NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Compare hour 48 to hour 60... NW Precip shield much further SE and the mixing line down in SC is further SE as well. Should make a pretty big difference down the road and take a turn like the NAM did. We'll see what GFS shows. The RGEM only goes out to hour 54...what hour 60 are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The RGEM only goes out to hour 54...what hour 60 are you talking about? Yeah, they are not the same model. I'll correct myself by saying Hr 48 compared to the GGEM is SE. Thanks EDIT : I also didnt see the 18z RGEM so I cant compare... I'd agree with the statement that it looks like an amped version of NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS coming west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like the GFS is a swing and a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Over in the NYC forum, Earthlight and some others are saying it's more amped (at least compared to the NAM). Scratching my head here...it is more amped then nam a little and gfs for sure but if you compare the rgem to the euro at the same time it is well east and weaker. Euro is back over south central ga with slp while regenerate is off the coast already. Next frame euro has slp inland over sc and rgem is already east of there. But doesn't mean it won't pull in later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 People need to stop posting unless they know what they are talking about. GFS is better finally. H5 better and so is track. A few inches back to 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 00z gfs looks much better than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 People are honestly getting ridiculous with these maps and terms. A power company blamed the polar vortex for increased wattage rates I really can't believe the very high numbers getting thrown out by some at this point. It's going to take a humongous bust to tone down some of these forecasters. While I do personally think this will end up on the western end of guidance eventually and likely a significant snowstorm for some portion of the Mid-Atlantic/NE, I've not seen enough personally to more than acknowledge a region where 6"+ is possible. Certainly not going to throw out 12-20"+ like we're giving it away on the Oprah Show... and I'm for damn sure not calling it a possible blizzard right now. While it's still early in the game for using the SREF plumes/probs, I don't really see alot of support yet. While there are a few big members, 21z SREF mean QPF in Harrisburg, for example is about 0.3".The tight precip shield being portrayed is a concern, especially for me, Jamie, and the rest of the UNV gang back this way. The I-81 corridor below I-80 should be okay for at least a light-moderate snowfall. I think it will ultimately be a bit more expansive, and get into C-PA more given the generally favorable low positioning. How much so is still up for debate. It also seems to me that this storm maxes out with its high end potential rather early, mainly for the Mid-Atlantic region more so than the northeast. We shall see how things play out tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looks like the GFS is a swing and a miss. The surface low is about the same position vs. 18z but more intense. It also looks like the precip field expands farther from the low center on this run. It has 0.2-0.3" QPF back to MDT and more farther southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 People need to stop posting unless they know what they are talking about. GFS is better finally. H5 better and so is track. A few inches back to 81. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks MAG. It's like being down 42-0 at halftime and now at the end of 3 it's 42-21. Rallying but will we have enough time? Euro, you're under center. Don't go Tony Romo on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here's the UKMET...comments? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42802-february-12-13-storm-part-ii/?p=2761947 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UK looks awesome! Into the redzone we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here's the UKMET...comments? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42802-february-12-13-storm-part-ii/?p=2761947 Yeah, what happens post 60 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah, what happens post 60 hours? BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UK is definitely at least a moderate event all the way back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What are we supposed to believe? Is there anyway the Euro holds what it showed at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What are we supposed to believe? Is there anyway the Euro holds what it showed at 12z? Sure can. Ukmet is not far from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Have we all had a minute to breathe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Have we all had a minute to breathe?I blame S&S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How cold will it get tonight? Down to 13 here already. Maybe 0? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 1st and 10, ball at the I-95 15. EURO under center, GGEM the running back, GEFS the wideout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I blame S&S. Seriously. Somebody give me their facebook accounts. I need to address them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How cold will it get tonight? Down to 13 here already. Maybe 0? Take a look at my temp. Down to 6 on my station and 4 down the street at the Wunderground location. At the forecast low already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hubba hubba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here's the UKMET...comments? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42802-february-12-13-storm-part-ii/?p=2761947 Running the low inside over eastern NC to it's eventual position just off the Jersey Coast is why it gets precip way deeper into PA. This is about how the Euro has been wrt this part of the storm tracking from the Southeast. Having the low developing off the SC/NC coasts and turning up from there ala the GFS/NAM isn't going to to cut it for most of us in here without downstream blocking to completely close the storm off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Deep breath....GGEM is east of the UK but west of its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Deep breath....GGEM is east of the UK but west of its 12z run. 12Z crushed me.. how much west. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That low is west. Precip will follow and it does keep moving west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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