CTP. New 03z SREF plumes still aren't jumping on this storm quite yet, even in the Lower Sus Valley (LNS and THV about a 4" mean snow wise). New Nam looks better. Precip actually gets back to just about I-99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 New Nam looks better. Precip actually gets back to just about I-99. Yea it's getting there somewhat. About the same back edge but def has heavier precip back into southeast PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yea it's getting there somewhat. About the same back edge but def has heavier precip back into southeast PA. Yeah, I think its suffering from convective feedback. It's low placement and movement were odd. Oh well time for bed. Here's hoping for a west trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamcity Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Pgh wants it too! Good luck guys, enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Pittsburgh NWS did add watches to border LWX's CWA-wide watch area in Garret (MD) and Tucker (WV) Counties about an hour ago. So a pretty broad area below the mason-dixon under a watch. I would suppose if that scenario were to play out with warning snows happening in those counties, you could extrapolate decent amounts up into the first tier or two of counties from the Laurels eastward. CTP taking the more conservative approach via weight towards the GFS/NAM and their associated ensembles. That much can discerned from their AFD this morning, I didn't see a mention of the foreign guidance on it...other than leaving pops in the west to allow for the more-western solutions. Classic American v. Foreign battle rages on. GEFS are still way southeast and not even really impacting the Lower Sus Valley with more than an inch or two of snow. EC ensembles seem to continue to be in good agreement with the mean essentially right with the op... even strength-wise having a 988 low right off the Jersey coast. Also has better extent getting measurable into the eastern 2/3 of PA and probably a half decent event back to the AOO/UNV/IPT corridor. There are likely still some solutions in that ensemble that are west of the euro op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Perhaps a dumb question, but why is there such a vast difference between the foreign and American models in the way they handle this system and the associated kicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Guys not sure it's the path that's going to matter as much as the inhibited precip on the western flank. Something to watch. We literally couldn't have a better path from the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Perhaps a dumb question, but why is there such a vast difference between the foreign and American models in the way they handle this system and the associated kicker? The Euro closes off the 500's quicker and holds it longer then the GFS which only closes it off momentarily. This results in a more amped up low with a more westerly track skirting the coast compared to the GFS which is weaker and farther out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Glad to see the Euro hold steady overnight...looks like a trip to my parents in Lebanon County might be in order. As for some current cold obs...down to -1° in Bellefonte, and my parents in their usual cold spot hit an impressive -10° this morning...coldest of the year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 JMA: GEM: UK: HPC QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Have to like the potential being shown for the south/eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of our area for a decent to substantial snow. Probably eat my words but knowing some of the strengths and weaknesses by both the GFS and the Euro I would think you would have to lean fairly heavily towards a Euro type solution. The GFS does well in a Northern stream dominate pattern which we have had for most of the winter and it was fairly obvious when it outperformed the Euro most of the time during this stretch. The last couple of weeks though we have had the Northern stream weaken with a southern stream ramping up and that plays more into the Euro's strength and thus we have seen the Euro outperforming the GFS on many occasions in this period. With this in mind I believe the GFS is trying to overplay the northern energy which gives us a more progressive flow with a weaker low farther off the coast (We have seen this time and time again over the years). On the other hand the Euro is probably giving just a touch to much credit to the southern energy which gives us a very amped up solution. With all that in mind I would not be surprised that we see a Euro type solution with a touch weaker low and a slight adjustment to the east (25-50 miles?) when it is all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wow the HPC really went north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Pittsburgh NWS did add watches to border LWX's CWA-wide watch area in Garret (MD) and Tucker (WV) Counties about an hour ago. So a pretty broad area below the mason-dixon under a watch. I would suppose if that scenario were to play out with warning snows happening in those counties, you could extrapolate decent amounts up into the first tier or two of counties from the Laurels eastward. CTP taking the more conservative approach via weight towards the GFS/NAM and their associated ensembles. That much can discerned from their AFD this morning, I didn't see a mention of the foreign guidance on it...other than leaving pops in the west to allow for the more-western solutions. Classic American v. Foreign battle rages on. GEFS are still way southeast and not even really impacting the Lower Sus Valley with more than an inch or two of snow. EC ensembles seem to continue to be in good agreement with the mean essentially right with the op... even strength-wise having a 988 low right off the Jersey coast. Also has better extent getting measurable into the eastern 2/3 of PA and probably a half decent event back to the AOO/UNV/IPT corridor. There are likely still some solutions in that ensemble that are west of the euro op. Not really understanding why there is not any mention of the Euro. It like they have it wrote off. Be interesting to see what their reasoning is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not really understanding why there is not any mention of the Euro. It like they have it wrote off. Be interesting to see what their reasoning is. I have been noticing that many of the statements being posted have leaned toward the GFS and NAM as well. I know that the Euro is the western outlier but considering that most of the guidance is moving towards it you have to wonder what they are seeing that we aren't. I fully expect to see the GFS/NAM make a marked movement towards the Euro by probably 12Z and at the very latest the 00Z. If I don't see that occur by then I will really start to worry that maybe the GFS/NAM are onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lol in the New England forum they seem upset they might not get TSSN or 18+ inch amounts, meanwhile down here in true central we are scrapping and happy over .2 or .3 precip. What a difference a region makes lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Second coldest morning of the winter here. Shattered the forecasted low by 7 degrees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 i had 10 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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