snowNAO Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is a solid hit from DC -> Harrisburg (9" - 13"). Even Williamsport scrapes 6". What are you looking at lol..not even close to that for harrisburg or williamsport. IT TOOK A BIG LEAP TOWARDS THE GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is a solid hit from DC -> Harrisburg (9" - 13"). Even Williamsport scrapes 6". ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM leans toward GFS... I'm not really liking the American trends. The NAM and GFS are just not giving Central PA much loving so far for this event. I know the Euro's solid reputation, but can it be wrong this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM is a solid hit from DC -> Harrisburg (9" - 13"). Even Williamsport scrapes 6". Which NAM was that? The 0z run i'm looking at coming out has essentially nothing other than maybe up to an inch in the southernmost LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM loses a ton of snow as you get W and N of 95. I can't see what it has for SC PA, it's snowing, but it's not a bomb. It's the NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM leans toward GFS... DEC 09 storm the GFS and NAM gave me basically 0" till about 36hrs out then all a sudden 15-20". Models to care about tonight are EURO/GGEM and UKMET. If they stay solid then the NAM/GFS can bite it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm not really liking the American trends. The NAM, and GFS are just not giving Central PA much loving so far for this event. I know the Euro's solid reputation, but can it be wrong this time? Not a good start to 0z at all. If Euro collapses tonight look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I looked at the wrong image folks, sorry! Disregard my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Best map i've seen considering the model war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not a good start to 0z at all. If Euro collapses tonight look out. It's the NAM. The NAM... every run has been different. 12Z sucked, 18Z was a bit better, 0Z sucked. Who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 All right, we'll have to wait for the globals. Can't jump the bridge because of a bad NAM run, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That map looks very reasonable Zak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 If the GGEM and the Euro shift east then I will be worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Extreme spread. We won't know much till tomorrow afternoon, maybe night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 when does the ggem and gfs run again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 when does the ggem and gfs run again. Model run times. SREF: 8:20, 2:20 (AM/PM) NAM: 9:00, 3:00 (AM/PM) GFS: 10:30; 4:30 (AM/PM) GEFS (Ensembles): 12:00, 6:00 (AM/PM) RGEM: 10:20, 4:00 (AM/PM) UKMET: 10:40 (AM/PM) GGEM (CMC): 11:00 (AM/PM) ECMWF (Euro/ECM): 12:45 (AM/PM) ECM ensembles: 3:00 (AM/PM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Thanks Voyager Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Guys...go get a 60-hour precip map on the (0Z) NAM from hour 84. Then, look SE from the North Carolina coast. Apparently NCEP has told the NAM that Valentine's Day is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 LOL...S and S has put out like 5 different warnings on this since this afternoon. It's no wonder the public feels like there's a constant threat of feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM shifts SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not a good start to 0z at all. If Euro collapses tonight look out. The NAM past 36 hrs isn't worth freaking out about, at all. I'm looking forward to the Euro to see what it does. Selfishly, I kind of hope for a slight east shift, but if not I'll be happy to see you guys finally get a major snow. Either way, I hope we are all happy on Thursday. Still time to watch all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I say that from now on, if we talk about model runs you have describe what the model is showing for our whole area. Our regional forum stretches from US 219 the whole way to Scranton/ Wilkes-Barre area down to Lancaster. That's a huge area we cover. I feel its only fair to all who post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM shifts SE.The Canadian might be on to something, for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM shifts SE. Not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just saw RGEM...looks like NAM but slightly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Is it southeast or isn't it?? My God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 RGEM shifts SE. Over in the NYC forum, Earthlight and some others are saying it's more amped (at least compared to the NAM). Scratching my head here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not really. It's a slightly more amped version of the NAM. Might be enough in later frames to get meaningful snow back to I-81. I-99/Rt. 220 really needs for a very amped outcome like the Euro to get much from this. The best shot may be eastern/southern parts of the region, from AVP-MDT south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not really. Compare hour 48 to hour 60... NW Precip shield much further SE and the mixing line down in SC is further SE as well. Should make a pretty big difference down the road and take a turn like the NAM did. We'll see what GFS shows. EDIT : I know GGEM and RGEM are not the same model but just saying its SE compared to GGEM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Is it southeast or isn't it?? My God. It looks like the NAM, but a little west and more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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