NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12Z crushed me.. how much west. lol. Not by too much so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think honestly the Canadian has the most sensible solution at this point. Those words probably never spoken before either ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not by too much so far. Man I get rolled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Damn it, shunts east at the end. 5-yard pickup by the GGEM before the NYC tackles swarmed on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM hits me good in York by the looks of it...Am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Damn it, shunts east at the end. 5-yard pickup by the GGEM before the NYC tackles swarmed on it. Haha, it didn't get precip back into true central as well as the 12z run did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Damn it, shunts east at the end. 5-yard pickup by the GGEM before the NYC tackles swarmed on it. I don't know. That seems like a few inches back here for UNV. Edit: I saw the low moves to the ENE. Well things still looking up. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I don't know. That seems like a few inches back here for UNV. Eh...I ran the loop and I doubt we get much more than 2-3mm verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Having the GGEM and UKMET completely against the GFS is a bit comforting. Hopefully the ECMWF doesn't flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Eh...I ran the loop and I doubt we get much more than 2-3mm verbatim. I think the good news is that it seems that only the American models have an insane QPF cutoff. There is a cutoff but more gradual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Canadian nails the entire area with heavy snow. We even get some wrap-around snows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think the good news is that it seems that only the American models have an insane QPF cutoff. There is a cutoff but more gradual. Either way still bad for us verbatim. We need a UK/ECM-hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the foreign models are right the southern tier will go glacial and break off into the ocean due to the weight of the snow. Epic runs today. Hopefully euro will share more love north and west of here so more of our forum can share in the pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 HPC was like never mind on GFS/NAM blend form 12Z.. lets go back to UKMET/Euro EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z UKMET / 12Z EC MEANCONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE 00Z NAM IS DIFFERENT EARLY IN THE SHORT RANGE...REGARDING ANRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLYTHIS MORNING. THIS CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM WITH A SLOWER/NORTHWARDDISPLACED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK BY WED MORNING OVER THE CNTRL HIGHPLAINS...A FEATURE WHICH HOLDS GOOD CONTINUITY IN THEGFS/ECMWF/UKMET. THIS RESULTS IN A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH INTHE NAM BY EARLY THU OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.THE ENSEMBLE SCATTER LOW PLOTS ARE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THANYESTERDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE EXPECTED...BUT HAVE MADE A WHOLESALESHIFT SLOWER AND WEST. THE ECMWF MEMBERS ARE ON THE WEST SIDE OFTHE LOW PLOT ENVELOPE...FOLLOWED BY THE GEFS/CMC MEMBERS JUSTRIGHT OF THE ECMWF MEMBER CLUSTER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THISPRECLUDES USE OF THE 12Z CMC WHICH IS MUCH FASTER THAN THECONSENSUS. DUE TO THE ECMWF AND ITS MEAN BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDEOF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHICH TRACKS UP THEEAST COAST... DESPITE THE WESTWARD TREND SEEN IN ALL OF THEMODELS...THE SAFER PLACE IS JUST A BIT EAST OF THE ECMWF. THE 00ZGFS POSITION LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT APPEARS TOO WEAK AND MAY HAVESOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WHICH DEVELOPS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.THE 12Z UKMET APPEARS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE WHEN BLENDED WITHTHE 12Z EC MEAN...WITH THE EC MEAN A BIT EAST OF THE OPERATIONALECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Damn it, shunts east at the end. 5-yard pickup by the GGEM before the NYC tackles swarmed on it. It changes me over to rain at the end, but not after a huge amount of front end snow. The storm seems to occlude and the kicker catches up with it. The UK keeps the kicker further west and slower. The GFS/NAM are quicker with it. We probably won't know for sure until late tomorrow what the fate will be with that, and therefore all of our fates. I'll bet on the Euro having an amped run again based on the UK/GGEM, but maybe a hair less so than 12z. At least that's my hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 fwiw (almost nada), the NAVGEM is a good bit west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 All right EURO...give us good news, please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Precip to the mason dixon line at 54. Low and precip shield positioning/extent seems pretty close to 12z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 All right EURO...give us good news, please... Track about the same, a tiny bit less. qpf. Still huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UKMET accumulations in mm.... Kinda disappointed, you would think a low locked into the coast like this wouldnt have such a sharp cut off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Track about the same, a tiny bit less. qpf. Still huge. Sounds like the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hour 60 the .1-.25" line runs in an arc from roughly Morgantown, WV to Altoona to Scranton. Hour 66 .1-.25" encompasses places like UNV and IPT and those two places are still on the end of the .1-.25 for the 72 hour frame. Eastern Penn getting hit good again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UKMET accumulations in mm.... Kinda disappointed, you would think a low locked into the coast like this wouldnt have such a sharp cut off... There would be more after that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 ECMWF 982mb L sitting right on Jersey shore... UKMET Copy. Looks good. Much slower than CMC???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 All right, we're still in a good position for a 3-6/4-7 event from the globals with time to still trend west. I'll take it. My concern is that there seems to be some tightening of the precip shield despite better tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 All right, we're still in a good position for a 3-6/4-7 event from the globals with time to still trend west. I'll take it. That run was sick. If that precip shield comes NW like 50 miles, dear god. Just NW of DC this run gets 2.4" qpf lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seriously, 982 low like that should push2 foot snows into Pittsburgh. This thing doesn't make sense. I'll bet the western shield blossoms tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seriously, 982 low like that should push2 foot snows into Pittsburgh. This thing doesn't make sense. I'll bet the western shield blossoms tomorrow! I really want to hug you right now. That would make my week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Seriously, 982 low like that should push2 foot snows into Pittsburgh. This thing doesn't make sense. I'll bet the western shield blossoms tomorrow! Western kicker system limits precip shield to the west. How much, we will find out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That run was sick. If that precip shield comes NW like 50 miles, dear god. Just NW of DC this run gets 2.4" qpf lol.Precip fields tend to become more expansive and less consolidated as a dynamic event like this nears. Even if there is little movement in the bullseye it is likely to expand in coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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